Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Was he ready to go in his debut race off of nothing but workouts?
He ran back to his huge debut race in sound defeat. Yet you still doubt he was ready to go?
What's wrong with Godolphin's numbers at Belmont? They look like this
2009: 5-for-24 (21%)
2008: 13-for-38 (34%)
2007: 8-for-32 (25%)
2006: 7-for-16 (44%)
2005: 5-for-17 (29%)
Are those supposed to be bad numbers suggesting they can't have a horse ready? When you consider how extremely cautious they are - they aren't exactly who you think of when it comes to starting short horses - or horses who need races.
Ricoriatoa was beaten just a neck in a fast N1X alw race in his prior start ... he was 4th by 11+ lengths against this so called "questionable group" of entry level allowance horses?
If this was a questionable entry level allowance group ... I'm absolutely dying to see what a solid entry level allowance group looks like.
Sorry you can't accept a simple little correction.
I remember talking to the owner of PeteCarol - a layoff horse he claimed for 80K two starts back - and he was all excited about betting him because he was outworking a good alw sprinter he also owns who runs high 80's .. when I looked at the field it was pretty obvious his horse was going to get smoked bad at a huge price. I guess I could have told him ... Wow, you got extremely lucky!! You landed in a questional field!!
The big question with most entry level alw races is 'why aren't about half the horses in this field entered in a 25K N2L claiming race instead?' With this allowance race .. the question was more like 'will this race produce a graded stakes winner or two?'
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I should have said one year regarding Godolphin. They were 0-7 with horses who wintered in Dubai at the 2009 Belmont spring-summer meet and went 1-13 at the whole stand. Included in those were losses by horses at 1/5, 4-1, 1-10, and 7/2. None went off more than 9-1. In fact, their operation was the butt of many jokes here and elsewhere during the summer meet, especially after Cocoa Beach lost at 1-10.
Ricoriatoa entered that race off a six race losing streak where he was beaten as the favorite three times on the inner track and was under 2-1 in each of those starts. The "fast" allowance race he exited was won by a horse who got beat by a city block in the restricted Mike Lee next time out.
Some of the main competition for Trappe Shot was either scratched (Endless Circle solely based on his trainer) or left (Top It) or ruined on the backstretch (Zio Tony). Those were the horses in addition to Tahitian Warrior. As far as Petecarrol, his trainer couldn't teach Lassie to bark at this meet, so perhaps next time will be the time.
Now, was this a particularly weak N1X by Belmont standards this meet? Absolutely not, we've hardly seen a number of strong allowance races at the meet. It was a good group but Trappe Shot's win hardly makes me think he's a shoo-in to dominate stakes company or become a top tier 3YO because he beat those horses.
And don't worry, I'm more than capable of taking a little correction. Now, if you had compared me to RHT...
NT
06-29-2010, 09:31 PM
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