Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

[Pedigree Ann]

I'm thinking GOOD works at Kee or TP would be a useful indicator. Especially if their works elsewhere aren't all that much. At least, that found me a 19/1 maiden winner a couple of weekends ago at TP. She looked a logical contender to me - I couldn't believe the price.

Originally Posted by oracle80

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

[2MinsToPost]

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

You better not go to the bathroom again, that stuff smells too. You might as well just break down and die from constipation rather than suffer through a bad smell. Just like horses should run on dirt where they are more likely to break down rather than run on polytrack because it smells. There are plenty of good arguments against polytrack. The fact that it smells a little isn't one of them.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

Originally Posted by Round Pen

[/b]

No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

Your obviously talking to worse trainers than me - no offense...but you have to know the crap trainers to decipher bad steam from the good steam from the good trainers......

[Round Pen]

No I don't think so I think I have been around long enough and know enough of these guys to know who is good and who isn't.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Your obviously talking to worse trainers than me - no offense...but you have to know the crap trainers to decipher bad steam from the good steam from the good trainers......

Joel what these guys don't realize is obviously what you and I do.
Trust me, there are plenty of guys who want nothing to do with racing on this stuff, and after a few beers will tell you plenty.
But noone wants to be painted in the non progressive stroke that the media would paint them in if they talk down about it.
Obvisouly Joel, like I, has had convos with these guys way off the record, and heard the same thing.
Everybody I know just wants a deeper cushion with a safe deeper dirt surface, problem solved. Except some con men can't try and make money marketing dirt now can they.
I find it very obvious that the trainers who talk this stuff up are failures who never won a big race on the dirt in their lives, lots of Eurotrash is basically what likes it.

[Five Star Derek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Joel what these guys don't realize is obviously what you and I do.
Trust me, there are plenty of guys who want nothing to do with racing on this stuff, and after a few beers will tell you plenty.
But noone wants to be painted in the non progressive stroke that the media would paint them in if they talk down about it.
Obvisouly Joel, like I, has had convos with these guys way off the record, and heard the same thing.
Everybody I know just wants a deeper cushion with a safe deeper dirt surface, problem solved. Except some con men can't try and make money marketing dirt now can they.
I find it very obvious that the trainers who talk this stuff up are failures who never won a big race on the dirt in their lives, lots of Eurotrash is basically what likes it.

What will these trainers excuse be when they fail on the new surface too, or they contunue to break down horses? People are acting like Polytrack is the holy grail. I do think Polytrack is good for certain tracks in certain areas but its not the universal answer for all tracks

I have to disagree with you guys when it comes to handicapping on it. I will not be playing Keeneland until I understand where I will get my edge. There should be ways to getting an advantage on this surface just like any other.

[randallscott35]

Hey,

Don't forget its ok still to play the turf at Keenland. A good turf course to bet on. Always liked it.

Originally Posted by Five Star Derek

What will these trainers excuse be when they fail on the new surface too, or they contunue to break down horses? People are acting like Polytrack is the holy grail. I do think Polytrack is good for certain tracks in certain areas but its not the universal answer for all tracks

I have to disagree with you guys when it comes to handicapping on it. I will not be playing Keeneland until I understand where I will get my edge. There should be ways to getting an advantage on this surface just like any other.

Derek, I know a lotta players. Guys who really send it in, whales so to speak. None of em I know wants to touch betting this stuff.
I love to play, really love to. So when I say I won't play a particular surface its a bold statement.
I know that Turfway's everyday cards are very cheap and not good to make comparisons on. But if you look at the three big days they've had there since the stuff was put in last fall, you'll see that none of these horses who won ever came back and did squat, other than High Cotton who is the polytrack poster child(and man thats not saying a whole damn lot).
With A City couldn't beat me across the street and he won a biggie.
Check out the winners on Ky Cup day in the 5 stakes in 2005, then check out Lanes End day earlier this year, the winners have never replicated any dirt form ever afterwards. Then the other day was just a disgrace. Flint's filly couldn't go 5f and she airs going two turns. Anyone wanan take bets on how Reigning Court comes back in stakes races on dirt? Etc.
The problem with this stuff is that regardless of what anyone tells you its a dirt replacement surface. Anyone who tries to tell its not is smoking something pretty strong. Until a track decides to have both Poly and Dirt, instead of replacing dirt with poly, it most definitely is a dirt replacement surface.
I watch races like a hawk, I have to, and I know what I'm seeing.
When this stuff first was put in place I WANTED to like it and find edges for handicapping it.
It didn't take long for me to see that unlike dirt(confirmed by the email posted on the other thread by an asst/exercise rider and about 20 folks I've spoken to), that many horses simply hate it and refuse to try.
These bombs who don't figure aren't usually winning because they love it, they are winning because other horses are simply not putting out on it and refuse to try.
I've called Turfway the "parade grounds" since they got this stuff because thats what the races look like. Woodbine has been even worse!!!
You watch these races and they almost never unfold like dirt races with contested paces. They get extremely strung out like a parade, and down the stretch only 1-2 horses are actually moving on it.
It pains me to notbe able to bet a great meet like Keeneland, but there simply isn't any way anyone can bet anything with conviction. You have no idea how they will run on it. Joels theory of only taking 5-1 or better is pretty good, but I'd go so far as to say 10-1. Just look at last Saturday's results in the 5 stakes races on Ky Cup day.
Whats gonna happen is that after this meet, trainers who have run their horses on the stuff who run poorly will simply avoid it like the plague.
I'm all for keeping horses sound and uninjured, no doubt. Anyone whose ever watched training and heard the sickening crack and seen one go down will tell you that you just wanna vomit, for real.
But this past meet at the Spa they ordered the super to have a huge cushion and deeper surface. It worked spendidly and trainers loved it.
Horses are always gonna break down, Johnny V was injured after a grass race, and we all know about Horatio, and about Funfair in the Cup last year.
Its simply unavoidable.
Darrell Vienna in Cali told the DRF reporter that he couldn't understand why they had to install poly. He asked aloud why they coldn't just have a deeper and safer dirt surface.
Thats the very same question that more than one trainer and owner has asked aloud when speaking about it.
I'd like to know why myself, but I already know the answer, theres not as much money in marketing dirt.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

Conventional wisdom of training?? Is that the "cheat as much as possible without being caught" angle that so many "great" trainers of today are enjoying???

I am sure you are aware of it, but just in case.... here is a nice piece of reading for you or anyone else who thinks that everything and everybody is on the up and up.

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/

Read the sections, Administration Hearings and Complaints/Accusations.

IMO, this is the real reason the people in control are leaning to Polytrack, and thats to hopefully reduce/eliminate the necessity for trainers to cheat just to get their horses healthy enough to be competitive.

This is also why Jeff Mullins said anyone who bets on horses is stupid... he knows exactly whats going on out the on the backside... He was trying to do everyone a favor.. instead everyone got pissed at him...

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.

[blackthroatedwind]

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

[TitanSooner]

I can't wait to see a closer win at Keeneland

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

I can't wait to see a closer win at Keeneland

Arabian Light, Unshaded, Clockstopper, it happens...

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will be surprised if the handle is up and 13% is pretty....ambitious?

I am on the fence but I think the least we can do is pay careful attention and even though I don't plan on betting much, especially early, it is the first good test, at least for me, for polytrack and trying to handicap it.

My gut feeling is that it won't be significantly different but the randomness factor feels like it will increase. If nothing else, I can refute Biancone who told me 95% of horses will perform the same on Polytrack as dirt. I find that hard to believe but he knows better than I do...at least at this point.

One of the joys of handicapping and playing the horses is the adventure and since Polytrack is here, and probably will be appearing at more tracks, it's time to give it a whirl....if not for money then for sport.

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

13% is pretty ambitious, but I dont think it is not possible. I am also a little cautious when Biacone says his horses will perform on dirt just as they do on PolyTrack. But to me, handicapping and figuring out how to handicap different surfaces, tracks etc etc is what makes this sport great. I look forward to see top class horses compete at PolyTrack.

Just make sure and wake me up when a top class horse wins on polytrack and replicates his dirt form.
After Ball Four, Ghetto, Cohiba, Reigning Court, and BB, lol, I'm not holding my breath.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.

YOu are a liar, and you have a vested interest in the stuff.
Care to tell us all about the Turfway numbers for the past meet?
Oh, and nice try saying that 5 horses 15-1 or longer could win stakes like that in one day. Where have you ever seen that? Go ahead and try and pull one card from anywhere at any track where they ran 5 stakes races in one day and ALL were bombs. Get real will you? WHo do you think you are talking to here, idiots?
Its like the first time in history that a track runs 5 stakes on one card and every horse is an unfathomable bomb. YOu wanna explain to us, that just happens, yeah ok sure.
No please get those Turfway figures for us if you will.
Bet you any amount you wanna bet!!! Keeneland's handle goes down.