8/1 (MTH): Haskell (G1), Oceanport & Matchmaker (G3's)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pretty sure Phil was being sarcastic. It's 28%, which is about average for a jockey riding for a powerhouse barn like Baffert's.

Yes - Rupert obviously got the 42% stuck in his head when I told him that about 42% of Martin Garcia's total wins this year have come for Baffert and 58% for other trainers not named Baffert.

Having first dibs in the Baffert barn is huge.

In 2009, when Baffert and Gomez teamed up - their record was 95-41-19-9 - for a 43.2% win percentage and a $2.38 ROI.

Gomez is a different type of rider than Garcia ... he'll save ground and every once in a while one will get trapped or stopped. Garcia will put them in a position so that if the horse is 2 lengths the best - he'll win by a half length - but he very rarely gets stopped.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes - Rupert obviously got the 42% stuck in his head when I told him that about 42% of Martin Garcia's total wins this year have come for Baffert and 58% for other trainers not named Baffert.

Having first dibs in the Baffert barn is huge.

In 2009, when Baffert and Gomez teamed up - their record was 95-41-19-9 - for a 43.2% win percentage and a $2.38 ROI.

Gomez is a different type of rider than Garcia ... he'll save ground and every once in a while one will get trapped or stopped. Garcia will put them in a position so that if the horse is 2 lengths the best - he'll win by a half length - but he very rarely gets stopped.

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

It is what happened with Michael Baze here, Catalano called for a reliever and called Sellers in. Baze is still getting mounts that Cat felt he rode well or horses he has been working but the others have gone to Sellers or Geroux

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

I'm not saying that Garcia will necessarily be riding #1 for Baffert forever. But if he continues to ride well for him, I would expect him to at least be riding a lot for him for the next few years. If Garcia starts giving him a lot of bad rides, he will be done in 6 months.

Garcia is still learning but I think he's geting better all the time. I think he's stepped up to another level this year. When you ride for a guy as sharp as Baffert, you're going to learn a lot because these top trainers actually teach these guys things.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not saying that Garcia will necessarily be riding #1 for Baffert forever. But if he continues to ride well for him, I would expect him to at least be riding a lot for him for the next few years. If Garcia starts giving him a lot of bad rides, he will be done in 6 months.

Garcia is still learning but I think he's geting better all the time. I think he's stepped up to another level this year. When you ride for a guy as sharp as Baffert, you're going to learn a lot because these top trainers actually teach these guys things.

I've been following Martin Garcia since I first realized he was the guy who once made a sandwich for me at the deli up the street, and then was on a horse I was looking at in the form.

I've been following thoroughbreds for 51 years. Started when my parents took me to the track at the age of 3. First thing I ever read aloud was the DRF, and THAT's a true story.

Martin Garcia has only been on thoroughbreds for about 60 months.

I've met him, and know as a fact he is a smart and intuitive guy. I do speak a good bit of albeit midwestern US learned Spanish.

I made pretty good money handicapping and wagering on Martin Garcia mounts when I realized he was a firestorm happening in the year he won a riding title over Russell Baze out here.

Martin Garcia is of course still on a learning curve at the top levels.

My only suggestion is to never get off betting a horse just because you doubt Martin Garcia.

If it's the horse's day to compete, Martin will find a way.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

I bet you will see Garcia's numbers go way up on the grass. There is no reason for him not to do well on the grass. He's a good rider and he's a smart rider. He's a much better rider now than he used to be. I think some trainers are hesitant to put a young rider on their good grass horses before the young rider is really proven. Now that Garcia is starting to prove himself to people, I think I think you will see him getting better mounts on the grass and I think his numbers on the grass will go way up. Time will tell.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well.

Baffert called Garcia something like "the best jockey out there at working horses in the morning" or something like that .. and I would assume having an agent named Pegram wouldn't hurt your cause with getting the benefit of the doubt from that specific barn.

The problem with a lot of Garcia's bad rides is that they don't pass for bad rides because they're not bad rides visually so much as they're bad rides analytically.

Gomez's ride on Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby was only a bad one because Espinoza went above and beyond the call of duty of race riding. You think if Gomez had LAL widest on both turns he would have ran down Sidney's Candy that day?

There are going to be a lot of times where Garcia is going to come up a half length short with a clear trip - where someone like a Gomez would have won by a length on the same horse with one of his ground saving well timed good rides.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

Rupert,

Agree about Baffert not hesitating giving a jockey the boot, throughout his training career he has had a love hate relationship with his riders, he's one of the most outspoken trainer's in the game that will not hesitate switching things up at a drop of a hat. He has used Expinoza on and off, Flores, Smith, Solis, Gomez, he even replaced HOF jock Mccarron once, used Antley for a short time so it is inevitable that Martin Garcia's time will come; however as long as they have success together and Garcia continues to develop as a rider, and more importantly do the things that Baffert likes on the track he will continue to get the choice mounts from his stable. I liken it to what happened to Alan Garcia when he broke through when he became Kieran Mclaughlin's go to rider, he got his break with him, his profile grew and he has parlayed that into better mounts with other stables. Regardless here is what Baffert said of Garcia's ride yesterday and in particular losing ground.

"He broke fine and Martin eased him to the outside," Baffert said of the winner. "I knew we’d lose a little bit of ground, but that was the winning move.

“At the three-eighths pole, that’s when you know you’ve got a good horse because they’ll be pulling you. Martin was still sitting, but when he pushed the button, the horse really took off. You can’t make that move on synthetic, but on dirt it was the winning move. That’s really what I like to see -- running fast horses on fast tracks.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Fernando Jara could have been on been LAL yesterday and nothing would change.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Fernando Jara could have been on been LAL yesterday and nothing would change.

That might be a stretch, remember his ride in the Donn when he was stopped cold but Invasor bailed him out BIG TIME.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Jara was a glorified sack of oats .. and not a very good judge of a lot of things - and yeah, Garcia is a little better than him I will admit ... but it doesn't take much to win on Caddy's.

[10 pnt move up]

If your hay is built on being the main rider in Baffert barn my advice would be not to get too comfortable and be very careful about flipping other trainers, what goes around comes around.