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#1
10-09-2006, 06:47 PM
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Now, Bernardini can't be compared with horses like Seattle Slew and Bid right now because most people wouldn't be able to handle it, but I think he will by the time he is done ......just my opinion.. I think he's better than Ghostzapper right now......again, just my opinion.... 
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#2
10-09-2006, 07:15 PM
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Here's a serious question because I really don't know the answer and I'm hoping someone here does. How can they give Bernardini a Beyer Figure that's considered remotely accurate without having any (or very very few) Mile and a quarter races on the dirt at Belmont?? And that can go for any horse at any track.. The beyer number Bernardini received made me think of it is all.
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#3
10-09-2006, 07:21 PM
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How could you even give Beyers to horses like Bernardini and Discreet Cat when they aren't even asked to brake a sweat? Does that mean we can add like 10 points to their Beyer to compensate for if they were actually asked to lay down and run.....Bernardini's 117 and Discreet Cat's 115 in their last races were giving speed figures for workouts....
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#4
10-09-2006, 07:23 PM
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Funny, but some would say that horses like bernardini would perform worse if seriously challenged. I, for one, doubt they could perform a lot better. But, hey, what do I know.
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#5
10-09-2006, 07:33 PM
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And I agree with you about them "not being asked." I watched the jcgc and saw Castellano still as a statue, but it still looked like Bernardini was running his ass off. Maybe the whip will discourage him.. It doesn't always make them run much faster. Last edited by TitanSooner : 10-09-2006 at 09:30 PM.
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#6
10-09-2006, 07:37 PM
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Has Bernardini ever put up a Sheet# that compares to GZ or St. Liam? The best I have seen is a -2, I don't think he can really be considered great unless he cracks the -4 range on Thoro...If not, he's really no different than Smarty, Afleet Alex, Point Given, or Flower Alley for that matter...
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#7
10-09-2006, 07:50 PM
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#8
10-09-2006, 08:14 PM
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#9
10-09-2006, 07:38 PM
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I don't believe that just because a horse looks like he's not working hard, that he suddenly will pick up and go faster when he has to...
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#10
10-09-2006, 08:13 PM
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#11
10-09-2006, 08:12 PM
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None of these could compute those efforts...the point is that if you keep up with the upper echelon of mainstream racing you shouldn't need somebody to quantify how good a race was....you obviously love Mr. Beyer so I'll just leave it at that....If I had a nickel for everytime he was wrong in his columns I'd be more rich a lot moreso than most any other handicapper's columns I have read on consistent basis...just saying...
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#12
10-09-2006, 10:48 PM
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OK, Joel, you asked for it. First I will deal with the stupidity of your earlier post where you suggested the Beyer figs were meaningless because in your opinion, whether right or wrong, the horse did not give a maximum effort, Anybody that understands speed figures, which you apparantly don't because of this comment on your part, realizes they are nothing more than a numerical analyisis of how a horse ran on that given day....whether they are Beyers, Ragozins or Jerry Browns. It is up to a horseplayer, or analyst, to decide if they felt the horse could have run faster. The number is based on the final time of that race. I am shocked you didn't realize this. Secondly, your elitist comment that Ragozins are somehow better because they are more expensive is really correlated to your opinion I dealt with in my first paragraph. You obviously don't understand speed figures. Personally, I don't like Ragozin's numbers, or the Thorographs for that matter, because I do not believe in their use of certain variables. I don't like them because, unlike you, I actually understand them. I think weight is meaningless and they don't. Now, maybe I'm wrong, but for my handicapping my feeling about weight works. I believe that the fact that the Fall Highweight produces the same relative base numbers year in and year out substantiates my opinion. If others disagree....fine. I also strongly disagree with them adding ground loss to their numbers. First of all, and probably most importantly, I think ground loss is deceptive and many times horses making wide moves are getting better trips than horses that save ground. For this reason, in addition to possible track biases, I believe adding ground loss to figures perverts and effectively ruins the numbers. This is why I prefer a base number like the Beyer figures, as since I do extensive trip analysis, I can extrapolate from a base figure how I believe the horse actually ran. I do not denigrate others for liking the Ragozins or Thorographs, and have great intellectual respect for them, I just don't like them personally. And, finally, since you decided to make this personal with your " you obviously love Mr. Beyer " comment, let me just detail how lame that is....along with your idiotic addition " If I had a nickel for everytime he was wrong in his columns I'd be more rich a lot moreso than most any other handicapper's columns I have read on consistent basis...". Yes, Andy Beyer is a friend of mine, this is established, but if you think that is why I like his numbers then you have paid zero attention to my posts. I form my own opinions, I respect some opinions that I don't agree with, but I don't buy somebody's logic because I happen to like them personally and your suggestion of such is insulting...which is funny coming from you who whined recently about somebody unfortunately taking comments in an argument personally. This underhanded comment from you was nothing if not personal. Am I mad? No...but I think you're an ass for making that comment. Not as much of an ass, of course, as you are for the other quote from you. Sorry if you fail to see Andy Beyer's contributions to this industry, but quite frankly, I would love to see your list of others who have contributed more and frankly from someone like you that comment just smacks of pathetic jealousy. Last edited by blackthroatedwind : 10-09-2006 at 10:57 PM.
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#13
10-09-2006, 11:23 PM
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<First I will deal with the stupidity of your earlier post where you suggested the Beyer figs were meaningless because in your opinion, whether right or wrong, the horse did not give a maximum effort, Anybody that understands speed figures, which you apparantly don't because of this comment on your part, realizes they are nothing more than a numerical analyisis of how a horse ran on that given day....whether they are Beyers, Ragozins or Jerry Browns. It is up to a horseplayer, or analyst, to decide if they felt the horse could have run faster. The number is based on the final time of that race. I am shocked you didn't realize this.> How does the betting public understand that the horse didn't give his all which equated to the beyer fig on any given performance then? It doesn't say it in the Form and people can't watch and take record of EVERY single horse race run in North America... <Secondly, your elitist comment that Ragozins are somehow better because they are more expensive is really correlated to your opinion I dealt with in my first paragraph. You obviously don't understand speed figures. Personally, I don't like Ragozin's numbers, or the Thorographs for that matter, because I do not believe in their use of certain variables. I don't like them because, unlike you, I actually understand them. I think weight is meaningless and they don't. Now, maybe I'm wrong, but for my handicapping my feeling about weight works. I believe that the fact that the Fall Highweight produces the same relative base numbers year in and year out substantiates my opinion. If others disagree....fine. I also strongly disagree with them adding ground loss to their numbers. First of all, and probably most importantly, I think ground loss is deceptive and many times horses making wide moves are getting better trips than horses that save ground. For this reason, in addition to possible track biases, I believe adding ground loss to figures perverts and effectively ruins the numbers. This is why I prefer a base number like the Beyer figures, as since I do extensive trip analysis, I can extrapolate from a base figure how I believe the horse actually ran. I do not denigrate others for liking the Ragozins or Thorographs, and have great intellectual respect for them, I just don't like them personally.> I specifically liked all of your personal little jabs you added in the above paragraph...classy touch...as for loss of ground and weight, I believe the opposite that you do and that is why I'm a proponent of Rags...better system IMO....all good claim trainers claim off of it because they understand it is the most acurate system for identifying the fastest horses....Dutrow, Amoss, Cole Norman, Asmussen, etc....Bill Hartak told me once that anybody who doesn't belive that the rail is the shortest way around is an idiot..it was one of those Yogi Berra-ish old-time comments that on the surface is too obvious, but then I thought of how many top races he road in his lifetime and I began to understand what he really meant....loss of ground MATTERS....watch track and field events and you'll see there is a reason the runners gravitate to the bottom of the track....as for weight, my theory is that they are 1300-pound animals with 115-pound jockeys on their backs...I just am not one to cry over 8 or so pounds...hell, you could strap eight more pounds to me and let me run and I would barely notice it.....just a poor argument to me... <And, finally, since you decided to make this personal with your " you obviously love Mr. Beyer " comment, let me just detail how lame that is....along with your idiotic addition " If I had a nickel for everytime he was wrong in his columns I'd be more rich a lot moreso than most any other handicapper's columns I have read on consistent basis...". Yes, Andy Beyer is a friend of mine, this is established, but if you think that is why I like his numbers then you have paid zero attention to my posts. I form my own opinions, I respect some opinions that I don't agree with, but I don't buy somebody's logic because I happen to like them personally and your suggestion of such is insulting...which is funny coming from you who whined recently about somebody unfortunately taking comments in an argument personally. This underhanded comment from you was nothing if not personal. Am I mad? No...but I think you're an ass for making that comment. Not as much of an ass, of course, as you are for the other quote from you. Sorry if you fail to see Andy Beyer's contributions to this industry, but quite frankly, I would love to see your list of others who have contributed more and frankly from someone like you that comment just smacks of pathetic jealousy.> I find it funny and borderline hypocritical that you have a problem with persoanl comments now, especially after your meltdown last week  You know what you're doing...don't patronize me..shame on you for that....my comments were knowhere in the same stratosphere of personal atttacks as yours were....and you continue with these little threads directed persnoally at me with your little subliminal agendas....I can't tell you how disapointed I am...I have never directed a post towards somebody trying to evoke a negative reaction like you and other posters do on a frequent basis....must be a New Yorker thing or something....you guys are tough to figure out...just make your posts and state your opinions and leave it at that....your insecure comments give off an obvious radiance of your character and I've heard you were better than that.... BTW, don't dislike Andy Beyer in any way...I don't even know the guy!!! but when he tels the world that because of his scientific method of understanding horses perfromances that Invasor was way too slow to win the Pimlico Special and be a top hanidcap horse in America - comon, man...how much credability do you deserve?...He never retracted it either.... I'm sure he's a great man and actually, I've talked to people who I really respect in the industry who know him and have validated that....don't make it sound like I'm his enemy....I was just voicing my opinion that his Speed figures are for the leyman horse players and not to be taking litterally for the serious players and horse claimers, etc......
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#14
10-09-2006, 11:54 PM
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#15
10-09-2006, 07:50 PM
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#16
10-09-2006, 08:17 PM
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Hybrid Mode
