5/29-30 (BEL): Vagrancy (G2); NYB Stakes; Met (G1), Sands Pt. (G2)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I don't miss many live photo calls but, I blew that one.
I thought for certain the 6 won and was hoping the 2 (the winner) got the bob for place.

Me too. I bet the 6 to win fairly heavy and skipped away from the monitor counting my money. When I saw the 2 placed up top I could've thrown a baby off a skyscraper.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Me too. I bet the 6 to win fairly heavy and skipped away from the monitor counting my money. When I saw the 2 placed up top I could've thrown a baby off a skyscraper.

we need to talk

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

we need to talk

Don't be silly honey.

[philcski]

From Crist's blog...

--Saving the best for last: Quality Road. His Met Mile victory, where he turned back three challenges en route to a 1:33.11 mile off a 114-day layoff, stamped him as the best male racehorse in this country since Curlin retired. Next stop: possibly the Suburban July 3, or straight to the Whitney Aug. 7, then possibly the Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic.

His Met clocking equalled Langfuhr's from 1997 as the second fastest ever behind Honour and Glory's 1:32.81 in 1996. It's a little tougher to be as precise about a speed figure: The Belmont track was not particularly quick earlier in the day, and then there were four straight grass races before the Met, by which time the track seemed much quicker. If you gave the race the same variant as the earlier ones on the card, the Met would get a Beyer Speed Figure of 123, which would leave runners-up Musket Man, Tizway and Convocation with implausibly high career tops. Instead, the race has been given a preliminary BSF of 114.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by philcski

From Crist's blog...

--Saving the best for last: Quality Road. His Met Mile victory, where he turned back three challenges en route to a 1:33.11 mile off a 114-day layoff, stamped him as the best male racehorse in this country since Curlin retired. Next stop: possibly the Suburban July 3, or straight to the Whitney Aug. 7, then possibly the Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic.

His Met clocking equalled Langfuhr's from 1997 as the second fastest ever behind Honour and Glory's 1:32.81 in 1996. It's a little tougher to be as precise about a speed figure: The Belmont track was not particularly quick earlier in the day, and then there were four straight grass races before the Met, by which time the track seemed much quicker. If you gave the race the same variant as the earlier ones on the card, the Met would get a Beyer Speed Figure of 123, which would leave runners-up Musket Man, Tizway and Convocation with implausibly high career tops. Instead, the race has been given a preliminary BSF of 114.

isn't the rest of that sentence pretty important as well?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

isn't the rest of that sentence pretty important as well?

Yes, because it explains the rationale of lowering the figure. However, that wasn't the discussion point- it was what the number would have been if they didn't adjust it. If you read through the posts you'll see that I said they would take it down because of the margins.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yes, because it explains the rationale of lowering the figure. However, that wasn't the discussion point- it was what the number would have been if they didn't adjust it. If you read through the posts you'll see that I said they would take it down because of the margins.

While in the end you guessed correctly, it was for the wrong reason. Beyer doesn't use the standard one turn mile chart for races at Belmont. He has not for the whole meet. I'm pretty sure he didn't last year either but I don't remember 100%, so don't quote me on that. He adds about 8 points to the standard chart.

So, if using the regular one turn speed chart, the difference between Quality Road and Driven by Success should be about 12 points, not 16 or 17. But with the different chart in use for Belmont, the figure is actually about 20 points higher. Do you honestly believe the race figure should be 124? I know that I don't. Given that the Met was run in isolation from other dirt races, I think using the horses in the Met is much more accurate than using the other races on the card when you have to decide between the two.

To further befuddle people, the first race was split from the others as well, but I think this is a bad mistake by Hopkins/Beyer. The pace was very fast and the winner still went wire to wire. They gave the race a 77...poor work on that one in my opinion. It is probably a good approximation of the winner, but it makes the ones behind him look better than they actually ran by 10 or 11 points.