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#1
08-20-2010, 08:56 AM
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Odds for the Mudgway (7 days to go!):
Mufhasa 7-2 Wall Street 4-1 Katie Lee 7-1  Keep The Peace 8-1 Vonusti 9-1 Pennachio 10-1 Run Like Al 11-1 Bulginbaah 11-1 The Hombre 12-1 Fritzy Boy 15-1 Firebolt 20-1 Vosne Romanee 20-1 My (Miss) Keepsake 20-1 And the rest are all at better than 20-1 (including G1 winners Jacowils, Veloce Bella and Eileen Dubh). 
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#2
08-23-2010, 03:57 AM
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Quote:
Katie Lee at what? Second thank you for the My (Miss) Keepsake.  3rd... What happened, ed? Why did they close down?  http://www.nzracingnews.co.nz/
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#3
08-23-2010, 08:03 AM
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I never heard an explanation for why they closed. I guess they were losing money.
 It's a shame. It was a good site.I can't really explain Katie Lee's odds. It might be the fact that she's never won the first race of a campaign - she was 2nd in her first race as a 2yo and 3rd in her first start at 3. Because of her Foxbridge Plate scratching, the Mudgway will be her first start as a 4yo. They might think she needs a race before she's back at her amazing best.But she's also never run on a dry track in the first race of a campaign. I think if the track is dry on Saturday, her odds will be about half that.
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#4
08-23-2010, 09:30 PM
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Decision made: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/racing/new...ectid=10668354
It's a shame she'll miss the G1, but I'm happy she's going to run at Ruakaka - I can easily drive up there.
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#5
08-23-2010, 10:28 PM
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Lucky you for being able to jump in your car and see her!
Okay ed I'm getting really mixed up so maybe you can help me out here. I Am Sam was the heavy favorite but came in 2nd over the weekend, right? Some of these horses i do like a lot. Fritzy Boy, for example. The problem is I can remember him being 3rd to C'est La Guerre (was that the Derby?) but not much else. The Hombre is another and I can remember being really happy when he won something at Doomben but cannot remember what or what he's really done since. Firebolt...can't remember the names of the races but I do remember being so impressed with him (even though they weren't G1s or anything). Illuminates. Well that was a lovely win over the weekend (but weird to see Raihana do so poorly ).So the odds are looking like this or rather so the odds are looking like this??? The full Mudgway market: $4.50 Mufhasa, $5 Wall Street, $6 Keep The Peace, $8 Katie Lee, $10 Pennacchio, Vonusti; $12 Fritzy Boy, Miss Maren, Run Like Al, The Hombre; $14 Illuminates, Bulginbaah; $21 Beautiful Girl, $31 Vosne Romanee, Veloce Bella, Hold It Harvey, Firebolt; $41 Eileen Dubh, Jacowils, $51 Lamington Vegas, Salvatore, My Astron, $101 I Am Sam, Spare A Fortune. The odds for Keep the Peace seem too low and (most of) the rest seem too high. Muhfasa and Wall Street seem about right. What's your take on this? Are some of the odds absurd here or is there stuff I'm not taking into consideration? Does it take Muhfasa a while to get going? I remember his two nice wins earlier in the year (and being surprised which is so moronic) and was curious. Who was the horse who almost fell in, God I cannot remember the name but it was a G1 (I think!) mile race at the very beginning of the year? Do you remember that? Last question (sorry! You don't have to answer all or don't have to answer all at once. I know you have a life) where is Coinston (you're groaning, aren't you?  ) Bluebird these days? Have not seen that name in forever. Honestly I don't think I've seen it since he won the Derby... (God remembr that? Remember thinking Down the Road had it and then...)  Oh and Imabayboy! Will he be racing or was he retired? Thanks ed!
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#6
08-23-2010, 11:51 PM
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Haha, a life? What's that?!
I Am Sam was definitely expected to win last weekend, but that was in a much lower grade. He came 14th in his only try at G1 level, so I think that might explain his big odds here. You're right about Fritzy Boy's terrific 3rd in the 2007 Derby. Since then he has won a G1 (this race, actually, in August 2007) and finished second in another G1 last season. He's best on wet ground, which most people are expecting we'll have for this year's Mudgway. That's why his odds are so low. But I'm not so sure it will be wet - it's a Slow 9 there today, and there's quite a lot of sun and warm temperatures forecast for the rest of the week. I think it might be in the Dead range. The Hombre won the G3 Rough Habit Plate in Brisbane and then was placed in the G2 Grand Prix. He was disappointing in the Queensland Derby, but apart from that he had a great season. The Mudgway is on his home track, so I think people are expecting him to run a big race. Firebolt was very impressive going wire-to-wire in a couple of stakes races in Brisbane over similar distances to the Mudgway. Roger James has a huge opinion of him, and he's a very highly respected and astute trainer. I do think Keep The Peace's odds are a bit low. She did win the Oaks, and if it hadn't been for Katie Lee, she would have won the 1000 Guineas as well. But I think the distance of this race is a bit short for her - I wouldn't expect her to beat these guys over a distance shorter than a mile. You're right about Mufhasa taking a while to get going. He seems to usually be at his peak in January-March time. But he was great in this race last year, finishing a close second to Tavistock. A repeat of that effort would see him go close to winning this one. Trying to think of who you might be talking about for the mile race. Maybe La Etoile? She won the big mile on January 1. If she's the one you mean, I think they're being careful with her because she came back from a race in April with an irregular heartbeat. I actually saw this story about Coniston Bluebird just a few days ago: http://www.racingandsports.com.au/ra...asp?NID=184026 I hope he does well. Maybe he can make that Derby result seem less ridiculous! Imabayboy will be racing. I think they might look at some of the nice big G2 cups in the summer for him - Counties Cup, Waikato Cup, Avondale Cup, etc.Hope that helps!
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#7
08-24-2010, 01:14 AM
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Absolutely and thank you! If not for you I wouldn't know any of these horses and I mean there are SO many good ones, exciting to watch, worth the wait... I am so happy you're here.
I didn't realize this was The Hombres home track and you probably told me about bayboy at the end of last season but if so I'd forgotten. I had no idea about Coinston Bluebird and yeah agree... hope he comes back and shows us cause i never mind being wrong. Remember the race you posted that Vonusti had won? http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...sti#post607373 I remember reading this and going back to watch the replay (if he were hurt no way would i have) and being thankful that it was blurred and hard to see, then deciding I didn't need to watch it a second time. Filed on 30 Jan 2010 @ 10:04 New Zealand, 30 January 2010 Group One glory for Montjeu five-year-old Five-year-old gelding Wall Street (Montjeu) landed the Group One Harcourts Thorndon Mile over 1600m at Trentham racecourse in Wellington on Saturday, coming with a strong run from the second half of the field in the final 800m before challenging for the lead a furlong from home, staying on strongly to score by half a length from Tavistock, to provide their sire, Montjeu with the quinella. Wall Street had almost fallen in the straight in the Group One Telegraph Handicap last Saturday, prompting his trainer Jeff Lynds to say: “It was a little bit disappointing after the Telegraph, but in the last couple of days I thought ‘you’re there’.” Rider Buddy Lammas said “I thought we would have won the Telegraph. He was travelling better or at least as well as the winner (Vonusti) when he was checked to last and it was just because he tries so hard that he found like he did for ninth.” http://www.the-racehorse.com/racing/..._thorndon_mile Would love to hear your pick as the race gets closer. As usual I'll probably be rooting for like 9 horses.
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Hybrid Mode
