Lava Man

[tycharles01]

Any chance he gets taken out in the Goodwood??

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Any chance he gets taken out in the Goodwood??

No, but I will go on a limb and say he loses the race.. Super Frolic

[Danzig]

on any given day and all that.....

lava man wins again. the streak, and the bashing by some, will continue.

[The Bid]

Love Super Frolic, he just needs a track thats not so speed biased. Hes made his run at Lava man each time they have ran together, just to be snuffed out by an unfair racing surface. His races this year are sneaky good

[pba1817]

Changing my mind, Lava Man wins, Super Frolic rounds out the exacta.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,Lava hasn't had much success taking on 126 lbs. No doubt that Lava Man has beaten most of these,but there are a couple things different on Saturday.This is a handicap,and I think people are simply overlooking the fact that these horses are almost all getting huge weight breaks(at the same time that Lava has to carry 2 extra pounds.)In the Pacific Classic,Lava carried the sameweight as most of the rest(124.)Today,they carry 115,117,and 118(while he carries the same 126 that he has failed to win with before.)When Lava beat Magnum in the S. Anita Handicap,Lava carried 120.Now he carries 6 more pounds(126.)Lava gave up 7 pounds to Magnum that day.In this race he will give him 9 pounds.He will give up 11 pounds to Brother Derek.Brother Derek has never lost at this track.He carried 122 during his success at this track.Now,he is asked to only have to carry 115 pounds.Lava is a very good horse,but he will be tested tomorrow by 2 horses that like this track very much.This should be a very good race.I don't know who will win,but it is not the mismatch that people think it is.

[SniperSB23]

I think Magnum and Super Frolic could beat Lava Man. Super Frolic runs his best at a mile and a quarter so may be a little short here but Magnum should get it done. Lava Man should hold on for 2nd or 3rd. Key Magnum on top with LM and SF in the 2nd and 3rd spots.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Well,Lava hasn't had much success taking on 126 lbs. No doubt that Lava Man has beaten most of these,but there are a couple things different on Saturday.This is a handicap,and I think people are simply overlooking the fact that these horses are almost all getting huge weight breaks(at the same time that Lava has to carry 2 extra pounds.)In the Pacific Classic,Lava carried the sameweight as most of the rest(124.)Today,they carry 115,117,and 118(while he carries the same 126 that he has failed to win with before.)When Lava beat Magnum in the S. Anita Handicap,Lava carried 120.Now he carries 6 more pounds(126.)Lava gave up 7 pounds to Magnum that day.In this race he will give him 9 pounds.He will give up 11 pounds to Brother Derek.Brother Derek has never lost at this track.He carried 122 during his success at this track.Now,he is asked to only have to carry 115 pounds.Lava is a very good horse,but he will be tested tomorrow by 2 horses that like this track very much.This should be a very good race.I don't know who will win,but it is not the mismatch that people think it is.

Good post, Scuds. Agree completely.

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

LAVA MAN is super vulnerable here. Last time SUPER FROLIC was given this much weight to LAVA MAN, he finished within 3/4's of a length. Pace could be sharp. GIACOMO could be a wise-guy... I'm putting LAVA on my wider tickets, focusing on GIACOMO and SUPER FROLIC on the narrow ones.

[The Bid]

Guys, Magnum simply isnt that good of a horse

[Slewbopper]

This is a real handicap race for a change with the second lightweight having a good shot. Given the weight breaks and Bro Derek's love of Santa Anita, I give him a big shot at beating the Lava Man. I am throwing out his last race at Delmar.

BD is in with 115, the lightest impost of his career, 7 pounds less than he has carried in any of his 3 yo races, and is getting 11 pounds from LM. He is 4 for 4 at SA while running 4th in his last 4 races away from SA dating back to last year's BCJ. This is truly a horse for course. LM has never won carrying 126. The rest of the field looks like the usual suspects.

BD to win. Exb LM/BD. If the LM/BD comes in, it will probably negate the other wagers.

I will be rooting for the Lava Man.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Guys, Magnum simply isnt that good of a horse

Well,he is a good enough horse to come a close 2nd to Lava in the biggest race of the Winter/Spring Meet.He was stuck behind horses(including Lava.)When Nakatani went to the gas(had been coasting close to a slow pace,)Court couldn't go with him until he could get Magnum out from behind horses.Should have even been a closer finish.The question is whether Magnum is the same horse as he was last Spring.Pedroza will take the horse further back than Court,and hope for a better pace than in the S A HDCP.My guess is that B Derek smokes from the 7 hole,and gets clear from Preachin',and Romeo.I doubt Arroyo wants a lead,and you would think Court would now figure out that if he wants to get Preachin' to win,than he better rate just off the pace(like he has done in his last 3 wins.)If they try to go with Derek,then they can't win.Solis might as well let Derek try to get separation,because Lava has proven time and again that he likes to lay close to a slow pace,and explode away from horses.With 115 pounds,just try to pull off what he did in the San Rafael.Go about 1:10,and try to open up on the turn.If they can catch you,then so be it,but I don't think Derek has the acceleration to try to sprint for home from a slow pace (side by side with Lava.)If they had same weight,or even weight for age,I wouldn't think any of them have very much chance to upset Lava,but with an 11 pound,nd 9 pound advantage,I think it makes them closer to an upset.No doubt that B Derek has struggled away from SoCal,but he hasn't struggled on this track.Let me ask you this.B Derek,and Lava both ran here on March 4th.Lava was coasting on a 1:11:1 in his race.On the same track,Brother Derek ran a 1:10:1 on the way to his 1:41:4 .So,that day Derek was 5 lengths ahead of what Lava was doing at 6f.Would Lava been able to catch him that day? Probably,but I don't think what Lava did in the S A Hdcp that day was that much better than what Derek did earlier in the Santa Catalina.It was better,but I think people underestimate what Derek can do at this particular track.They did nothing but rave about the way he worked all Winter at this track.Will Magnum run well? I don't know if he is still sharp.I am just gunna hope Lava and Derek put on a show in the stretch today.I think we would all like to see both horses run their best(well not everybody..a lot of people hate both or 1 of them...especially B.D.)

[tycharles01]

Still in Pik 4 for $5 and got 2,3,7 in the Goodwood


Lava Man help me out

[Scav]

They are paying nice also, they just posted them on ESPN.....don't remember what your numbers were paying

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Excellent effort by the top 3.Surprised they didn't go hard on the front with Lava,but I guess they want to ride their horses again in other stakes.I mean Corey was obviously willing to go a sub 1:10 with them on the front today,but they didn't want to do it.We would of had horror on here,because I can tell you right now that Giacomo was interested today,and was ready n' willing to eat it if they cooked it.It is indeed all about the pace with that boy.He looked totally different today with that decent pace.Good thing they didn't go sub 1:10(cuz he was ready for it.)Brother Derek is of course not the bad horse many were saying he was.Another poor break from the gate,but after that he gave it all he had.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by merasmag

i did not know brod had that in him...my new name for a horse is lavatinlawyerman

Is his first name Bernie?

I was pretty much just a fun today at Belmont. No real bets to make with what everyone knew would be chalk. Ended up $7 from my gambling. $30 on beer. F***ing thieves. Had $24 on the P6. Got back $11 for 5 of 6. Lost on a grand slam bet with Silver Train as my show bet in the third leg. No P4s played. Doubled my money on the Goodwood