7/17 (CNL): VA Derby (G2), VA Oaks (G3)

the_fat_man · #1 07-12-2010, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Of course, Paddy was up and on the pace, I get it. The odds were like 9-2 and 40-1 a bit more ressistance would have been nice. Is it not possible that simply when SV is right and on turf he just has a bigger kick?

There's a significant difference between SV and POP. The former needs a lot of help to win a race, the latter doesn't -- as he proved last time out. Not too many horses around that can win without help. Now, you can argue that POP got a nice inside trip last out but he passed 2 horses in a race with minimal movement and did it without help. SV can certainly beat him but it would have to be a race in which there is a lot of movement and POP is forced to move earlier in the flow. In other words, he needs to last move a collapsing field.

pba1817 · #2 07-13-2010, 03:36 AM

IMO...

Try drawing a line thru Stately Victor's Blue Grass, and he pretty much looks like a 25-1 shot in here...

Krypton is suspect at beyond a mile, at 1 1/4? He might relish the added ground... but I won't be betting on it.

Two Notch Road, Krypton, Majestictroubador, Awesome Dream, Formulaforsuccess, are ALL need the lead or need to be near the lead types to run their best races.

I've been wrong many times before, but this sure looks like slam dunk for Paddy.

Indian Charlie · #3 07-13-2010, 07:56 AM

The Derby Trail Oracle has pretty much assured a win by him.

Dahoss · #4 07-13-2010, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817

IMO...

Try drawing a line thru Stately Victor's Blue Grass, and he pretty much looks like a 25-1 shot in here...

Krypton is suspect at beyond a mile, at 1 1/4? He might relish the added ground... but I won't be betting on it.

Two Notch Road, Krypton, Majestictroubador, Awesome Dream, Formulaforsuccess, are ALL need the lead or need to be near the lead types to run their best races.

I've been wrong many times before, but this sure looks like slam dunk for Paddy.

You should try watching some replays sometime.

Paddy could win and is probably most likely to. But at what I think he'll be
(8/5ish) I think you have to try and beat him.

pba1817 · #5 07-13-2010, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You should try watching some replays sometime.

Paddy could win and is probably most likely to. But at what I think he'll be
(8/5ish) I think you have to try and beat him.

The goal is to pick the winner, right?

RockHardTen1985 · #6 07-13-2010, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817

The goal is to pick the winner, right?

Why the sarcasim? I agree with him, Paddy IMO will be around 6-5 and is a pretty bad favorite, look at the trip he pulled last time, never once left the rail, not untill he made the winning move, no traffic, no checking, no getting boxed in, just a perfect trip.

Dahoss · #7 07-13-2010, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why the sarcasim?

You're not helping here.

RockHardTen1985 · #8 07-13-2010, 01:15 PM

They have an All Stakes pick 5, not sure if its a 50 cent minimum. Also not sure if its even playable, the first 3 legs are WIDE OPEN.

pba1817 · #9 07-13-2010, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why the sarcasim? I agree with him, Paddy IMO will be around 6-5 and is a pretty bad favorite, look at the trip he pulled last time, never once left the rail, not untill he made the winning move, no traffic, no checking, no getting boxed in, just a perfect trip.

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic... I am just saying, the goal is to pick the winner, yes it is great when you can pick a a winner that is juicy rather than being a chalk eating weasel, but in this race I think the chalk is by far the most logical selection. And at 8/5 I think is a good play. Exactas, and tri's.

RockHardTen1985 · #10 07-13-2010, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic... I am just saying, the goal is to pick the winner, yes it is great when you can pick a a winner that is juicy rather than being a chalk eating weasel, but in this race I think the chalk is by far the most logical selection. And at 8/5 I think is a good play. Exactas, and tri's.

Why would he be 8-5? He is 7-5 morning line? I dont think he is any higher then 6-5 and I think its possible people get crazy and he is odds on. I play chalk a lot, I single chalk all the time in my bets, I think the term chalk eating weasel is crazy, but I think there is good chalk and bad chalk, and I think Paddy is bad chalk, for example the race before, Ramon is 7-5 ML I think she is good chalk and a very likely winner.

Dahoss · #11 07-13-2010, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817

The goal is to pick the winner, right?

Absolutely, who said it wasn't?

knickslions2 · #12 07-13-2010, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You should try watching some replays sometime.

Paddy could win and is probably most likely to. But at what I think he'll be
(8/5ish) I think you have to try and beat him.

Wish he would be 8-5. Be lucky to get 6-5 on him. He is going tobe really tough to beat here.

booner · #13 07-16-2010, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Wish he would be 8-5. Be lucky to get 6-5 on him. He is going to be really tough to beat here.

I feel the same. He will be one of two singles in my Pick 5 play.

1/5,9/3,4,5,7,9,11/2,3,5,8/7 = $48 (for a buck)

CSC · #14 07-17-2010, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Wish he would be 8-5. Be lucky to get 6-5 on him. He is going tobe really tough to beat here.

Interactif is a very good horse on turf with an excellent turn of foot. If he gets a decent trip off of the speed today, he should give Paddy O Prado more than he can handle in the stretch. He's better than Paddy O on turf, I would play him on top with confidence to win and with POP on the bottom in a logical exacta.

Hoist Her Flag · #15 07-17-2010, 12:44 PM

Paddy look s tough but I,m going with interact if and stately victor.

CSC · #16 07-17-2010, 04:08 PM

Just curious, is Ramon the reason why Stately Victor is attracting some interest?

RockHardTen1985 · #17 07-13-2010, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

There's a significant difference between SV and POP. The former needs a lot of help to win a race, the latter doesn't -- as he proved last time out. Not too many horses around that can win without help. Now, you can argue that POP got a nice inside trip last out but he passed 2 horses in a race with minimal movement and did it without help. SV can certainly beat him but it would have to be a race in which there is a lot of movement and POP is forced to move earlier in the flow. In other words, he needs to last move a collapsing field.

Help me understand something, help me become a better handicapper...
Is there and what is the difference between a horse making a premature move and just getting ran down, or a horse making a premature move and the race collapsing? If you make a premature move and get beat, by the horse making the last move that dosent mean the race collapsed,does it?