7/3-4 (MTH): United Nations (G1), Salvator (G3); Jersey Shore (G3)

the_fat_man · #1 07-03-2010, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Ughh, what if he is just not that good in the first place? I dont like him today, he can prove me wrong, Im leaning everything on Chinchon and SS.

SS has to show me that he can run well against good horses. TTP has already shown that. The two figure to pretty much get the same trip today. Your position is that it makes more sense to bet the longer of the two. While this might work in statistics and has specific application in horse racing, it doesn't work that well, IMO, in this particular case. Here, I'll take shorter odds on what I consider to be the better horse rather than stab with a horse of lesser ability just because he'll be longer odds. In other words, SS is NOT winning this race. Too many other horses have to NOT RUN for him to win.

RockHardTen1985 · #2 07-03-2010, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

SS has to show me that he can run well against good horses. TTP has already shown that. The two figure to pretty much get the same trip today. Your position is that it makes more sense to bet the longer of the two. While this might work in statistics and has specific application in horse racing, it doesn't work that well, IMO, in this particular case. Here, I'll take shorter odds on what I consider to be the better horse rather than stab with a horse of lesser ability just because he'll be longer odds. In other words, SS is NOT winning this race. Too many other horses have to NOT RUN for him to win.

Good Luck Fats, I did not put much into it, I played the 2 pick 3's I posted and I used Chinchon equally.

Hoist Her Flag · #3 07-03-2010, 01:33 PM

I just found a replay of the 2010 Chantilly race (the last race for Chinchon) he somehow was blocked the entire length of the stretch in a 5 horse field. I played him last year in the Manhatten and he wasn't good enough that day. Looks tough in this spot. passing if under 7/2.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 07-03-2010, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

I just found a replay of the 2010 Chantilly race (the last race for Chinchon) he somehow was blocked the entire length of the stretch in a 5 horse field. I played him last year in the Manhatten and he wasn't good enough that day. Looks tough in this spot. passing if under 7/2.

I dont really want Winchester and hoping 1 of the speeds can rate and get first jump, Chinchon appears to be the logical one, as far as making the last run.

the_fat_man · #5 07-03-2010, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Good Luck Fats, I did not put much into it, I played the 2 pick 3's I posted and I used Chinchon equally.

You too.

I'll bet to win if I get morning line or >.

RockHardTen1985 · #6 07-03-2010, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You too.

I'll be to win if I get morning line or >.

Luck sucks Fats, this one hurt...and I normally dont play tris

2010-07-03 05:27:10 PM Monmouth Park Race 10 $10 TF on 4,7,8 with 4,7,8 with 4,7,8 (ticket:34898-41252) $60.00