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#1
05-30-2010, 07:42 AM
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5/30: Belmont Park ($45k C/O)
Was pleased, and relieved, to open the Holiday Weekend with the best day of capping/wagering I've had in ages. Only a couple of tough to make winners held back an enormous afternoon, as Biancone's Whoopi Kitten (MTH 6th) and Galluscio's Pork Chop Sandra (BEL 7th) stymied the Shore's .50 P5 and Elmont late quad. The $300+ P4 to end the day in Jersey and $135 8th-10th P3 in NY went a long way towards profitability on the day, as did Pat Kelly's $18 'on tap' Best Value Spa City Fever in the BEL 8th. There were a number of nice hits during second half of the Oceanport card including $118, $130 and $62 P3's, and a complete sweep of the nightcap's top 4 'straight'.
P6 carryovers at Belmont ($45.5k) and Churchill ($54k) are remnants of the Saturday action, and I've looked at New York's, which is tricky. May get to the Monmouth action as well, but need to have an eye towards Monday's huge slate with ATR's broadcast coming to you live from Belmont. Note that Saturday's .50 P5 at MTH handled a bulbous $216k! Enjoy Day 2 of the Memorial Day Weekend racefest! BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 5th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #4 Refinery Fire 3-1 WON Next Best: #3 Miss Tequila 8-5 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Tropical Jetset 4-1 2nd Super Add: #5 Fiddlers Wildheart 5-1 6th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD) This is a much trickier race than it should be, and one of the events in the sequence that make this a challenging P6. Looking at it reasonably, all but the 6 & 7 'can win', but Mission Approved does own a pace edge and scratched from a richer MTH spot yesterday for this. Will be singled on many P6 plays, and can totally support that approach.. Whoa nellie... Now Mission Approved is a SCR! Most Likely: #3 SCR Next Best: #4 Xela 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Stevil 6-1 WON Super Add: #1 Keeping the Honor 3-1 2nd 7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super) This is one of the other races on the sched that provides serious intrigue, with horses like Shoptate and Be Bullish eligible to turf dash just fine, a vulnerable favorite in 2-1 Redefined, and three others coming off various freshenings. Tough call.. Best Value: #2 Be Bullish 9-2 6th Next Best: #5 Redefined 2-1 4th Exotics Use: #3 Dreamt 5-2 3rd Super Add: #7 Shoptate 10-1 5th 8th: 32nd Kingston-NYB, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) The venerable Banrock is back to try for a third straight win in this race. Not that he can't handle it, but one concern is extra firm turf as the 12x winner has always shown predilection for some cut in the ground. Note that Chad Brown has had 70 days to work with claimee Gimme Credit.. Most Likely: #5 Banrock 8-5 5th Best Value: #2 Gimme Credit 6-1 4th Next Best: #6 Uncle T Seven 10-1 2nd Super Add: #4 Cash'n in Dixie 12-1 7th 9th: 32nd Mount Vernon-NYB, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 You Go West Girl 5-2 3rd Best Value: #5 Stormy Relations 9-2 7th Next Best: #6 Chestoria 7-2 WON Super Add: #7 Akilina 3-1 4th 10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-T (Super) Most Likely: #1 Themanintheglass 5-2 6th Next Best: #7 Cash is Cohen 4-1 7th Exotics Use: #5 Sir John 4-1 5th Super Add: #6 Love of Life 30-1 3rd <$200 P6 Play: 5: 3-4 6: 1-2-4 7: 2-3-5-7 8: 2-5 9: 2-5 10: 1 2x3x4x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$50 P4 Play: 7: 2-3-5-7 8: 2-5 9: 2-5-6 10: 1-7 4x2x3x2 = $48 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-31-2010 at 07:13 AM. 
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#2
05-30-2010, 09:54 AM
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I'm either going to single Redefined or pass on the pick 4.
I'm tired of spreading in these type of races where the usual suspect has a 'vulnerable' favorite that wins by 5+ lengths.
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#3
05-30-2010, 10:26 AM
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BEL SCR/CHG'S
5TH 1 Estero Bay Early 6TH 1A Eagle Strike Early NO SUPERFECTA 3 Mission Approved Early 7TH 1A Good Card Early 8 I Ain't No Saint Early 8TH 9 Dr. D. F. C. Early 9TH 8 Big Brownie Early 10TH 3 Call the General Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
05-30-2010, 10:35 AM
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G/L!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
05-30-2010, 10:36 AM
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The key to a nice Pick 4 today is beating Banrock IMO. Steve pointed out that he prefers ground with a little give and both courses are super firm right now. NT
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#6
05-30-2010, 10:51 AM
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#7
05-30-2010, 11:05 AM
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Or are you suggesting that taking races off the turf last fall led somehow to the current condition of the turf? Because so far this meet, there's been a whopping total of 4 races taken off the turf. And I'm still puzzled... Even if 50% of races the last 10 years were taken off the turf, what possible correlation does it have to this spring and the current dry spell and the condition of the grass courses?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
05-30-2010, 11:12 AM
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I'm saying that prolonged non use makes for harder courses. If you take races off, in some case, a WEEK after it's rained, for an extended period of time, it follows that the course will get harder. Think about it: what's harder, a garden that you dig up every year or one that you never dig up? There's barely NO kickback on the turf these days. It's sad, really.
This really is neither here nor there, as we all adapt to the way the courses are playing. However, the idea, for me, is to play the most fair venues possible. I realize much is made about takeout, field size and the quality of horses but for one playing multiple tracks the idea is to do as little work as possible for the best overall results. Having to watch a ton of races because of a BIAS is not exactly the most productive path.
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#9
05-30-2010, 01:26 PM
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#10
05-30-2010, 01:46 PM
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The MTH P5 looks very treacherous... May throw in a fun play.
6th: 4-6-8-9 7th: 1-4-8 8th: 12-13 9th: 3-6 10th: 1-3-8-9 4x3x2x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96 MTH P5 SCR'S 6 Craving Chocolate scratched Emotional Lady scratched 7 Indian Legend scratched 8 Edwards scratched Run to Grand Ave. scratched Ponzi Scheme jockey changed to Valdivia J Jr 9 C C's Pal scratched Ultimate Class scratched 10 Manitoba Miss scratched
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-30-2010 at 04:02 PM.
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#11
05-30-2010, 02:31 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#13
05-30-2010, 02:53 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#14
05-30-2010, 03:54 PM
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we are bringing it home!!
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#15
05-30-2010, 04:07 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#16
05-30-2010, 04:13 PM
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Just Playin Around 1:07.10 and Minnie Punt 1:39.73, the Belmont turf is roasted.
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#17
05-30-2010, 04:20 PM
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Another BLOWN RIDE by the EUNUCH Prado
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#18
05-30-2010, 04:23 PM
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 @ Ramon fighting his horse when they're going :51 to the half.
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#19
05-30-2010, 04:35 PM
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Linear Mode
