![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
#1
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Major rant here:
What has happened since the olden days, when trainers raced horses instead of training them, each meet had a series of races, usually two weeks apart, of increasing distances leading up to the centerpiece race of the meet for the division, which was the big money race - the Widener for the older horses, the Flamingo for the 3yos, the Turf Cup for turf horses, etc. A horse like Ack Ack or Forego or Precisionist would run in such a series to get them fit and just as often win them, despite carrying highweight. These horses were as adept at running 7f as they were at 10f. And sometimes the supposed sprinters surprised their connections - few people thought the speedy Native Diver would stay 10f, yet when he went for the big money in the Hollywood Gold Cup he proved them wrong. The all-round horse was the ideal before the Breeders' Cup came along to give sprinters and milers a big payday without having to prove themselves at longer distances. Nowadays, some horses have never been given a chance to show they can stay because they are so good at sprinting or miling (which includes 9f); maybe they try it once and fail because circumstances are less than ideal (off track, Derby-field trouble, etc.) and are never given another chance. And many Eastern tracks have helped horses avoid running long by playing up 9f races (which used to be preps) and downgrading or omitting the classic-distance races (looking at you, GP and NYRA and MD and CD ). Let's face it - if Precisionist or Ack Ack were running today, would your trainer try to condition him to run long? Or would they be happy that he can win G1s at 6f or 8f or 9f on natural talent and clean up in weak G1s before they go to stud? Maybe you run him in the BC Classic and he actually wins or places because of his innate talent, then you're golden. But if he fails, you can still stand him for lots of cash because everybody knows that milers make the best stallions (for 6f-9f races, that is). As to speed figures and sheets numbers, based as they are on times of races, I find them a near waste of my brain cells. If you think that a $5K claimer that runs a big number can win you a graded stakes race, go claim it and prove it. The reason so many graded stakes are weak is that there are TOO MANY graded stakes for the way horses are campaigned these days. 6 to 8 weeks between races as opposed to 2 to 3 weeks means that the good horses are not available for all the races in the interval. Yet the racetracks keep adding more 'stakes races' (glorified overnights) and the grading committee abets their irresponsibility. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
__________________
" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere " |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#4
|
||||
|
||||
![]() I have a lot of respect for Brown and how he has improved on Rags ideas and created a useful product. It is extremely difficult to believe in his argument about how much faster the horses are today even after you follow his well prepared argument. At the end of the day, however, it really doesn't matter for day to day handicapping with Thorograph. The numbers he creates today are for today's races, and whether or not the animals are faster than ones 30 years ago is a moot point.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit. |
#5
|
||||
|
||||
![]() It is not a moot point if the theory is wrong and it is a part of how he makes figures.
|
#6
|
||||
|
||||
![]() As the speed of light slows ( and it is on that irrevocable road)...horseys will appear faster.
But not in Australia. They don't know about light down there. |
#7
|
||||
|
||||
![]() The theory has to do with the composition of the surfaces, and doesn't affect comparisons between current runners.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit. |
#8
|
||||
|
||||
![]() John's Burger, eh
Speaking of Jerry B, btw … noticed that he started a "Rachel" thread over there a day or so after RA got exposed at the classic American distance. Claimed she bounced off the two previous "big efforts" … and that the race didn't prove that she couldn't get the distance. Say what?????????????? |