Presque Isle at a mile

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 08-17-2010, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I dont understand you, but the 9 horse just won race two at presque isle.

I know this takes brain cells to understand ....but ..

The track bias is to inside-speed horses.

The 9 horse had clearly the most early speed in the field - he was a speed horse and all drawn inside of him were closers ... because he was sent hard out of the gate - he was able to get to the inside and enjoy an easy lead before the first turn ...

He ran away with the race at 13/1. Where you start from (post position) only matters so much because it's easier to get to the rail when you're starting on the rail. It's hard to get to the rail when you start from a wide draw.

A 120/1 longshot was gunned to the lead in race #1 - got clear early and had enough left to finish 3rd at triple digit odds.

iamthelurker · #2 08-17-2010, 05:34 PM

I was saying I dont understand you to clyde.

Before I was just asking you how you would approach handicapping the race knowing that its a short run into the first turn. With the stats so against the outside posts, did you still bet the 9?

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 08-17-2010, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

Before I was just asking you how you would approach handicapping the race knowing that its a short run into the first turn. With the stats so against the outside posts, did you still bet the 9?

If the 9 in that race was breaking from posts 1 through 5 he would have been a near cinch. He had the best last race Beyer in the entire field - and the most early speed in the field.

However, because he had post 9, even with all closers to his inside - you basically had to hope he was ridden very aggressively. Which he was.

All meet long, jockeys aren't gunning horses early in routes. So - it would have been a tricky call. You bet at 13/1 and the rider bides his time, gets hung wide, and you're off the board. You don't bet at 13/1 and you watch him gun him - get a loose early lead - and win by a city block.