Admiral Alex in the Travers

-BT- · #1 08-24-2010, 02:25 PM

Is the whole premise of this thread to prove to people that he has a chance?
Or
Is this yet another thread where people disagree and you take the other side for arguments sake?

It sounds like you think he has a “shot”. is your money gonna be on him Saturday, is he a horse you’re gonna use? If so why? Don’t just take the counter side of everyone’s opinion for the sake of arguing. Sure his FIRST AND ONLY race was a good one, nothing eye-popping, awesome, good for him and good for his owners. If I can recall, 90% of that field didn’t have one start under their belt, which goes without saying but it was also a maiden field? Sure he can improve, but in a lot of people’s minds its not likely you go from a maiden to being a grade 1 winner in your next start at the age of 3, at least anywhere but cali. Your on paper argument doesn’t hold much weight considering your entire basis of this horse is off 1 race… a maiden victory. 87 beyers can be had by 20K claimers at the spa, does that mean on paper they’re as good as G2 and G1 horses?
Keep in mind horses also tend to bounce off big efforts as well. I, like most who have replied, think he has an uphill battle. I wont say impossible, b/c nothing Is impossible in this sport, just not likely

-bt-

RockHardTen1985 · #2 08-24-2010, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

Is the whole premise of this thread to prove to people that he has a chance?
Or
Is this yet another thread where people disagree and you take the other side for arguments sake?

It sounds like you think he has a “shot”. is your money gonna be on him Saturday, is he a horse you’re gonna use? If so why? Don’t just take the counter side of everyone’s opinion for the sake of arguing. Sure his FIRST AND ONLY race was a good one, nothing eye-popping, awesome, good for him and good for his owners. If I can recall, 90% of that field didn’t have one start under their belt, which goes without saying but it was also a maiden field? Sure he can improve, but in a lot of people’s minds its not likely you go from a maiden to being a grade 1 winner in your next start at the age of 3, at least anywhere but cali. Your on paper argument doesn’t hold much weight considering your entire basis of this horse is off 1 race… a maiden victory. 87 beyers can be had by 20K claimers at the spa, does that mean on paper they’re as good as G2 and G1 horses?
Keep in mind horses also tend to bounce off big efforts as well. I, like most who have replied, think he has an uphill battle. I wont say impossible, b/c nothing Is impossible in this sport, just not likely

-bt-

Go back and read the thread... Multiple people said he has a shot, including Steve. I am the only one who was insulted.

miraja2 · #3 08-24-2010, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

Is the whole premise of this thread to prove to people that he has a chance?
Or
Is this yet another thread where people disagree and you take the other side for arguments sake?

It sounds like you think he has a “shot”. is your money gonna be on him Saturday, is he a horse you’re gonna use? If so why? Don’t just take the counter side of everyone’s opinion for the sake of arguing.

He asked a question about an interesting possible starter in one of the biggest races of the year. I don't see what's so wrong about that.
Why not have a discussion about the horse? I don't think he has much of a shot either, but it seems worthy of a discussion. You really want/expect him to tell you who he's going to bet on already? That seems a bit premature. PG85 made his argument about why he liked the horse's debut, and although I don't entirely agree with it, he did make some points.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 08-24-2010, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

He asked a question about an interesting possible starter in one of the biggest races of the year. I don't see what's so wrong about that.
Why not have a discussion about the horse? I don't think he has much of a shot either, but it seems worthy of a discussion. You really want/expect him to tell you who he's going to bet on already? That seems a bit premature. PG85 made his argument about why he liked the horse's debut, and although I don't entirely agree with it, he did make some points.

Thanks.
Im not even sure I like him, but I thought Andy was a bit extreme. Like you said, I responded with some facts and points about why he is not impossible and Andy insulted me.... Then EpBurns comes out of no where talking **** about stuff that was in the news paper the next day, and on DRF.com that night. Anyone at the track new the owner was talking Travers, but hey the guy has an inside connection with the barn.....

hockey2315 · #5 08-24-2010, 09:41 PM

i still don't understand what this horse supposedly has going for him. . . it's not like his debut was even that impressive.

RockHardTen1985 · #6 08-24-2010, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

i still don't understand what this horse supposedly has going for him. . . it's not like his debut was even that impressive.

87 beyer first out going 9f is ok in my book.
Wide the entire trip...
Win over the track.
Horrible crop, the race is well matched with bad horses. The winning beyer will be what, maybe a 100?

hockey2315 · #7 08-24-2010, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

87 beyer first out going 9f is ok in my book.
Wide the entire trip...
Win over the track.
Horrible crop, the race is well matched with bad horses. The winning beyer will be what, maybe a 100?

An 87 Beyer is pretty good for a firster at 9f, but that doesn't mean he can step right into top company. He was wide, but that wasn't a killer field and he never really flashed the type of brilliance that makes you think he's a big time stakes horse. It was very workmanlike. . . He's probably not bad, but he's nowhere near the top horses in the Travers - whether or not it's a weak crop. The winning Beyer will probably be somewhere in the 105 range, and he's not stepping up and running anything like that here. . . especially second time out at 10f - if we're going to give him credit for winning at 9 first out, then what does that mean for winning at 10 second time out? A win over the track means nothing to me. . . this isn't Keeneland or Charles Town. . . and other horses have wins or big efforts over the track too.

RockHardTen1985 · #8 08-24-2010, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

An 87 Beyer is pretty good for a firster at 9f, but that doesn't mean he can step right into top company. He was wide, but that wasn't a killer field and he never really flashed the type of brilliance that makes you think he's a big time stakes horse. It was very workmanlike. . . He's probably not bad, but he's nowhere near the top horses in the Travers - whether or not it's a weak crop. The winning Beyer will probably be somewhere in the 105 range, and he's not stepping up and running anything like that here. . . especially second time out at 10f - if we're going to give him credit for winning at 9 first out, then what does that mean for winning at 10 second time out? A win over the track means nothing to me. . . this isn't Keeneland or Charles Town. . . and other horses have wins or big efforts over the track too.

As of now, who do you like in the Travers? I know its a few days away, and I know the pp's and all that matter. But we both know you follow, so dont come back with some corny response. For me A Little Warn, Miners Reserve, Afleet Again, Ice Box Super Saver and First Dude are all complete tosses.

Dahoss · #9 08-24-2010, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

i still don't understand what this horse supposedly has going for him. . . it's not like his debut was even that impressive.

I don't either. He has no shot to win the race. I think he would have found the Friday stake a bit too tough also. At least right now.

NTamm1215 · #10 08-24-2010, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don't either. He has no shot to win the race. I think he would have found the Friday stake a bit too tough also. At least right now.

He would have gotten drubbed in the N1X on Saturday. There's just no reason for him to be considered a factor.

NT

the_fat_man · #11 08-24-2010, 10:00 PM

He can be a factor. The track can be super speed favoring, the way it was when he broke his maiden, and the speed in the race could have a ton of trouble and he can be left alone on the lead in slow fractions and get carried home by the track (while a couple of closers fall on the turn).

Anything is possible. There's my analysis.

Of all the interesting races/horses that we don't discuss, suddenly there's the need to spend time on this PLUG.

-BT- · #12 08-25-2010, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

He asked a question about an interesting possible starter in one of the biggest races of the year. I don't see what's so wrong about that.
Why not have a discussion about the horse? I don't think he has much of a shot either, but it seems worthy of a discussion. You really want/expect him to tell you who he's going to bet on already? That seems a bit premature. PG85 made his argument about why he liked the horse's debut, and although I don't entirely agree with it, he did make some points.

i have no problem with a discussion, everyone has put out some pretty valid points. But i don't think its productive to just defend a horses chances for the sake of conversation. it almost seems like he's taking the middle on this horse, thinks he has a chances, but wont bet on him.....well i think that about every horse in every race... i just don't make a production about it.

that being said i stand by what serling posted earlier... Bunky has no shot for win in my opinion, though his maiden voyage was impressive he didn't appear to be a world beater, i think the owner/trainer is beating a lot of pots and pans and the media is eating it up.

-bt-

johnny pinwheel · #13 08-25-2010, 08:50 AM

does this horse have a chance? every horse has a chance, thats what people never get....even people that call themselves handicappers. its a freakin horse race, known as gambling on animals. anything can happen. what are this horses chances relative to his race time odds? i can gaurantee you that the odds will be lower than they are worth just from the garbage i'm reading here.......lol. i could not bet this horse on top for less than 40 or 50 to 1 and thats being kind.......lol

RockHardTen1985 · #14 08-25-2010, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

does this horse have a chance? every horse has a chance, thats what people never get....even people that call themselves handicappers. its a freakin horse race, known as gambling on animals. anything can happen. what are this horses chances relative to his race time odds? i can gaurantee you that the odds will be lower than they are worth just from the garbage i'm reading here.......lol. i could not bet this horse on top for less than 40 or 50 to 1 and thats being kind.......lol

Sure everyone has a chance, and thats part of the game. Thats why I responded to the face of NYRA, and like always he came back with an insult. Im actually flattered. Its 2 weeks in a row now he comes out of no where and insults me, Im sure the avatar bothers him.
Back to the race, Im tossing the horses I mentioned above, I work a brutal 8am-9pm Saturday and will be putting all my bets in early, mostly pick 3 and 4's and maybe $300 for the day. If any of the above horses win I lose, Fly Down is one of my mains and Lezcano is so bad right now Im actually thinking about this.... Its a big race and a good discussion. WIll I cover Admiral ALex, maybe in a pick 3, likely not in the pick 4.

blackthroatedwind · #15 08-25-2010, 11:48 PM

I never see people's avatars....I blocked them when I joined.

RockHardTen1985 · #16 08-25-2010, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I never see people's avatars....I blocked them when I joined.

OK, well its a great pic of you.
I think they got your good side.

miraja2 · #17 08-25-2010, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

i have no problem with a discussion, everyone has put out some pretty valid points. But i don't think its productive to just defend a horses chances for the sake of conversation. it almost seems like he's taking the middle on this horse, thinks he has a chances, but wont bet on him.....well i think that about every horse in every race... i just don't make a production about it.

that being said i stand by what serling posted earlier... Bunky has no shot for win in my opinion, though his maiden voyage was impressive he didn't appear to be a world beater, i think the owner/trainer is beating a lot of pots and pans and the media is eating it up.

-bt-

Right.....it isn't Saturday yet. This is the time for open-ended discussion, not betting.
I've criticized PG85 about 500 times for declaring the winner of a race before the PPs even come out. For him to be discussing a colt's chances without either declaring him a superstar or calling him a worthless slug is actually pretty significant progress on his part.

As for me, I would want no part of the colt at anything less than about 40/1, if the field comes up as expected. He certainly could take a step forward in his second start, but he would have to improve dramatically while going 10f in just his second start. That seems unlikely.