Belmont Entries for 5/29.... Very Poor

[NoLuvForPletch]

My opinion, as small amount of respect that it might get, is that they are running an awful lot of maiden races these days at BEL.

Last Sunday's card was particularly disturbing, 5 Maiden races (3msw, 2 mcl), 4 claiming races at 25k and down, and an allowance race. That's a Sunday card in May in NY?

Overall in May of the 160 races run, a total of 60 have been Maiden races (30 msw, 30 mcl). 37%

But in the past week or so the 19th-26th the numbers increase to 43% and instead of a 50-50 split btwn msw and mcl we've had 8 msw and 16 mcl, including 5 maiden claiming races on yesterday's card.

While some of these races might make for good betting races (if you like throwing darts), the quality is just not there.

[Travis Stone]

This is not just a Belmont trend, this is an industry trend. The lone exception is a one-year expcetion, and that's Monmouth (but they're not all allowance races either).

We are right in the middle of a changing shift in the overall quality of horse flesh this sport is producing.

Quantity (at the expense of quality) is becoming a big problem, especially when you consider breeder awards etc.

It makes more sense to breed 10 mares to a $2,000 stud than one mare to a $20,000 stud. The 10 mares, when factoring in rewards, have a greater chance of positive return than the one.

This weekend I'll see horses run for more money as Louisiana-breds than non-La-breds which are running for less but are likely faster.

The result of all this is cheaper races, which we have to get used to for the time being, from the top to the bottom.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

My opinion, as small amount of respect that it might get, is that they are running an awful lot of maiden races these days at BEL.

Last Sunday's card was particularly disturbing, 5 Maiden races (3msw, 2 mcl), 4 claiming races at 25k and down, and an allowance race. That's a Sunday card in May in NY?

Overall in May of the 160 races run, a total of 60 have been Maiden races (30 msw, 30 mcl). 37%

But in the past week or so the 19th-26th the numbers increase to 43% and instead of a 50-50 split btwn msw and mcl we've had 8 msw and 16 mcl, including 5 maiden claiming races on yesterday's card.

While some of these races might make for good betting races (if you like throwing darts), the quality is just not there.

It's not just that they're running a lot of maiden races or the same horses seem to be running all the time. It's more about the lack of quality in these maiden fields. By this I mean, for the most part, that there are some very bad horses running. I bet a lot of cheap tracks (relatively) so it's not about quality for me. What it's about is whether there are horses in a given race that have ABILITY. Too often at NYRA, presently, these maiden fields resemble the maiden fields of the AQU INNER --- there's no form to go by (other than NUMBERS --- for horses that are getting gapped.) It's about competition within races not about field size or quality of field.

Moreover, NYRA isn't the only track that has a limited pool of horses to deal with. So, it's common to see the same horses over and over. Yet other racing secretaries seem to find ways of keeping these races both interesting and competitive, and, more importantly, BETABLE. What they do is switch up on the distances. So, for example, over at CRC, you have the same plugs squaring off every 7-10 days but one week they're sprinting over 5.5F, next time they're going 7F, then 6F, then 6.5F or any combination of these. Campo still thinks he's under AQU INNER constraints and that 'SPRINT' means '6F'.

Most of the races presently at NYRA are just not betable.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It's not just that they're running a lot of maiden races or the same horses seem to be running all the time. It's more about the lack of quality in these maiden fields. By this I mean, for the most part, that there are some very bad horses running. I bet a lot of cheap tracks (relatively) so it's not about quality for me. What it's about is whether there are horses in a given race that have ABILITY. Too often at NYRA, presently, these maiden fields resemble the maiden fields of the AQU INNER --- there's no form to go by (other than NUMBERS --- for horses that are getting gapped.) It's about competition within races not about field size or quality of field.

Moreover, NYRA isn't the only track that has a limited pool of horses to deal with. So, it's common to see the same horses over and over. Yet other racing secretaries seem to find ways of keeping these races both interesting and competitive, and, more importantly, BETABLE. What they do is switch up on the distances. So, for example, over at CRC, you have the same plugs squaring off every 7-10 days but one week they're sprinting over 5.5F, next time they're going 7F, then 6F, then 6.5F or any combination of these. Campo still thinks he's under AQU INNER constraints and that 'SPRINT' means '6F'.

Most of the races presently at NYRA are just not betable.

1000% agree with this... not every race is the Kentucky Derby, nor can it be, and it doesn't have to be. A balanced field of 10 $20k Claimers is very bettable and interesting to me. They aren't running these type of races anymore. They've been replaced by N2L's going 6F on the turf, which quite frankly are not interesting to me or most others.

('bettable' has two 't's' though i think)

[jms62]

Originally Posted by philcski

1000% agree with this...

('bettable' has two 't's' though)

Ditto. This whole debate is like ground hog day.

1. We (the consumer) complain.
2. We get blasted and hear a hundred excuses (many are valid)
3. No thinking out of the box to change things by management.
4. The whole cycle starts again.

If MP is a one hit wonder so be it, at least we enjoy this year.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by jms62

Ditto. This whole debate is like ground hog day.

1. We (the consumer) complain.
2. We get blasted and hear a hundred excuses (many are valid)
3. No thinking out of the box to change things by management.
4. The whole cycle starts again.

If MP is a one hit wonder so be it, at least we enjoy this year.

I'll preface my comments by saying that the NYRA racing office isn't perfect, but to state that they have not "changed things" just plain ignores reality. All you would have to do is compare the condition book in NY today to the one that was used when Mike Lakow was the racing secretary. There is far more variety from a condition perspective (I do believe that TFM is correct on the lack of diversity in distances, but that may be the fault of horsemen as much as it is the racing office). For better or worse, and some would say for the worse, this has allowed horses to remain competitive here (albeit in relatively cheap races) longer than they would have in the past. For example, when Lakow was the racing secretary, if you have a 4YO break its maiden for a tag, there was no place for that horse to run in NY after the maiden win.

I do think they have overdone it with the conditioned claimers; an unintended consequence is that it has gutted what used to be (attractive) claiming races restricted to 3YOs, but the problems invariably stem from the political issues here in NY. When the money is there and guys have to run (as it was in Saratoga 2-3 years ago), everyone proclaimed the racing office as genuises. In reality, they benefited from circumstances then; harmed by circumstances now, they aren't idiots either.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'll preface my comments by saying that the NYRA racing office isn't perfect, but to state that they have not "changed things" just plain ignores reality. All you would have to do is compare the condition book in NY today to the one that was used when Mike Lakow was the racing secretary. There is far more variety from a condition perspective (I do believe that TFM is correct on the lack of diversity in distances, but that may be the fault of horsemen as much as it is the racing office). For better or worse, and some would say for the worse, this has allowed horses to remain competitive here (albeit in relatively cheap races) longer than they would have in the past. For example, when Lakow was the racing secretary, if you have a 4YO break its maiden for a tag, there was no place for that horse to run in NY after the maiden win.

I do think they have overdone it with the conditioned claimers; an unintended consequence is that it has gutted what used to be (attractive) claiming races restricted to 3YOs, but the problems invariably stem from the political issues here in NY. When the money is there and guys have to run (as it was in Saratoga 2-3 years ago), everyone proclaimed the racing office as genuises. In reality, they benefited from circumstances then; harmed by circumstances now, they aren't idiots either.

Pixie thanks for your well thought out response. Regardless we face a holiday Sat with 3 maiden claimers and that just blows...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'll preface my comments by saying that the NYRA racing office isn't perfect, but to state that they have not "changed things" just plain ignores reality. All you would have to do is compare the condition book in NY today to the one that was used when Mike Lakow was the racing secretary. There is far more variety from a condition perspective (I do believe that TFM is correct on the lack of diversity in distances, but that may be the fault of horsemen as much as it is the racing office). For better or worse, and some would say for the worse, this has allowed horses to remain competitive here (albeit in relatively cheap races) longer than they would have in the past. For example, when Lakow was the racing secretary, if you have a 4YO break its maiden for a tag, there was no place for that horse to run in NY after the maiden win.

I do think they have overdone it with the conditioned claimers; an unintended consequence is that it has gutted what used to be (attractive) claiming races restricted to 3YOs, but the problems invariably stem from the political issues here in NY. When the money is there and guys have to run (as it was in Saratoga 2-3 years ago), everyone proclaimed the racing office as genuises. In reality, they benefited from circumstances then; harmed by circumstances now, they aren't idiots either.

So what? If you aren't good enough... see ya. This is supposed to be the PREMIER venue. Who says just because you make it through $30K MCL at BEL means you are entitled to run there again? Philadelphia, Delaware, Pimlico, Finger Lakes, Penn National, and even Suffolk would be happy to accept your entry for $20K N2L.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by philcski

So what? If you aren't good enough... see ya. This is supposed to be the PREMIER venue. Who says just because you make it through $30K MCL at BEL means you are entitled to run there again? Philadelphia, Delaware, Pimlico, Finger Lakes, Penn National, and even Suffolk would be happy to accept your entry for $20K N2L.

While I think that there are entirely too many conditioned claimers offered everywhere, Belmont is hardly Premier enough to not offer owners of those types of horses an opportunity to win a winners race in NY. In theory the elimination of those races would increase the quality of horse running in NY. In reality it would lead to more NYB maiden 15 races and a further exodus of horses out of NY.

The fact is that there is already not a whole lot of incentive for an owner of non NYbreds to stable them in NY. Decreasing opportunities at this juncture makes a bad situation worse.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It's not just that they're running a lot of maiden races or the same horses seem to be running all the time. It's more about the lack of quality in these maiden fields. By this I mean, for the most part, that there are some very bad horses running. I bet a lot of cheap tracks (relatively) so it's not about quality for me. What it's about is whether there are horses in a given race that have ABILITY. Too often at NYRA, presently, these maiden fields resemble the maiden fields of the AQU INNER --- there's no form to go by (other than NUMBERS --- for horses that are getting gapped.) It's about competition within races not about field size or quality of field.

Most of the races presently at NYRA are just not betable.

I don't ever recall a BEL meeting where they used so many "extras" to fill cards. It appears that unlike other seasons they are relying on trainers like Randi Persaud, Mike Miceli, Naipaul Chatterpaul and Heriberto Cedano to complete the day's cards. Looking at the "Index to Trainers" in the DRF today, I see more typical AQU INR trainers than Belmont trainers, even in the grass races.

[Cannon Shell]

The racing landscape has changed both nationally and on the East coast, mostly due to the influx of slot money which turned morbid, D level tracks like Delaware and Philadelphia Park into B level tracks. 25 years ago NYRA clearly was not only the top racing circuit but the biggest purses and strongest stakes program as well. IMO the tracks in 1985 were ranked approximately like this in terms of strength of horses and purse levels:

A. Belmont/Saratoga
B. Aqueduct
C. Monmouth/Laurel/Pimlico
C-.Garden State
D. Philly/Delaware/Suffolk/Atlantic City
E. Penn National/Charlestown

There was no Presque Isle or Colonial
Arlington Park and Chuchill Downs were C level tracks with virtually no crossover of horseman with the East Coast Tracks. LA tracks were D level except for the FG which was an C level. Southern CA racing was very strong but outside of Lukas there was almost no crossover in trainers or horses.

The mid Atlantic tracks ran turf sprints but virtually no one else did. NY breds had a complimentary role in the makeup of cards. In NY there was a clearly defined structure of claiming horses from 14000 up to 100000 claimers with 20/35/50/75 in between and no conditional claimers. Guys regularly ran horses back in 2 weeks. There were very few trainers that had divisions at more than one track. Off season training at Saratoga was fairly limited. Statebred programs outside of NY had very little to offer.

Think about how this has all changed.

As the lower ranked tracks purse structures were strengthened, the allure of racing in NY waned. As those other tracks rose in stature, NYRA was forced to adapt some of the cheaper conditions that those other tracks were offering. 25 years ago you may not have shipped a $30000 nw2 lifetime horse to Philly after breaking your maiden because the purse there was simply not attractive enough to risk the wrath of Lenny Hale. You simply found your level at the NYRA track against open claimers and ran there, usually for a significantly higher purse, even if the competition was stronger. However as the conditioned claiming purses rose, the crap was worth taking.

Then add in the "super trainer" factor where the concentration of horsepower has funneled virtually all the best bred horses to a handful of trainers. They now train for owners that would have been considered rivals of sorts, yet now they are all on the "same team" and if another horse in the trainers stable is deemed superior to yours, off to Delaware they go. Of course not all owners fall for this trap but often they are the ones who are a little more attuned to the finances of their stable and see the value in racing at circuits other than NYRA. In a lot of cases they are competing for superior purses against inferior horses often at day rates/vet expenses/etc. far lower than what they pay in NY.

I haven't even factored in the rise of the KY tracks in the 90's which siphoned off many good horses that previously would have been sent to NY.

NYRA has made a lot of missteps over the years in regards to it's racing program. Relaxing the rules regarding the number of horses on the grounds has created the super trainer who has absolutely hurt the overall quality of racing in NY. Adding too many different class levels especially conditioned claiming races. Depending too much on NY breds that often make up the bulk of the card on a lot of days. Way too many turf sprints. But I cant say that the people making the calls on those issues could have envisioned the current scenario now in place. And these things happened over the watch of several different hierarchies as well.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The racing landscape has changed both nationally and on the East coast, mostly due to the influx of slot money which turned morbid, D level tracks like Delaware and Philadelphia Park into B level tracks. 25 years ago NYRA clearly was not only the top racing circuit but the biggest purses and strongest stakes program as well. IMO the tracks in 1985 were ranked approximately like this in terms of strength of horses and purse levels:

A. Belmont/Saratoga
B. Aqueduct
C. Monmouth/Laurel/Pimlico
C-.Garden State
D. Philly/Delaware/Suffolk/Atlantic City
E. Penn National/Charlestown

There was no Presque Isle or Colonial
Arlington Park and Chuchill Downs were C level tracks with virtually no crossover of horseman with the East Coast Tracks. LA tracks were D level except for the FG which was an C level. Southern CA racing was very strong but outside of Lukas there was almost no crossover in trainers or horses.

The mid Atlantic tracks ran turf sprints but virtually no one else did. NY breds had a complimentary role in the makeup of cards. In NY there was a clearly defined structure of claiming horses from 14000 up to 100000 claimers with 20/35/50/75 in between and no conditional claimers. Guys regularly ran horses back in 2 weeks. There were very few trainers that had divisions at more than one track. Off season training at Saratoga was fairly limited. Statebred programs outside of NY had very little to offer.

Think about how this has all changed.

As the lower ranked tracks purse structures were strengthened, the allure of racing in NY waned. As those other tracks rose in stature, NYRA was forced to adapt some of the cheaper conditions that those other tracks were offering. 25 years ago you may not have shipped a $30000 nw2 lifetime horse to Philly after breaking your maiden because the purse there was simply not attractive enough to risk the wrath of Lenny Hale. You simply found your level at the NYRA track against open claimers and ran there, usually for a significantly higher purse, even if the competition was stronger. However as the conditioned claiming purses rose, the crap was worth taking.

Then add in the "super trainer" factor where the concentration of horsepower has funneled virtually all the best bred horses to a handful of trainers. They now train for owners that would have been considered rivals of sorts, yet now they are all on the "same team" and if another horse in the trainers stable is deemed superior to yours, off to Delaware they go. Of course not all owners fall for this trap but often they are the ones who are a little more attuned to the finances of their stable and see the value in racing at circuits other than NYRA. In a lot of cases they are competing for superior purses against inferior horses often at day rates/vet expenses/etc. far lower than what they pay in NY.

I haven't even factored in the rise of the KY tracks in the 90's which siphoned off many good horses that previously would have been sent to NY.

NYRA has made a lot of missteps over the years in regards to it's racing program. Relaxing the rules regarding the number of horses on the grounds has created the super trainer who has absolutely hurt the overall quality of racing in NY. Adding too many different class levels especially conditioned claiming races. Depending too much on NY breds that often make up the bulk of the card on a lot of days. Way too many turf sprints. But I cant say that the people making the calls on those issues could have envisioned the current scenario now in place. And these things happened over the watch of several different hierarchies as well.

You can add Woodbine to this list, with the dollar virtually at par, where would you like to race. On today's card at Woodbine you have 2 Mdn Sp Wt races carded with purses at almost 69K, compared to the 37K at Belmont that is a difference of roughly 30K. No brainer I would say...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

You can add Woodbine to this list, with the dollar virtually at par, where would you like to race. On today's card at Woodbine you have 2 Mdn Sp Wt races carded with purses at almost 69K, compared to the 37K at Belmont that is a difference of roughly 30K. No brainer I would say...

Full, quality, fields, high purses, and TRAKUS. When NYRA grows up, they might be WO.

[Alan07]

Six scratches in the 1st today at Belmont (5/28)