Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

Conventional wisdom of training?? Is that the "cheat as much as possible without being caught" angle that so many "great" trainers of today are enjoying???

I am sure you are aware of it, but just in case.... here is a nice piece of reading for you or anyone else who thinks that everything and everybody is on the up and up.

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/

Read the sections, Administration Hearings and Complaints/Accusations.

IMO, this is the real reason the people in control are leaning to Polytrack, and thats to hopefully reduce/eliminate the necessity for trainers to cheat just to get their horses healthy enough to be competitive.

This is also why Jeff Mullins said anyone who bets on horses is stupid... he knows exactly whats going on out the on the backside... He was trying to do everyone a favor.. instead everyone got pissed at him...

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.

[blackthroatedwind]

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

[TitanSooner]

I can't wait to see a closer win at Keeneland

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

I can't wait to see a closer win at Keeneland

Arabian Light, Unshaded, Clockstopper, it happens...

[Pointg5]

Up 13%, how did you ever arrive at that number, I love it when people throw up nonsensical things..

Kycherub strikes again...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Up 13%, how did you ever arrive at that number, I love it when people throw up nonsensical things..

Kycherub strikes again...

Their handle goes way down, no way does it go up. And oh, ummm, how did Turfway end up this past meet. A certain liar on this board was talking about how much they were gonna be up, etc. Guys an exposed liar.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Up 13%, how did you ever arrive at that number, I love it when people throw up nonsensical things..

Kycherub strikes again...

I arrived at the number from reading the minutes of their meetings. I also arrived at that number based on conversations from Turfway Executives that sit on the Keeneland board. I didnt just randomly throw out a number. Keeneland has very very lofty expectations for this fall meet.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

The 2yo races were unpredictable because the horses running in them were lightly raced and most were trying a new distance, and around two turns, for the first time. The most fancied runners in the filly and mare race (Prospective Saint, Splendid Blended) looked like they would be gasping for air at the 8th pole - Polytrack does seem to demand more stamina than many surfaces. The mare race winner hadn't tried 2 turns in a very long while (at least 2 years), her pedigree said she should like it, and her form this year was decent in sprints. And the sprint winner had become a different horse with Douglas up; his form was was no worse than most in the field - a mdn win and a n1x win. These fields were not filled with established top class horses to begin with.

[Pedigree Ann]

The reason tracks are installing artificial surfaces instead of better dirt tracks is maintenance costs. A good, deep dirt track that is properly banked on the turns takes a lot of care - to keep the cushion from migrating to the rail on the turns (gravity), to keep it at the right density by harrowing water into it, to keep it from becoming a quagmire in rain or a skating rink in cold. This means a lot of workers and a lot of equipment. Track managers are counting the beans and see that a surface that only needs occasional harrowing will save them beaucoup bucks. The cheap and easy way to keep horses from breaking down more often, as opposed to what we traditionalists would call the right way.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.

YOu are a liar, and you have a vested interest in the stuff.
Care to tell us all about the Turfway numbers for the past meet?
Oh, and nice try saying that 5 horses 15-1 or longer could win stakes like that in one day. Where have you ever seen that? Go ahead and try and pull one card from anywhere at any track where they ran 5 stakes races in one day and ALL were bombs. Get real will you? WHo do you think you are talking to here, idiots?
Its like the first time in history that a track runs 5 stakes on one card and every horse is an unfathomable bomb. YOu wanna explain to us, that just happens, yeah ok sure.
No please get those Turfway figures for us if you will.
Bet you any amount you wanna bet!!! Keeneland's handle goes down.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface.

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

They got beat by BALL FOUR!!!...Yeah, thats right..I said BALL FOUR beat them!!!

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Do you really think Premium Tap would have lost if he hadn't lost his momentum on the turn?

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

My horse had the same problem SHOW JUMPING on the stuff. For some reason, he would slip very easily if the surface wasn't dragged on a regular basis, where as he never had that kind of problem on grass or clay.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

My horse had the same problem SHOW JUMPING on the stuff. For some reason, he would slip very easily if the surface wasn't dragged on a regular basis, where as he never had that kind of problem on grass or clay.

Funny that you mention it Cajun!! Many seem to slip at the start and crash the gate, I've never seen anything like it. And we even had a buck jumper.
Heres some chart calls and comments from Kentucky Cup day, all verifiable at www.equibase.com under full charts section.

Race 1- Dancing Skeeanno - hopped Start

Race 4- Shot Gun Cliff- lost footing after start
Base Commander- hit gate start

Race 7- Cognac Kisses- broke in the air
Lucky Savannah- stumbled after start

Race 9- Hey Bill- hit gate start

race 10- Natalicat- buck jumped

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Do you really think it would have been that close if they weren't running on Poly?

Oracle pointed out that the charts from KY Cup Day, had 3 horses that lost footing, hmm, sounds like they didn't like the surface...

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You got me there, but I was simply pointing out that the best horse still would have won had he not stumbled on the turn.

I've since tossed my PP's, but I do recall Ball Four being relatively equal with the rest of the field save Premium Tap. 5 months off was a concern but he had the poly form going for him....you'd think you all would be happy that you could have cashed on a Stakes that brought a price! I'm definitely not a good handicapper, but even I saw that it came down to two horses; Premium Tap & Ball Four so I do think these claims of the surface being un-cappable is a bit premature.

Right, so all we need now is Dionne Warwick's pyshic hotline to tell us in advance who will hate the stuff, and play the other contenders.