7/3: Belmont ($37k C/O); Monmouth (6th-12th)

[Kasept]

Tough sledding chasing P6 carries at CD and HOL Friday night in anticipation of the big July 4th Weekend of racing. Churchill sextet ended up paying a very nice $45k, but 4 of 6 was the best I could manage. Later at Hollywood, the knockout punch came mercifully early for me, but successful players got $38k back. Holiday kicks off big time today with wide variety of Stakes and other quality action to follow:

UNITED NATIONS S. (G1), Monmouth Park, $750,000, 3&up, 1 3/8mT.
SALVATOR MILE S. (G3), Monmouth Park, $250,000, 3&up, 1m.
SUBURBAN H. (G2), Belmont Park, $300,000, 3&up, 1 1/8m.
AMERICAN OAKS (G1), Hollywood Park, $250,000, 3yo, f, 1 1/4mT.
ROYAL HEROINE MILE S. (G2), Hollywood Park, $150,000, 3&up, f&m, 1mT.
ARLINGTON OAKS (G3), Arlington Park, $100,000, 3yo, f, 1 1/8m.
BASHFORD MANOR S. (G3), Churchill Downs, $100,000, 2yo, 6f.
LOCUST GROVE H. (G3), Churchill Downs, $100,000, 3&up, f&m, 1mT.

I'll focus on NY/NJ this weekend while Gus Alonso takes on AP and CD (on its' closing weekend)... Safe and happy and lucrative 4th to all!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Modestly talented but well-matched group..

Most Likely: #7 Solutionfinders 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Unforgettable P J 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Felice Di Notte 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Tapitdar 5-2 WON ($5.00)


6th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$37,585 P6 Carryover

Most Likely: #8 Pegasus Ena 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1a (POE) Jericho Rules 6-1 8th/6th (POE-1)
Next Best: #2 Strolldownbroadway 7-2 3rd


7th: MSW, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

About time for the favorite to break through.. Any horse named for one of the most delightful restaurants to ever grace the NYC dining scene needs to live up to the moniker of the Lincoln Center adjacent institution..

Most Likely: #1 Cafe des Artistes 2-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Ad Infinitum 3-1 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #7 Wicked Tune 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Scary Guy 8-1 7th


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Pegasus Tommy D 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #8 Spa City Fever 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 J L Bernstein 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Flowersonyourback 4-1 6th


9th: 124th Suburban (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Not the greatest edition of this event certainly, but a puzzling curiosity in many ways with returning players I Want Revenge and Regal Ransom largely unknowns in regard to level of preparedness. From that standpoint, Dutrow is typically reliable off layoffs, and as Nick Tammaro pointed out on ATR Friday, Godolphin's returnee have numbingly bad... For wagering purposes, 4-1 Conocation and 5-1 Haynesfield are the ones you want to get into the picture..

Best Value: #6 Haynesfield 5-1 WON ($9.90)
Next Best: #3 Convocation 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) I Want Revenge 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Regal Ransom 2-1 4th


10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (DD, Super)

#11 Expedition moves to Rudy Rodriguez who is winning at 65% with acquirees. That's right... 13 of the 20 horses that have arrived in his magical barn have won first time under his care. So while it would be far more fun to include possible price players like Mr. Enrico (15-1) as a 4th horse, you are instead obliged to continue to use RudyRod horses in spots like this until the wizardry ebbs.. NOTE: Expedition has SCR'd, but advice stands..

Most Likely: #3 Joey's Chance 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Mr. Vantastic 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Abilio 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Mr. Enrico 15-1 2nd


11th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #7 Chromospere 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #11 El Tune 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Bishop of Nola 4-1 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 1-8
7: 1-7-8
8: 6-8
9: 1-3-6
10: 3
11: 7-11

2x3x2x3x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-6-8
9: 1-3-6
10: 3-4-9-11
11: 7-11

3x3x4x2 = $72



MONMOUTH PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, DD, Super)

How about Bon Marie and Zappa lining up next to each other? Only 30 wins in 113 starts between them!

Most Likely: #6 Bon Marie 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Zappa 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Berning Baze 8-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Leadwithyourchin 5-1 5th


7th: CLM, 3-4yo, 6f (P3, DD. Super)

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Best Value: #6 Don't Blame the Cat 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Chasing Ted 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 End of Conversation 8-1 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 The Cognac Kid 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Gator Tiger 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #8 Chosen Empire 10-1 6th


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Hunter's Bay 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #8 Harmonizer 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Numb Lips 5-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Charles Russell 8-1 8th


10th: 57th United Nations (G1), 3+, 11f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating version of this famous turf test with a shocking amount of front-end runners signed on, and Precious Passion isn't even involved.. Inclined to expect a rousing finish similar to what you saw in Winchester's Manhattan win Belmont Day..

Best Value: #8 Chinchon 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Next Best: #5 Winchester 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Jeune-Turc 10-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Telling 10-1 6th


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 4-5-6-10-11-12
7: 1-6
8: 6-7
9: 4-8
10: 5-6-8

6x2x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


11th: 63rd Salvator Mile (G3), 3+, 1m (DD)

Only 5 signed on but a quirky little event..

Best Value: #2 Le Grand Cru 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Duke of Mischief 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 You and I Forever 5-2 3rd


12th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #8 I'm Sure 4-1 10th
Best Value: #7 Black Hawk Soaring 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Empty Handed 3-1 4th
Super Add: #12 Into the Wind 5-1 6th


@$75 P4 Play:

9: 4-8
10: 5-8
11: ALL
12: 6-7-8-12

2x2x5x4 = $80


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

Race 6 #3 River Smoke, #10 Fried

Race 7 #5 Hard Rock Quest

Race 10 #7 Tocco d'Oro, #11 Expedition, #13 Seis de Mayo

Race 11 #2 Screenplay, #5 Kick Up Your Heels, #1A Verveitup

[Kasept]

MTH SCR/CHG'S


Race 6 #7 No More Tears, #13 Classic Fran

Race 7 #3 Rasher

Race 8 #12 Wild Entry (JPN), #13 Solvent, #14 More Than Willing

Race 9 #9 Pulsion

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Kasept

#11 Expedition moves to Rudy Rodriguez who is winning at 65% with acquirees. That's right... 13 of the 20 horses that have arrived in his magical barn have won first time under his care. So while it would be far more fun to include possible price players like Mr. Enrico (15-1) as a 4th horse, you are instead obliged to continue to use RudyRod horses in spots like this until the wizardry ebbs.. NOTE: Expedition has SCR'd, but advice stands..

It will be interesting to see how he does at Saratoga. In the old days, guys like Serey and Ferriola didn't even bother trying to win up here.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

It will be interesting to see how he does at Saratoga. In the old days, guys like Serey and Ferriola didn't even bother trying to win up here.

I think that tracks that allow JUICERS free run should offer REDUCED TAKEOUT rates in races where said juicers have runners. This is because the bettor is FORCED to spend extra money, taking extra combinations, to cover his ass in the case of exceptional/unexpected results. Game is hard enough without having to account for the likes of RUDY, Jordan (up at WO), Ness, Mitchell, etc.