Saratoga Pick 4's

#1 07-27-2010, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

$120 a day is affordable. There will be sequences like yesterday that I can hit on a 1-1-3-1 ticket, and it paid over $300.

$120 a day for two pick 4's is a losing strategy

RockHardTen1985 · #2 07-27-2010, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

$120 a day for two pick 4's is a losing strategy

Are you saying if I flip this into a positive ROI I am the GREATEST?

Dahoss · #3 07-27-2010, 03:18 PM

There is some angle here. I just wonder what it is.

#4 07-27-2010, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Are you saying if I flip this into a positive ROI I am the GREATEST?

No. It only takes one or two hits to flip it and that is 90%> luck. The odds of that happening are slim, however.

RockHardTen1985 · #5 07-27-2010, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

No. It only takes one or two hits to flip it and that is 90%> luck. The odds of that happening are slim, however.

Coach of course luck is involved, but I put a lot of time into it and I expect a positive ROI following this structure of $120 and $160 on Saturdays/ just pick 4's.

Lovely Laurel · #6 07-27-2010, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Coach of course luck is involved, but I put a lot of time into it and I expect a positive ROI following this structure of $120 and $160 on Saturdays/ just pick 4's.

RHT:
I know we have bickered in the past BUT I must compliment you on the awesome avatar. You captured his better side.

RockHardTen1985 · #7 07-27-2010, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lovely Laurel

RHT:
I know we have bickered in the past BUT I must compliment you on the awesome avatar. You captured his better side.

Thank You.

clyde · #8 07-27-2010, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lovely Laurel

RHT:
I know we have bickered in the past BUT I must compliment you on the awesome avatar. You captured his better side.

^^^^ Is not Laurel and most certainly is not lovely.

RockHardTen1985 · #9 07-27-2010, 05:44 PM

Wednesday Early Pick 4, Ticket #1

4/2,3,4,5,8/1,4/1,5,6,7,8 $1, $50

THis sequence SUCKS, taking stands in the 2nd and 4th. The 2nd is much more of stand, I feel really good about my 2 in the 4th. I dont want Dutrow in the 3rd, really dont want Jacobson either, will cover him though because even though it was vs lesser competition his last was really good. IMO this is the same as a flat $50 win bet on Mcpeek in the second. If she gets home, this is very likely to be a winning ticket. Julian needs to put her in the race early like last time, the layoff does not scare me because the Trombetta horse SUCKS, and the other contenders are off similar layoffs. I think Dollase's horse who has the edge of recent races will be left with 2 much to do. The firsters, the trainers dont win in these spots, if one of them pops, Im beat. The 4th, Al Stall is 7/19 dropping allowance/claimer on turf... Gomez up tells me that horse is primed, will use the 1 thinking he can bounce back. GoOD Luck, this leaves us with $100 for the late pick 4.

Late pick 4, Ticket #2

6,8,10,12/1,6/1,6,9,12/6,7,10 $1, $96

The 7th looks like a total meltdown. THe 6 looks like the fastest horse but needs to show it in NY, the 1 should get the trip for a really dangerous trainer/jockey combo. THe 6th, Chad Brown is hot and Im thinking the Bond barn will eventually heat up. Those 2 are the mains, I will respect Jerkens and the Kentucky shipper really dont think anyone else can win the 6th. The Stakes race might be more wide open then I originally thought, I think the 1 will run huge but there are a few good ones in there. I love the switch to Julian on the Mott.

Dahoss · #10 07-27-2010, 06:22 PM

I don't like Grosse Pointe Anne at all. Especially at that price. I'd rather take a shot with a horse like Amazing Lauren. In her only start on a fast track she ran okay. Was putting in an early run when she checked a little. Then last time was off a step slow. Then ran 3 wide chasing the pace which is always a prime spot on the inner

. Barbara is good on the drop. If she breaks, I think she's on the lead for as far as she can go.

knickslions2 · #11 07-28-2010, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Wednesday Early Pick 4, Ticket #1

4/2,3,4,5,8/1,4/1,5,6,7,8 $1, $50

THis sequence SUCKS, taking stands in the 2nd and 4th. The 2nd is much more of stand, I feel really good about my 2 in the 4th. I dont want Dutrow in the 3rd, really dont want Jacobson either, will cover him though because even though it was vs lesser competition his last was really good. IMO this is the same as a flat $50 win bet on Mcpeek in the second. If she gets home, this is very likely to be a winning ticket. Julian needs to put her in the race early like last time, the layoff does not scare me because the Trombetta horse SUCKS, and the other contenders are off similar layoffs. I think Dollase's horse who has the edge of recent races will be left with 2 much to do. The firsters, the trainers dont win in these spots, if one of them pops, Im beat. The 4th, Al Stall is 7/19 dropping allowance/claimer on turf... Gomez up tells me that horse is primed, will use the 1 thinking he can bounce back. GoOD Luck, this leaves us with $100 for the late pick 4.

Late pick 4, Ticket #2

6,8,10,12/1,6/1,6,9,12/6,7,10 $1, $96

The 7th looks like a total meltdown. THe 6 looks like the fastest horse but needs to show it in NY, the 1 should get the trip for a really dangerous trainer/jockey combo. THe 6th, Chad Brown is hot and Im thinking the Bond barn will eventually heat up. Those 2 are the mains, I will respect Jerkens and the Kentucky shipper really dont think anyone else can win the 6th. The Stakes race might be more wide open then I originally thought, I think the 1 will run huge but there are a few good ones in there. I love the switch to Julian on the Mott.

Bring it home

#12 07-27-2010, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Coach of course luck is involved, but I put a lot of time into it and I expect a positive ROI following this structure of $120 and $160 on Saturdays/ just pick 4's.

Well then allow a daily allowance of $120 for one or both...that way if there is a sequence one likes they can cover it properly.

RockHardTen1985 · #13 07-27-2010, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Well then allow a daily allowance of $120 for one or both...that way if there is a sequence one likes they can cover it properly.

What do you think is a reasonable amount? $75 per play? I dont want to go any higher then that.... $75 per sequence, and $100 for the Saturday late?

knickslions2 · #14 07-27-2010, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

What do you think is a reasonable amount? $75 per play? I dont want to go any higher then that.... $75 per sequence, and $100 for the Saturday late?

$64 and $128 per pick 4

(I like the even numbers.)

#15 07-27-2010, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

What do you think is a reasonable amount? $75 per play? I dont want to go any higher then that.... $75 per sequence, and $100 for the Saturday late?

Might as well set the cap to $50 for all days and see how the participants stack up against TVG analysts.

fantini33 · #16 07-27-2010, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Well then allow a daily allowance of $120 for one or both...that way if there is a sequence one likes they can cover it properly.

I agree.

Pass and a $120
$40 and an $80
$24 and a $96
$48 and a $72

$120 a day is $120 a day, no?

Playing like it were real cake I doubt I'd be playing $60 and $60 very often.....and expecting some return at a meet like Saratoga.

RockHardTen1985 · #17 07-27-2010, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fantini33

I agree.

Pass and a $120
$40 and an $80
$24 and a $96
$48 and a $72

$120 a day is $120 a day, no?

Playing like it were real cake I doubt I'd be playing $60 and $60 very often.....and expecting some return at a meet like Saratoga.

What is reasonable then for both tickets, or 1 and none or 1 small 1 big like your saying? Whats a reasonable number for the big handicapper and the little guy w/ not much money?

gales0678 · #18 07-27-2010, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Coach of course luck is involved, but I put a lot of time into it and I expect a positive ROI following this structure of $120 and $160 on Saturdays/ just pick 4's.

hey joe who is in your avaitar?

RockHardTen1985 · #19 07-27-2010, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

hey joe who is in your avaitar?

Hey Gales, how are you? My AVATAR IS THE FACE OF NYRA.
Any tips for me? PM me.

Dahoss · #20 07-28-2010, 01:02 PM

7/28

Early
$3 6/5/4,10/2,5,6 $18
$1 6/2,6/4,10/2,5,6 $12
$1 3/2,5,6/4,10/2,5,6 $18

$48 total

Late
$1 2,4,6,12/1,2,5/2,5,6,9/6,8 $96
$1 12/1,2,5/6,9/8 $6

$102 total