8/28 (SAR): Travers Day

[Travis Stone]

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

[randallscott35]

The whole card is absolutely terrific. Excited.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

Would not be a surprise. Most of them would not surprise me. Distance might help?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Pace projections for the Travers based solely on prior pace figures:

After 6 furlongs (4fs left to go at this point)

Leader: Miner's Reserve (1.25 lengths)

2nd place: A Little Warm (1.25 behind leader)

3rd place: Friend or Foe (3 behind leader)

4th place: Super Saver (4 behind leader)

5th place: First Dude (5 behind leader)

6th place: Trappe Shot (5.5 behind leader)

7th place: Afleet Express (5.75 behind leader)

8th place: Afleet Again (8 behind leader)

9th place: Fly Down (9.5 behind leader)

10th place: Ice Box (10.5 behind leader)

11th place: Admiral Alex (15.5 behind leader)


Obvioulsy - Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm have wildly superior early speed to the rest of this field. Because they avoided a duel last time, and each lollygagged relative to their strong speed .. they stayed on to finish 1-2 at 9fs.

First Dude has all 1's on his form in his last three races and gets blinkers - but he's been setting slowpoke paces on unpressured leads in his last 3. Even though Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm are much faster .. those two will be under strong restraint and there's no way FD will be 5 back early like his numbers say.

There's also no way Admiral Alex will be 15+ back after six furlongs - he will have to work MUCH harder to stay in a competitive spot this time.. that should impact his performance negatively and he'll be lucky to run back to that 87 he ran last time.

The distance and pace should perfectly suit Fly Down. He's my pick.

[clyde]

That's all I needed to hear.




IceBox to win.

[ateamstupid]

Two things: How come no Lisa's Booby Trap in the Victory Ride? Also, is Betsy the stable manager for Stidham? When the hell is Comedero going to get an actual test?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Two things: How come no Lisa's Booby Trap in the Victory Ride? Also, is Betsy the stable manager for Stidham? When the hell is Comedero going to get an actual test?

Lisa's Booby Trap goes in the Riskaverse.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Two things: How come no Lisa's Booby Trap in the Victory Ride? Also, is Betsy the stable manager for Stidham? When the hell is Comedero going to get an actual test?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Two things: How come no Lisa's Booby Trap in the Victory Ride? Also, is Betsy the stable manager for Stidham? When the hell is Comedero going to get an actual test?

They stupidly entered Comedero in the Select at Monmouth after Discreetly Mine crushed the Amsterdam. Stidham thought the King's Bishop would be too quick a comeback and at this point they're looking at stretching him out.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by clyde

That's all I needed to hear.




IceBox to win.

He's got a great chance in there. I'm using him underneath.

He beat the eventual Ohio Derby winner Pleasant Prince by a nose when he got a similar pace setup at 9fs in the Fla Derby.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's got a great chance in there. I'm using him underneath.

He beat the eventual Ohio Derby winner Pleasant Prince by a nose when he got a similar pace setup at 9fs in the Fla Derby.

I could beat PleasantPrince.



Using another method here.

Trappe Shot

[Payson Dave]

The Maidens on Travers day look pretty good to me...

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

4th place: Super Saver (4 behind leader)

That's probably how it will be, but remember last year when this colt would zip the opening half of 8f races in something like :45&2? Pletcher sure trained the speed right out of him.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Obvioulsy - Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm have wildly superior early speed to the rest of this field. Because they avoided a duel last time, and each lollygagged relative to their strong speed .. they stayed on to finish 1-2 at 9fs.

No speed bias help last out for these 2? How does either even sniff the wire on a fair track going 10F?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No speed bias help last out for these 2? How does either even sniff the wire on a fair track going 10F?

No, there was no speed bias on Jim Dandy day in my opinion.

If there was, it would only further help Fly Down.. but I don't believe there was.

The only wire-to-wire winner on dirt that day was a longshot - but he won his only other dirt start despite getting involved in an absolutely destructive no holds barred speed duel with a horse who was eased after five furlongs and came right back to run three markedly improved races.

Looking at the other races - a few of them I bet that day - I didn't see anything resembling a speed bias.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No, there was no speed bias on Jim Dandy day in my opinion.

Six 9F races run @ SAR 7/30, 31 & 8/01

7/30 -- was that clown race won by Persistently, where the jocks played knockouts with each other and the last move won --- we'll throw this one out

7/31 --

R2 --- the Admiral Alex race goes 3-4-1 around the track but the top 3 were within 2 length of the lead at all times

R7 -- Arcodoro wires @ huge odds. the 3rd horse was 3rd, < 3 lengths back the 1st 3 calls.

R9 -- Jim Dandy goes 2-1 (essentially a duel around the track), with nothing running late

8/01

R8 -- CUrlin stakes --- Winslow HOmer goes wire to wire in a pronounced wipeout, that went 1-2 around the track

R9 -- Ruffian -- 1-2 around the track

Now, some of these results might make good sense in terms of the setups/pace but it also appears that there was a 2-turn bias on those days.

I don't want the Jim Dandy horses back. That much is clear.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

I'm done with First Dude.

Since I'm not sold on A Little Warm going a mile and a quarter, I'm going with Afleet Express.


Two highly regarded 2yo's go in allowance races earlier in the card, and probably take money- and I don't like either of them in these spots. Could be good opportunities.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm done with First Dude.

Since I'm not sold on A Little Warm going a mile and a quarter, I'm going with Afleet Express.


Two highly regarded 2yo's go in allowance races earlier in the card, and probably take money- and I don't like either of them in these spots. Could be good opportunities.

Ka-pow

[clyde]

Only you.