Good God

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I know it's WFA, but the scales in Europe favor the 3yo's to an extreme in relation to how things are in North America.

You mention the Arc ... since 1994, 3-year-olds have won the Arc 13 times while older horses have won the Arc just 3 times.

Compare that to our Breeders Cup Races:

3-year-olds have taken 9 BC Classics while older horses have won 17.

3-year-olds have taken 7 BC Turfs while older horses have won 19 races. In one edition a pair of older horses dead-heated - so you could say 20 wins.

3-year-olds have taken 8 BC Miles while older horses have won 18.

3-year-olds have taken 7 BC Distaffs while older horses have won 19.

3-year-olds have taken 6 BC Sprints while older horses have won 20.

I think the spread in weight has something to do with that. If you believe Thoro-Graph or the Ragozin sheets, 8 pounds at 12 furlongs equals 3 3/4 lengths ... which is a very significant margin in a turf race. If you believe Beyer's study in Beyer on Speed the impact is about 2.5 lengths.

Basically, the older horses give a way a big handicap to 3yo's in a race like the Arc. In the Breeders Cup races - the weight break the 3yo's get is just half of what it is in the Arc.




I get that.

I've never been a big fan of speed figures for turf races - but since '91 when they've first been published - the top figure earned in a turf race was a 118. Daylami's BC Turf win was a 118 for instance.

Considering the beaten length margins between each horse in the field - and the final time in the next race at the same distance ... it's 100% impossible for the winners Beyer figure to be anything less than a 120 and even when you bake some real caution into the number - it's still in the 125 range .. which makes it literally open lengths better than any single performance we've seen in a turf race since '91 over in North America.

You go on about how the two 3yo's are just ok - overrated horses who are far from superstars. How the two big older horses are just honest nothing special types who didn't run to their best. That's fine. Even assuming that all of them didn't fire their good race and ran at a level that might get them beat in one of our typical crappy Grade 3 turf stakes in America .. even assuming that, the winner still ran a better race than any turf winner we've ever seen in America since '91 based on figures.




That's fine. Outside of two races at 12 furlongs at Ascot ... what special has this winner ever done in his career? Nothing special.

I'm of the opinion that's he a rapidly improving 4yo and not a course and trip specialist ... but great horses always have to go and hold form for the public to give them the respect they deserve.

What he does in the Arc over possible soft ground, without such a choice early position, for a legendary trainer who I believe still hasn't won the race before ... that is what will ultimately define the horse in the public's eye. In my eye .. what he does in that situation won't matter at all.

His performance yesterday was an all-time great treasure - both visually and analytically.

I'm not into art or music that much .. but he just painted a picture or put together a song for the ages. His next few pieces of work will determine his place with the great artists, but his piece of work yesterday was as good as it ever gets and nothing can change it much.

Fantastic post.

[CSC]

From a betting perspective I'm more excited about Paco Boy if that one comes over for the BC, knowing Goldikova will be all the rave over here.

[PatCummings]

Richard Hannon is staying home with all his horses, unless he changes his story. He said his horses race in Europe, nothing wrong with staying there...this was about 1.5 months ago. So don't get all excited waiting for Paco Boy, or any of his others...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Richard Hannon is staying home with all his horses, unless he changes his story. He said his horses race in Europe, nothing wrong with staying there...this was about 1.5 months ago. So don't get all excited waiting for Paco Boy, or any of his others...

He's had some misfortune at the BC, including the breakdown of Mr. Brooks in the sprint I believe it was at Gulfstream Park. He's got a neat website, for those who are interested.

http://www.richardhannonracing.tv/news.php

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Fantastic post.

Drugs I agree with above - it was..

He gets a RPR of 135 for it - That sounded quite low but it sounds like theyve taken a very conservative view of it

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/hom...280182452.0112

The last time I can think of a race like this was the 2003 Lockinge when Hawk Wing demolished a proper G1 field and got a ridiculously high mark which was eventually scaled down. However, on some lines of form, he could have been rated the best horse of all time, a bit like Saturday's race.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Drugs I agree with above - it was..

He gets a RPR of 135 for it - That sounded quite low but it sounds like theyve taken a very conservative view of it

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/hom...280182452.0112

The last time I can think of a race like this was the 2003 Lockinge when Hawk Wing demolished a proper G1 field and got a ridiculously high mark which was eventually scaled down. However, on some lines of form, he could have been rated the best horse of all time, a bit like Saturday's race.

i don't think he ever duplicated that effort, did he? i remember him coming over for the classic that year, he didn't do much. a shame, as he was a nice horse. another bred here and taken overseas to shine; i think he was a PA bred?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't think he ever duplicated that effort, did he? i remember him coming over for the classic that year, he didn't do much. a shame, as he was a nice horse. another bred here and taken overseas to shine; i think he was a PA bred?

Hawk Wing was a KY bred. For a minute I thought he might have been a Strawbridge PA bred, sold at auction to Coolmore, but if memory serves me correctly he was a Coolmore homebred.



Great thread guys. I don't know what to add other than that's in the top 3 performances I've ever seen on turf. Stunning turn of foot in the lane.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hawk Wing was a KY bred. For a minute I thought he might have been a Strawbridge PA bred, sold at auction to Coolmore, but if memory serves me correctly he was a Coolmore homebred.



Great thread guys. I don't know what to add other than that's in the top 3 performances I've ever seen on turf. Stunning turn of foot in the lane.

ok, thanks. one of those back in his day was a pa bred, maybe a filly running about the same time as him. edit-then again, maybe not. just looked up nebraska tornado, but she's also ky-bred...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

ok, thanks. one of those back in his day was a pa bred, maybe a filly running about the same time as him. edit-then again, maybe not. just looked up nebraska tornado, but she's also ky-bred...

Are you thinking of With Anticipation?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

Are you thinking of With Anticipation?

hellifiknow

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hawk Wing was a KY bred. For a minute I thought he might have been a Strawbridge PA bred, sold at auction to Coolmore, but if memory serves me correctly he was a Coolmore homebred.

Hill 'n' Dale

[CSC]

I remember conversing with a knowledgable British Horseracing fan about the time when Aiden O'Brien had Rock Of Gibralter, High Chapparal, and Hawk Wing in the same stable all racing as 3 yr olds and he thought Hawk Wing was the best of the 3, as it turned out in terms of winning grade 1's he was the least accomplished but in terms of ability he was very bullish on his ability. He was out of the Windsfields farm(Northern Dancer raced for the same outfit) race mare La Lorgnette, a filly good enough to win the Queen's Plate. But that is saying quite alot considering the other 2's accomplishments on track.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by brockguy

The last time I can think of a race like this was the 2003 Lockinge when Hawk Wing demolished a proper G1 field and got a ridiculously high mark which was eventually scaled down. However, on some lines of form, he could have been rated the best horse of all time, a bit like Saturday's race.

The big Hawk Wing win is a lot harder for someone with an American racing background to appreciate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiXbsSCdGLs

It came in one of those goofy straight line no-turn mile races we never see over here - in the rain - and he was allowed a free ride on a totally uncontested early lead.

In our turf races, you tend to get larger margin of victories and gaps between horses in the rare instances that they run while it's raining out.

Hawk Wing rallied from 8th to finish a well clear 2nd on yielding ground in the 12f English Derby .. that huge 8f win was the only time in his life he ever made the lead - and he did it so easily without anyone contesting it and at a distance of just one mile for a horse who had no trouble seeing out 12 furlongs.

Obviously, the performance itself was beyond amazing.. but you did have some smoke and mirrors in play ... while Harbinger came from mid-pack on firm ground in weather conditions that looked picture perfect.

I looked up Hawk Wing's form - and he only ran one more time after this. That start came in the Queen Anne .. where instead of galloping on a loose lead, he was back in mid-pack early. He was beaten double digit lengths in a total non-effort - obviously something BADLY amiss. He never ran again. Tillerman, whom he beat by 24+ lengths in his romp was 2nd in that Queen Anne .. a full 6.5 lengths in front of him.

The Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheet people who make figures in our country would call that "bouncing to the moon" and they'd probably be bragging on their boards the following day about how they predicted the huge top figure to lead to serious impending doom.

[CSC]

The thing about Hawk Wing or his achilles heel was he needed fast ground to be at his best, he didn't act well or wasn't as effective to what the Brits like to refer to as when there is 'cut' in the ground. This is why I always regarded High Chapparal to be superior to him. He was more versatile where Kinane once even referred to him as a lazy horse that only did what was required of him in works and races.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

The thing about Hawk Wing or his achilles heel was he needed fast ground to be at his best,

No he didn't.

The two biggest wins of his career were the Group 1 Eclipse and Group 1 Lockinge ... his easy win in the Eclipse came on yielding ground and his 11 lengths win in the Lockinge came while it was raining.

He was 2nd in the English Derby - 12 lengths ahead of 3rd place - on yielding as well.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No he didn't.

The two biggest wins of his career were the Group 1 Eclipse and Group 1 Lockinge ... his easy win in the Eclipse came on yielding ground and his 11 lengths win in the Lockinge came while it was raining.

He was 2nd in the English Derby - 12 lengths ahead of 3rd place - on yielding as well.

I know that what it says in the past p's, but I wish I could reproduce Aiden's quotes and the conversations I had with my Brit contact, I remember them well when it came to the big 3 in Aiden's stable that year. HW was much better on fast ground, obviously he struggled on dirt and when the ground wasn't hard or certainly he didn't run to his VAST ability.

[CSC]

MichAel Clower and Bill Barber

HAWK WING is set to reappear in the Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes on Saturday provided the going at Newbury is good or faster - setting up a fascinating clash with his Ascot conqueror Where Or When and Breeders' Cup Mile hero Domedriver.

The trio were among 15 to stand their ground for the Group 1 contest yesterday. Domedriver - who was

reported to be "looking fantastic" by Alan Cooper, racing manager to owners the Niarchos family, over the weekend - is Coral's 2-1 favourite for the race, with Where Or When

100-30 and Hawk Wing 4-1.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Being a complete idiot, though, CSC couldn't help but be completely, 100% wrong.

He first says this ...

Originally Posted by CSC

The thing about Hawk Wing or his achilles heel was he needed fast ground to be at his best, he didn't act well or wasn't as effective to what the Brits like to refer to as when there is 'cut' in the ground.

And instead of backing off ... he defends it by saying that he doesn't use how a horse performs as a barometer .. he just uses "horsemanship" .... and I guess his idea of good horsemanship involves guesses at what a horse probably won't like that later prove to be poor guesses.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Being a complete idiot, though, CSC couldn't help but be completely, 100% wrong.

He first says this ...



And instead of backing off ... he defends it by saying that he doesn't use how a horse performs as a barometer .. he just uses "horsemanship" .... and I guess his idea of good horsemanship involves guesses at what a horse probably won't like that later prove to be poor guesses.

No, he's basically using the rationale that his trainer knows better about the horse than we do. He falls into that common trap where people believe that someone with limited brains that is closer to a situation automatically knows better than someone who is much smarter, but not tied directly to the situation.

So, despite what is clear to everyones eyes, since some idiot 'insider' says something completely ridiculous, it must be right.

[CSC]

I don't know if IDrugS knows that in europe they do not solely use the simple ratings as we do in North America, firm, good, soft, yielding. He probably thinks he has nothing to learn in the game anymore, but in an effort to enlighten him, there is more to reading up on past p's than what is offered from the DRF.

Here is the link to Europe's preiminate Horseracing Publication that will end this. Where terms such as Good/Yielding, Good/Soft, Good, Soft apply, a much more accurate detailing of the amount of cut in the ground.

Obcourse he used I guess the DRF past p's to base his entire analysis that Hawk Wing was very effective on yielding ground. But in essence it was labeled as Good To soft in the Eclipse over his hapless stablemate Sholokhov. If this is what he is basing Hawk Wing is effective on softer ground, he is surely wrong. He just won't or cannot admit that he still has a few things to learn about European racing.

Here's Hawk Wing's complete Past p's according to Racing Post. You decide, obcourse the alternative is Coolmore has a dunce running their operation, one that cannot distuinguish ground conditions.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/hor...orse_id=547525

BTW notice the lost to Rock Of Gibralter on actual 'yielding' ground.