Best Maiden Race of the meet so far...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Good analysis of the race Doug, but this one confuses me a bit. If you are tossing the #1 because of the pedigree (DH / AP Indy mare), wouldn't the Asmussen colt (DH / AP Indy mare) need to be tossed by the same logic?
Or do you believe that the big price tag alone makes that one a must use?

Brock worked an unblinkered :10 and 3/5 at the Fasig-Tipton February sale and looked very smooth doing it, though I'll defer to Doug regarding the move because he watches way more of them than I do.

As far as Heisman, the dam's first foal broke her maiden by almost five lengths on the inner track and AGS broke his maiden, like Doug said, in a scintillating Polytrack win at Turfway. I wouldn't put it bast Heisman or Brock to be very strong at first asking while ultimately having the most success they can going long.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Brock worked an unblinkered :10 and 3/5 at the Fasig-Tipton February sale and looked very smooth doing it, though I'll defer to Doug regarding the move because he watches way more of them than I do.

As far as Heisman, the dam's first foal broke her maiden by almost five lengths on the inner track and AGS broke his maiden, like Doug said, in a scintillating Polytrack win at Turfway. I wouldn't put it bast Heisman or Brock to be very strong at first asking while ultimately having the most success they can going long.

NT

Yeah. Even though Brock's under-tack preview didn't exactly strike me as the type of horse I'm crazy about playing in a debut sprint - you have to respect a horse who pinhooks for 11.5 times his value six months later and sells for $2.3 million. He was basically like the first pick of the draft among the people putting up the money.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Even though Brock's under-tack preview didn't exactly strike me as the type of horse I'm crazy about playing in a debut sprint - you have to respect a horse who pinhooks for 11.5 times his value six months later and sells for $2.3 million. He was basically like the first pick of the draft among the people putting up the money.

Or he is the guy who drafted Eli Manning first overall in their fantasy draft because he is a Giants fan.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Or he is the guy who drafted Eli Manning first overall in their fantasy draft because he is a Giants fan.

The last 3 Fasig Tipon Calder sales toppers all raced as 2yo's.

2009: Sales topper Al Zir won his debut handily by 4 lengths at Newmarket against a 14 horse field. He went off at 9/5 odds. He also won his 2nd start and than was 3rd in a Group 1 stakes 3rd time out.

2008: Desert Party won his debut by 4 lengths going 4.5 furlongs at Arlington Park. He won the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga over Vinyard Haven second time out

2007: The Leopard was 2nd in his debut at Belmont to a Rick Violette debut winner. He won his second start going 6fs on the dirt at Saratoga with a 94 Beyer. Ended up 3-for-6 as a 2yo with two stakes win - one was a Graded Stakes win.

Generally - these horses that top that sale and make the races at age 2 aren't slow pieces of crap that often. Lion Heart topped this sale about 10 years - he was amazing as a 2yo.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The last 3 Fasig Tipon Calder sales toppers all raced as 2yo's.

2009: Sales topper Al Zir won his debut handily by 4 lengths at Newmarket against a 14 horse field. He went off at 9/5 odds. He also won his 2nd start and than was 3rd in a Group 1 stakes 3rd time out.

2008: Desert Party won his debut by 4 lengths going 4.5 furlongs at Arlington Park. He won the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga over Vinyard Haven second time out

2007: The Leopard was 2nd in his debut at Belmont to a Rick Violette debut winner. He won his second start going 6fs on the dirt at Saratoga with a 94 Beyer. Ended up 3-for-6 as a 2yo with two stakes win - one was a Graded Stakes win.

Generally - these horses that top that sale and make the races at age 2 aren't slow pieces of crap that often. Lion Heart topped this sale about 10 years - he was amazing as a 2yo.

His debut BC weekend at Santa Anita was arguably the best dirt performance of the entire weekend (outside of perhaps Cajun Beat.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Rick Violette at Saratoga with 2-year-olds has been an amazing angle going back at least as far as 1998. He goes out and gets the right type of horses for those races and he gets them ready.

Most of the time - those horses won't develop much. But there are exceptions like Dream Rush, High Finance, Read the Footnotes, Summer Doldrums etc.

He's a pretty solid turf trainer when given the kind of horse who isn't a win-early fast 2yo sale type. He developed Man From Wicklow well.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rick Violette at Saratoga with 2-year-olds has been an amazing angle going back at least as far as 1998. He goes out and gets the right type of horses for those races and he gets them ready.

Most of the time - those horses won't develop much. But there are exceptions like Dream Rush, High Finance, Read the Footnotes, Summer Doldrums etc.

He's a pretty solid turf trainer when given the kind of horse who isn't a win-early fast 2yo sale type. He developed Man From Wicklow well.

5 YEARS overall was horrible, I had to make it 3.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

5 YEARS overall was horrible, I had to make it 3.

Rick Violette with 2yo's on dirt at Saratoga since '98:

24-for-88 (27.3%) $3.86 ROI

In 2yo dirt races at Saratoga that are 5.5fs or shorter:

15-for-41 (36.6% wins) $4.45 ROI


Again ... a lot of the damage was done in the late 90's - Indian Charlie can tell you how I was a rabid Violette fan ten years ago. It took a while for me to figure out why he was so great with these obscurely bred types sprinting at Saratoga.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rick Violette with 2yo's on dirt at Saratoga since '98:

24-for-88 (27.3%) $3.86 ROI

In 2yo dirt races at Saratoga that are 5.5fs or shorter:

15-for-41 (36.6% wins) $4.45 ROI


Again ... a lot of the damage was done in the late 90's - Indian Charlie can tell you how I was a rabid Violette fan ten years ago. It took a while for me to figure out why he was so great with these obscurely bred types sprinting at Saratoga.

How do you go back that far? When I plugged in just 5 it was not that good, I dont really remember late 90's, since I was no older then 14.
Why is he so great?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why is he so great?

He's great with them because he gets the right kind and he doesn't try and train the speed out of them.

Say you've got one owner who wants to buy 8 horses for 200K a piece.

You can go the Zito way and try to buy the 8 as yearlings looking for fairly nicely bred well put together classic types. Or you can buy 8 horses from Ocala and Timonium that don't have the best breeding or conformation - but are very quick.

If you go the former - you're not going to look like much of a debut trainer. If you go with the latter - you're probably going to look like a good debut trainer.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rick Violette with 2yo's on dirt at Saratoga since '98:

24-for-88 (27.3%) $3.86 ROI

In 2yo dirt races at Saratoga that are 5.5fs or shorter:

15-for-41 (36.6% wins) $4.45 ROI


Again ... a lot of the damage was done in the late 90's - Indian Charlie can tell you how I was a rabid Violette fan ten years ago. It took a while for me to figure out why he was so great with these obscurely bred types sprinting at Saratoga.

How about breaking this out yearly since 2005 at Saratoga?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

How about breaking this out yearly since 2005 at Saratoga?

2010: 1-for-5
2009: 3-for-10
2008: 2-for-5
2007: 2-for-12
2006: 4-for-14
2005: 2-for-12

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rick Violette at Saratoga with 2-year-olds has been an amazing angle going back at least as far as 1998. He goes out and gets the right type of horses for those races and he gets them ready.

Most of the time - those horses won't develop much. But there are exceptions like Dream Rush, High Finance, Read the Footnotes, Summer Doldrums etc.

Of these, wasn't Read the Footnotes the only one to race, let alone break his maiden, at Saratoga as a 2YO?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Of these, wasn't Read the Footnotes the only one to race, let alone break his maiden, at Saratoga as a 2YO?

I think so. They were all his type of 2yo though - the fast pinhook.

Dream Rush was a 90k yl turned 285K 2yo who worked very fast.

Readthefootnotes set the track on fire going 3/8ths at Timonium and was a 320K buy - a ton for a NY bred coming out of the Timonium 2yo sale.

High Finance was an M & H that I think worked fast.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think so. They were all his type of 2yo though - the fast pinhook.

Dream Rush was a 90k yl turned 285K 2yo who worked very fast.

Readthefootnotes set the track on fire going 3/8ths at Timonium and was a 320K buy - a ton for a NY bred coming out of the Timonium 2yo sale.

High Finance was an M & H that I think worked fast.

While they were all pricey 2YO plays, my thinking was that we're starting to see a trend where most of Violette's early-season 2YO winners become one-hit wonders (perhaps with the exception of Worstcasescenario). I know that we're looking at a small sample size, but it may not be a coincidence that, of the four horses that you mentioned that "went on with it," only Read the Footnotes broke his maiden at Saratoga. High Finance, for example, didn't even debut until he was a 3YO.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

While they were all pricey 2YO plays, my thinking was that we're starting to see a trend where most of Violette's early-season 2YO winners become one-hit wonders (perhaps with the exception of Worstcasescenario). I know that we're looking at a small sample size, but it may not be a coincidence that, of the four horses that you mentioned that "went on with it," only Read the Footnotes broke his maiden at Saratoga. High Finance, for example, didn't even debut until he was a 3YO.

Shouldn't they become one hit wonders though?

There's only been one trainer since '98 that has won with more 2yo debuters at Saratoga than Violette - and his name is Todd Pletcher and he's had over a hundred more to debut than Violette.

[Betsy]

Brock is taking money at 3-1, but none of the other firsters are; Stay Thirsty is even money with 7 minutes to post

[jms62]

2.3 million piece of deuce.. As I said what kind of moron would buy a horse for 2.3 million

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by jms62

2.3 million piece of deuce.. As I said what kind of moron would buy a horse for 2.3 million

I have X and I buy a horse for Y...Dude has xxxx he will buy a horse for YYYY..It's all about the action

[Sightseek]

Valiant Passion was bought by Team Valor and given to Pletcher for training.