Blind Luck

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But that's the lesson that Blind Luck teaches us. Even a superior against-the-grain runner like BL has lost. In particular, she's lost on POLY, where it's a lot harder to go against the grain. And she's 4 for 4 on dirt where it's MUCH EASIER to do so. Hard to believe that those that appreciate what BL does can't make the next step and REALLY APPRECIATE what Z does. Z would CRUSH her on POLY -- and certainly on dirt --- with comparable setups/trips. As much as has been made about Z's last race, BL doesn't win with that setup. Has Z lost a step? Who knows? Just give her clear sailing and (reasonably) enough time and she'll run ANYTHING down.

I would disagree as you know. On dirt, Z's total lack of early speed is going to be a detriment on dirt. Blind Luck, while a similar style, is able to maintain closer contact in my opinion on dirt. That very attribute is what caused her to lose a few times on rubber.

You can pretend the surfaces are the same all you want, it just isn't so.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I would disagree as you know. On dirt, Z's total lack of early speed is going to be a detriment on dirt. Blind Luck, while a similar style, is able to maintain closer contact in my opinion on dirt. That very attribute is what caused her to lose a few times on rubber.

You can pretend the surfaces are the same all you want, it just isn't so.

I don't think that BL maintains any closer contact in her races than Z does. What both can do, that Biofuel, another poly runner with a similar style can't, or, at least, hasn't shown the ability to do so up to this point, is run without needing 'escorts'. Biofuel got terrible trips in her two races against DMC, as she had to do all her own running. She was able to win over the weekend at WO because others ran before she did and she picked up the pieces -- albeit with a very nice late run.

But not being 'escorted' is pretty much never a problem on dirt in races with a reasonably large field, on a fair track, which the Classic will be. Z has 2 races on dirt, both with good setups, and both HUGE wipeouts. BL's best race (in terms of figures and visual impressiveness) was a similarly well setup wipeout. Once again, IMO, BL, while very impressive, hasn't shown the kind of late kick that Z exhibits, nor the ability to overcome 'as difficult' setups. In other words, Z needs to be 'escorted' significantly less than BL. Z just pushes a bigger gear --- bigger than any horse out there. She'd bury BL if they were to come home together.

[King Glorious]

I also really appreciate a guy like Hollendorfer. He's not afraid of those big, bad, scary Rockies and keeps shipping her over them to run. You've got to appreciate the fact that the Cotillion is next on her schedule, even though the risk/reward is completely out of her favor. With Devil May Care also possibly being there, Blind Luck HAS to beat her again in order to maintain her position at the top of the 3yo filly leaderboard. If DMC were to win, even though they'd be tied, I guarantee that she'd become the new leader. It's like in college football. Ohio St. can beat Michigan 31-0 and win the Big 10 title but if they finish 1-2 in the polls and meet in the national title game and Michigan wins 21-20, they are the champion. Call it what have you done for me lately. Plus, and let's be honest, there is an eastern bias when it comes to the Eclipse Awards. So with very little to gain and much to lose, I give a lot of respect to Hollendorfer and hope Blind Luck is rewards him for his decisions. He could easily sit at home or look for an easier spot somewhere else. Then, for good measure, after this he plans on shipping again for the Distaff. I wish he'd bring a glass of Northern California water down to Southern Cal and let John Shirreffs drink from it. It must contain high levels of courage.