Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I'd go so far as to say its unplayable.
The 5 stakes races at Turfway park this past weekend contained qulaity animals with form, yet all 5 were won by longshots with little or next to little rational chance.
I didn't bet a quarter on that card, thank God. I simply cannot play this surface. It has no form, and many horses just refuse to run on it. Horses may like or dislike certain dirt surfaces more than others, but they don't jst refuse to try on them.
Stick to the grass, and to Belmont Park and Santa Anita would be an even better idea.

Well Premium Tap would have won had he not gone up Ball Four's butt on the turn. I played Ball Four though in that race only because he was the only one with Poly form.

[JJP]

My rule of thumb for Kee; avoid any race not run on (real) grass.

Jockey - Leparoux
Trainer - Biancone

Are the obvious favorites going into this meet.

But watch for Amoss, Reinstadler, and Wismer to sneak a few prices in. Especially if the east coast big dogs have a few contenders in the races with them.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Jockey - Leparoux
Trainer - Biancone

See, I actually don't think trainers and jockeys will play a huge factor here...I really don't....I know Biancone trains over it at TP and Leparoux is the leading rider at TP - but that still doesn't mean that their horses will like that surface....

I sincerely believe that pedigree is much more important but it is tricky to really figure out......

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

See, I actually don't think trainers and jockeys will play a huge factor here...I really don't....I know Biancone trains over it at TP and Leparoux is the leading rider at TP - but that still doesn't mean that their horses will like that surface....

I sincerely believe that pedigree is much more important but it is tricky to really figure out......

The surface will be a little different but if it's even close to TP's then it's going to be advantage Team France.

I'm actually hoping the public overbets them and have a good feeling that will be the case. Then comes the fun part of finding who'll beat them with very limited data.

[Pointg5]

Dartboard

or

Ask the girl that looks like she's had the most to drink...

Either way will be fine, but don't put any effort into it...

Sounds like an exotics paradise.
For those 10 centers and just combine away.

If they have them.

Originally Posted by pgardn

Sounds like an exotics paradise.
For those 10 centers and just combine away.

If they have them.

They do. $.50 picker 4's as well.

How people refuse to bet on this is beyond me. I thought this game was about challenges and finding value?

[tycharles01]

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the poly

[KonaNative]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the poly

Depends on your definition of Class. It takes a combination of speed and stamina to win on the Poly.

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

[Pedigree Ann]

I'm thinking GOOD works at Kee or TP would be a useful indicator. Especially if their works elsewhere aren't all that much. At least, that found me a 19/1 maiden winner a couple of weekends ago at TP. She looked a logical contender to me - I couldn't believe the price.

Originally Posted by oracle80

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

[2MinsToPost]

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.

You better not go to the bathroom again, that stuff smells too. You might as well just break down and die from constipation rather than suffer through a bad smell. Just like horses should run on dirt where they are more likely to break down rather than run on polytrack because it smells. There are plenty of good arguments against polytrack. The fact that it smells a little isn't one of them.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

Originally Posted by Round Pen

[/b]

No it does not I would love to have Just a $1 for every time that a trainer has told me man this one is training great over the track (dirt Track) then to turn around in the afternoon and run up the track.

Your obviously talking to worse trainers than me - no offense...but you have to know the crap trainers to decipher bad steam from the good steam from the good trainers......

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

Conventional wisdom of training?? Is that the "cheat as much as possible without being caught" angle that so many "great" trainers of today are enjoying???

I am sure you are aware of it, but just in case.... here is a nice piece of reading for you or anyone else who thinks that everything and everybody is on the up and up.

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/

Read the sections, Administration Hearings and Complaints/Accusations.

IMO, this is the real reason the people in control are leaning to Polytrack, and thats to hopefully reduce/eliminate the necessity for trainers to cheat just to get their horses healthy enough to be competitive.

This is also why Jeff Mullins said anyone who bets on horses is stupid... he knows exactly whats going on out the on the backside... He was trying to do everyone a favor.. instead everyone got pissed at him...

Handicapping Polytrack is just like handicapping anything else. With A City could have gotten lucky and won a race. Maybe that race could be ran 100x and With A City may never win again. Kind of like Volponi a few years back in the BCC. Upsets happen and longshots win from time to time. Just because it happens on PolyTrack doesnt mean that the surface is off form. Premium Tap and Perfect Drift ran great over the surface. In regards to Turfway, those horses are basically the bottom of the barrel so you never know what will happen with that group.

I think you will find that Keeneland will offer nice value and you will see the favorites win. If I can give any adive, I would stay away from the rail horses. I would play mid pack to outside posts and I would play speed from the outside. To me, the surface appears to be a little tiring down on the rail.

Also, when it comes to works, good works dont always equate to a good race. Also, I have talked to about 8 trainers at Keeneland and they all absolutely love the track. Should be a great meet. I also predict that handle will be up about 13% this year.