The Travers - Page 3

The Indomitable DrugS · #41 08-02-2010, 10:13 AM

Even though Kissin Kris ran a fast figure in victory in the Haskell and was 3rd in the BC Classic later in the year ... I would certainly take Lookin At Lucky over him.

Even though Bluegrass Cat won the Haskell by 7 lengths and ran a slightly faster fig than LAL - I'd take LAL.

The rest of your list I agree with back to Technology and Lost Mountain - I'd need to review them.

parsixfarms · #42 08-02-2010, 10:17 AM

In light of how easily he won yesterday (and with Drosselmeyer out and Super Saver's Derby looking more like a mud/Churchill-influenced fluke), Lookin at Lucky has a huge leg up on championship honors now. I'd be really surprised if he ended up running in the Travers.

The Indomitable DrugS · #43 08-02-2010, 10:22 AM

He could lose the Travers and he'd still have a leg up.

It's a very important 3yo race - and it's getting to the time of year when those 3yo opportunities start to vanish.

MaTH716 · #44 08-02-2010, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

In light of how easily he won yesterday (and with Drosselmeyer out and Super Saver's Derby looking more like a mud/Churchill-influenced fluke), Lookin at Lucky has a huge leg up on championship honors now. I'd be really surprised if he ended up running in the Travers.

I totally disagree. He seems to be much the best as far as the 3 year olds go. So why not run in and dominate races like the Haskell and Travers? I don't think people are benching horses because they might already have Eclipse Awards locked up. Some owners actually like running their horses in different races/spots (especially if they are much the best) as opposed to trying to run out the clock for the end of the year awards.

parsixfarms · #45 08-02-2010, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I totally disagree. He seems to be much the best as far as the 3 year olds go. So why not run in and dominate races like the Haskell and Travers? I don't think people are benching horses because they might already have Eclipse Awards locked up. Some owners actually like running their horses in different races/spots (especially if they are much the best) as opposed to trying to run out the clock for the end of the year awards.

I'm not suggesting that I think he should bypass the Travers; I was just stating that I think he will bypass the Travers. He's a California-based horse, and given the weakness of the divisions out west, he could still run in races like the Pacific Classic and Goodwood before the Breeders' Cup without "running out the clock."

MaTH716 · #46 08-02-2010, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'm not suggesting that I think he should bypass the Travers; I was just stating that I think he will bypass the Travers. He's a California-based horse, and given the weakness of the divisions out west, he could still run in races like the Pacific Classic and Goodwood before the Breeders' Cup without "running out the clock."

Baffert mentioned several times how he thought the LAL was a better "dirt" horse. Also how Baffert prefers a track with a real dirt surface. So I actually think he will be staying East. Whether or not he runs in the Travers is still up in the air. I personally think he will.

The Indomitable DrugS · #47 08-02-2010, 10:51 AM

What in the hell was Bravo doing on Afleet Again? Obviously he would say he was riding to win with no regard to where he might finish .. but if he doesn't make an insanely pre-mature move that forces him 6 wide the entire way around the far turn .. he's 2nd in the Haskell and picks up 200K.

The great figure maker 'PG wanted to give a very poorly ridden Afleet Again a 105 Beyer and the so-so 4yo Omniescent a 115.

Amazing that he was in front of a promising sprinter like Trappe Shot on the turn.

RockHardTen1985 · #48 08-02-2010, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What in the hell was Bravo doing on Afleet Again? Obviously he would say he was riding to win with no regard to where he might finish .. but if he doesn't make an insanely pre-mature move that forces him 6 wide the entire way around the far turn .. he's 2nd in the Haskell and picks up 200K.

The great figure maker 'PG wanted to give a very poorly ridden Afleet Again a 105 Beyer and the so-so 4yo Omniescent a 115.

Amazing that he was in front of a promising sprinter like Trappe Shot on the turn.

First off, I said 110-115. Leaning towards 110. Second I asked you to join the team and help.

MaTH716 · #49 08-02-2010, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

First off, I said 110-115. Leaning towards 110. Second I asked you to join the team and help.

What's this team that you are always talkin about and who's already on it?

Sightseek · #50 08-02-2010, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

What's this team that you are always talkin about and who's already on it?

It's the Opus Dei of handicappers.

RockHardTen1985 · #51 08-02-2010, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

It's the Opus Dei of handicappers.

Indian Charlie · #52 08-02-2010, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

It's the Wopus Dei of handicappers.

FTFY

Sightseek · #53 08-02-2010, 12:11 PM

So now we know the LOCKS to win a race almost a month from now and three months from now, how about talking about the big race that is actually taking place this week?

RockHardTen1985 · #54 08-02-2010, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

So now we know the LOCKS to win a race almost a month from now and three months from now, how about talking about the big race that is actually taking place this week?

Nicole, I will talk any race with you... What race do you want to talk about?

Sightseek · #55 08-02-2010, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Nicole, I will talk any race with you... What race do you want to talk about?

The Whitney!

RockHardTen1985 · #56 08-02-2010, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

The Whitney!

Nothing to talk about, you know that. QR cant lose. I dont know how you bet, but if KMac runs that Redding horse I would think tossing Blame for second is the way to make money. Blame is ok, but slow. Hes just slow, and maybe someone can outrun him and make a $20 plus exacta, rather then the $8 QR-Blame will pay.

Sightseek · #57 08-02-2010, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Nothing to talk about, you know that. QR cant lose. I dont know how you bet, but if KMac runs that Redding horse I would think tossing Blame for second is the way to make money. Blame is ok, but slow. Hes just slow, and maybe someone can outrun him and make a $20 plus exacta, rather then the $8 QR-Blame will pay.

I can really see Kiaran saying something like "it's too much to ask of his horse at this time" and point for the Woodward. Dutrow has already ducked. It's too bad Lukas got Mine That Bird and not a good horse since he doesn't duck.

RockHardTen1985 · #58 08-02-2010, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Baffert mentioned several times how he thought the LAL was a better "dirt" horse. Also how Baffert prefers a track with a real dirt surface. So I actually think he will be staying East. Whether or not he runs in the Travers is still up in the air. I personally think he will.

If Bob skips the Travers, I will be really upset with him and I will have to voice my opinion on FB to him.

parsixfarms · #59 08-02-2010, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I can really see Kiaran saying something like "it's too much to ask of his horse at this time" and point for the Woodward. Dutrow has already ducked. It's too bad Lukas got Mine That Bird and not a good horse since he doesn't duck.

I'm not sure where that gets him, as the Woodward is likely to come up a tougher race than the Whitney if Dutrow runs Rail Trip there. This weekend, Pletcher intimated that Quality Road would go Whitney-Woodward, and then skip the JCGC to have a sixty-day break heading into the Breeders' Cup.

Port Conway Lane · #60 08-02-2010, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

No, my critical ranking was not based solely on the Beyer numbers assigned. Let's look at this critically- of the 3yo restricted races, the Haskell would rank 4th behind the Derby, Preakness, and Travers for races "I want to win" (given that the Belmont has become somewhat irrelevant in a non-TC year). It's a serious and important race in the landscape of 3yo racing and a race I happen to love. They draw really good/great fields and important horses, benchmark types. I looked at each of the horses and said "do I want them or LaL in a matchup?"

Rachel Alexandra- RA
Big Brown- BB
Any Given Saturday- AGS
Bluegrass Cat- BC
Roman Ruler- tossup LAL
Lion Heart- LH
Peace Rules- PR
War Emblem- WE Tossup
Point Given- PG
Dixie Union- DU LAL
Menifee- Menifee LAL
Coronado's Quest- CQ
Touch Gold- TG
Skip Away- SA
Serena's Song- SS
Holy Bull- HB
Kissin Kris- KK LAL
Technology- tossup LAL
Lost Mountain- tossup LAL
Restless Con- LaL
King Glorious- KG
Forty Niner- FN
Bet Twice- BT

So I came up with 3 tossups, 1 yes, and 19 no's. I'd like to know where you disagree with my assessment (if any.) It's an interesting comparison if nothing else.

Up to and including the Haskell the ones in bold would differ from your list.