Rachel to Monmouth on July 24...

Thunder Gulch · #1 07-08-2010, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What does what QR did last year have to do with his races this year?

There are a handful here who can't comprehend the constant of change.

CSC · #2 07-08-2010, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

There are a handful here who can't comprehend the constant of change.

This is a silly argument, if you are betting real money and you are looking at the past performances, you mean to tell me it isn't useful to look at what a horse has done prior to 2010? You are correct, some cannot comprehend the constant of logic.

the_fat_man · #3 07-08-2010, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

This is a silly argument, if you are betting real money and you are looking at the past performances, you mean to tell me it isn't useful to look at what a horse has done prior to 2010? You are correct, some cannot comprehend the constant of logic.

The horse showed last year it couldn't get 10F (on TWO occasions). This year the horse has been limited to 2 8F races and a 9F race on the speed favoring GP oval. And has yet to face a REAL horse. YET, the suggestion that last year's 10F races are relevant gets his supporters out in force. Funny how simple things seem to escape them. It'll be interesting to see how eager they all are to bet their money on him going 10F in the Classic, where he just might face some competition. Of course, this assumes he shows up for it. Not a done deal, at all. Last I heard the race was at CD not GP.

cmorioles · #4 07-08-2010, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The horse showed last year it couldn't get 10F (on TWO occasions). This year the horse has been limited to 2 8F races and a 9F race on the speed favoring GP oval. And has yet to face a REAL horse. YET, the suggestion that last year's 10F races are relevant gets his supporters out in force. Funny how simple things seem to escape them. It'll be interesting to see how eager they all are to bet their money on him going 10F in the Classic, where he just might face some competition. Of course, this assumes he shows up for it. Not a done deal, at all. Last I heard the race was at CD not GP.

Couldn't get 10f? One was off a layoff with nothing but a 6.5f prep and he was on a very fast pace and weakened very late, the other he ran very well to narrowly lose to the Belmont winner. That means he can't "get" 10f?

Dahoss · #5 07-08-2010, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

This is a silly argument, if you are betting real money and you are looking at the past performances, you mean to tell me it isn't useful to look at what a horse has done prior to 2010? You are correct, some cannot comprehend the constant of logic.

No one is talking about though. Of course when betting you would do that. But The Closeted Man was talking about what QR had done this year, then jumped to last year.

One has nothing to do with the other.

CSC · #6 07-08-2010, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

No one is talking about though. Of course when betting you would do that. But The Closeted Man was talking about what QR had done this year, then jumped to last year.

One has nothing to do with the other.

I understand what you are saying, however as horseplayers we have to use all of the information we have available to make that call. I am not convinced QR will be better at 1 1/4 than he is at 1 mile from what I have seen of him. I'm not even sure he will offer any value if he is classic bound. To me he represents a great opportunity as a bet against if he continues to win and lines up as the favorite in the Classic.

slotdirt · #7 07-08-2010, 05:40 PM

Understood. My point was that lots of horses improve from three to four, and just because a horse failed going 10 panels at three doesn't mean he/she can't win going the same distance a year later.

CSC · #8 07-08-2010, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Understood. My point was that lots of horses improve from three to four, and just because a horse failed going 10 panels at three doesn't mean he/she can't win going the same distance a year later.

Again, not to keep reiterating I understand the 3 to 4 improvement cycle. Some horses just strike you as classic distance horses, some more than others. Summer Bird was a horse you knew would be better once he stretched out in distance. I don't get that feeling with QR, maybe he does-maybe he doesn't. At what price does one take on him given his bet down tendacies?

ateamstupid · #9 07-08-2010, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I understand what you are saying, however as horseplayers we have to use all of the information we have available to make that call. I am not convinced QR will be better at 1 1/4 than he is at 1 mile from what I have seen of him. I'm not even sure he will offer any value if he is classic bound. To me he represents a great opportunity as a bet against if he continues to win and lines up as the favorite in the Classic.

Just like the_manic_depressive_man, you're changing the subject. The discussion was about 2010 HOY and where they stand at this point. What QR did last year has absolutely nothing to do with that.

CSC · #10 07-08-2010, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Just like the_manic_depressive_man, you're changing the subject. The discussion was about 2010 HOY and where they stand at this point. What QR did last year has absolutely nothing to do with that.

Yep, unlike you, some don't have their lives revolve around who will be HOY.

If you don't know by now it means nothing to me or very little.

ateamstupid · #11 07-08-2010, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Yep, unlike you, some don't have their lives revolve around who will be HOY.

If you don't know by now it means nothing to me or very little.

TMDM was the one who brought up HOY in a defense of Zenyatta's schedule, asshat. I don't really care what it means to you, but you jumped into a discussion about 2010 HOY started by one of your butt buddies and then started yammering about QR not being a horseplayer's horse or something.

Dahoss · #12 07-08-2010, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I understand what you are saying, however as horseplayers we have to use all of the information we have available to make that call. I am not convinced QR will be better at 1 1/4 than he is at 1 mile from what I have seen of him. I'm not even sure he will offer any value if he is classic bound. To me he represents a great opportunity as a bet against if he continues to win and lines up as the favorite in the Classic.

No I don't think you do understand what I'm saying. The Closeted Man wasn't talking about betting. No one was. He was going off on another one of his rants and what QR did last year had nothing to do with his performances last year.

That's something you Zenyattatards can't seem to grasp. What happened last year was last year.

Sure, I prefer betting discussions but not every discussion is about betting. TCM's post definitely wasn't.

slotdirt · #13 07-08-2010, 07:33 PM

Find me the person who "just knew" that Summer Bird was going to be anything last year even after the Derby. That's some very solid hindsight.

Danzig · #14 07-08-2010, 07:33 PM

so, QR got a third and a second at 10f last year, but he can't get 10f? he entered the travers off a layoff, and then one sprint. then he contested the lead early, and battled with summer bird late, before finishing second in the gold cup. but he can't 'get' 10f? i'd like to see him make a few more efforts at that distance. he may get a mile or so better than 10f, but i don't think it's a given he would lose at the classic distance in the future.