6/12: Belmont; Churchill; Monmouth (Stakes; Multis)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: 42nd Ogden Phipps H. (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Life at Ten 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #3 Unrivaled Belle 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Funny Moon 5-2 3rd


7th: MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Fiscal Stimulus 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Baatesh 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Strictly Society 5-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Snickered 6-1 6th


8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Sounds Familiar 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Song for Pupcake 7-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Justinline 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1e Contessa entry 4-1 4th


9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Mind-bogglingly impossible race..

Most Likely: #3 Black Minotaur 5-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Onzain 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2e P. Ortiz entry 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Bishop of Nola 8-1 6th


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #9 Naughty You 8-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Parkinson Field 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Evenforever 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Lion Under Oath 20-1 WON ($23.40)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-8
8: 2-4-10
9: 2-3-4-7
10: 9-10

3x3x4x2 = $72



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Aspire 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Good Lord 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Spicer 3-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Dancing Roman 12-1 6th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 4.4d (P3, DD, Super)

Baby fillies including Pletcher's #2 Blue Orleans, a half sister to Pico Central, Asmussen's #8 Time Counts, half to Rated Fiesty, and AE #13 Mariastheboss, half to Peekskill..

Most Likely: #2 Blue Orleans 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #8 Time Counts 4-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Kathmanblu 12-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Dancing Compass 5-1 7th


6th:36th Fleur De Lis (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

For her 3rd start of the year, Rachel Alexandra finds herself in a similar spot to the March and April events that found her narrowly beaten by solid but undistinguished mares. Here she gives a significant 8 pounds to Jessica is Back, an experienced, hard-knocking Wolfson 6yo who utilizes the same style as the 2009 Horse of the Year. Added pressure can come from Avila's Made for Magic who returns to real dirt (9/3-2-3) and could sit off a possible duel between the top pair. She should win, but going 9 panels with uncertainty about how she is ridden, this is not nearly as easy an assignment for Rachel Alexandra as some are making out..

Most Likely: #4 Rachel Alexandra 2-5 WON ($2.20)
Next Best: #5 Jessica is Back 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Made for Magic 10-1 5th


7th: 35th Jefferson Cup (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Our Douglas 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Gleam of Hope 8-1 WON ($20.00)
Next Best: #3 Asphalt 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Don't Tell Kitten 15-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-5
5: 2-8
6: 2-4-5
7: 2-3-4-6-7-8

3x2x3x6 = 108 x .50 = $54


8th: 13th Northern Dancer (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Vow to Wager 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Colizeo 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Prince Will I Am 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Worldly 6-1 2nd


9th: 41st Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Like last week's Acorn at Belmont, 13 sophomore fillies with varying degrees of accomplishment. Completely wide open, and nature of turf racing makes this the toughest race of the day..

Most Likely: #5 Queen of the Creek 7-2 12th
Next Best: #10 Dynazapper 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Queen Hazel 50-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 It's Tea Time 9-2 4th


10th: 29th Stephen Foster H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Delightfully intriguing version of this increasingly anticipated early summer standard. Wide array of authentic stakes talent is sprinkled throughout this lineup, with perfectly constructed variety of pace preferences that seem to assure a fairly run race. Hard to endorse ML second choice Blame, who is 3-1 and widely outposted, and tough to ignore presence of Stephanie Beattie's honest No Advantage, 30-1 with Calvin Borel taking the call..

Best Value: #7 Honest Man 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Battle Plan 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Duke of Mischief 6-1 8th
Super Add: #8 No Advantage 30-1 11th


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m OFF THE TURF (Super, Super Hi-5)

3-1 ML favorite Carriage Trade was a $1.5 million Storm Cat Saratoga Yearling buy for Team Valor. She may live up to that price tag yet, but it's hard to believe a mile turf race was her original goal..

Most Likely: #13 Poplar Girl 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Fly Angel Fly 15-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Mega Dream 8-1 3rd


<$200 P6 Play:

6: 4
7: 2-3-8
8: 4-5
9: 5-10
10: 2-4-7-8
11: 10/SCR-13

1x3x2x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-5
9: 5-8-9-10
10: 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-11
11: 10/SCR-13

2x4x8x2 = 128 x .50 = $68



MONMOUTH PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: Skip Away, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Mighty Morris 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Cool Coal Man 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Gone Astray 9-5 3rd


6th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P5, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 The Defense Rests 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Morethanatale 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Six Gun City 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Dark Thunder 9-2 WON ($12.00)


7th: NJ-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Jack Taylor 5-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Dream Waltz 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Colonial Legacy 12-1 WON ($58.40)
Super Add: #10 Tiger Grr 15-1 10th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Hatheer 3-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Blushing Dixie 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Stormy Dixie 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #1e Moran entry 6-1 2nd


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 African Diamond 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Greatsilversaint 8-1 8th
Next Best: #10 SCR
Super Add: #2 SCR


10th: 3rd Monmouth (G3), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Dynamoor 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Blues Street 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Baletti 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Get Serious 6-1 WON ($16.00)


<$100 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-10
7: 1-8
8: 5-8-9
9: 1-5
10: 1-2-4-6-8

3x2x3x2x5 = 180 x .50 = $90


Good luck!
Steve

[tdtony]

hi steve

they took the 11th at churchill off the turf per there website.

[hockey2315]

Way to completely ruin the Pk4, guys.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S



MTH SCR/CHG'S



CD SCR/CHG'S

[pointman]

Victor Santiago with 3 wins in the last 3 at Belmont, 4 on the day. He really has been riding well lately and bringing in some nice prices. Need to keep an eye on him.