5/21: Belmont Park ($105k C/O)

[Kasept]

Funny how you could see the Belmont carryover slipping away Thursday starting with headscratching win by Eldaafer in the 5th ahead of Kindergaerden Kid in the 6th. While some tickets might have had one or the other on them, it would have been improbable that many had both. And when Tim Ice sent 10-1 Gangbuster, a solid synthetic performer, to an inner turf win in the 8th, the double carryover was assured.

What is always fascinating about the dynamics of the P6 is how Thursday, the sequence in New York looked very plausable and approachable and proved impossible, while the Hollywood skien looked very tricky and basically went chalky with just one winner of more than 5-1. Of course part of Thursday's challenge in Elmont was made much more daunting with the scratch of The Cuff Shooter from the nightcap. And despite finding a successful single of Spacy Tracy in the 7th, I was still only able to get 2 of the winners on the ducat. Friday's Belmont sextet looks well worth trying though...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Flaming Punch 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Goodgollymissdolly 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Illegal Search 5-2 5th


2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Great Cliff 2-1WON
Next Best: #6 Amelia the Cat 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Florida Girl 9-2 2nd


3rd: NYB-CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Next Day 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Bridge to Nowhere 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Nolite Timere 8-1 3rd


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Guiseppina 9-2 7th
Next Best: #9 Golden Grove 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Morningsideheights 6-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Mordecai Jones 5-1 5th


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Remittance 6-5 WON
Next Best: #7 Grand Piano Man 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Royal Lord 12-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1
3: 2-5-7
4: 3-4-5-8-9
5: 4-6-7

1x3x5x3 = $45 $1 Pick 4 (1-1/4/6/7-5-6/10) 4 Correct Paid $53.00


6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Al Muhtasib 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 High Stakes Player 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Loquacious 5-2 2nd


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sterling Silver 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Maid of Flowers 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Pin Turn 12-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Mesa Fresca 10-1 WON


8th: C/CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

NOTE: #11 Matt's a Giant and #1a Fujita BOTH DREW IN...

Most Likely: #2 American Cruiser 8-5 WON
Best Value: #9 Straight Romance 15-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Matt's a Giant 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Can't Refuse 15-1 8th


9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

NOTE: #11 Stormy Dixie DID DRAW IN...

Most Likely: #11 Stormy Dixie 3-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Genuine Charm 6-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Lucida 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Hill 5-1 5th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-8-9
5: 6-7
6: 1-4-8
7: 2-6-9
8: 2
9: 11

4x2x3x3x1x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-8
7: 2-6-8-9
8: 2
9: 6-11

3x4x1x2 = $24 x $2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[jms62]

We very well may have a Triple Carry into the weekend.. This card is a head scratcher. Turf Sprints , Maiden claiming Turf, MSW turf..

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by jms62

We very well may have a Triple Carry into the weekend.. This card is a head scratcher. Turf Sprints , Maiden claiming Turf, MSW turf..

Actually if you dig into it a little bit it's very cut and dry in my opinion. The first leg is a bit tricky with the favorite drawing poorly on the outside. I'm expecting George Weaver's horse to run a vastly improved race. The 2nd leg is a two horse race. I love the 4 in Race 6 then Sterling Silver and American Cruiser are singles for me. The 9th is very difficult and it's tough to garner a strong opinion.

I'd rate the chances of it carrying again as unlikely, but of course anything can happen.

NT

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S


3RD:

1 We're Going Mobile Early NO TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA
4 Game Token Early


4TH:

6 Miss Palm Kat Early
10 Runaway Secret Early
11 Deonzion Early
12 Air Mail Early


5TH:

1A Single Malt Early
2B Sallymasso Early
10 Long Jump Early


6TH:

1A Jadal Early
5 Con the Cat Early
6 Known Gambler Early


7TH:

5 Wicked Ravnina Early
11 Flawless Early


8TH:

1 (poe) Port Royal Early
2B O'Kid Early
3 Khan of Khans Early


9TH:

1A Fantasma Early
4 La Cloche Early
12 Pelican Lake Early

[jefff777]

hi, nice to see you picked Royal Lord in the 5th. He is one of my partnership horses. He bounces back quickly, and if Channing can keep him close to the pace and not drop to last, and the pace is quick, he may close up for a piece. I do know our trainer has been putting some extra effort in getting him to break better out of the gate, so we'll see!!

jeff.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jefff777

hi, nice to see you picked Royal Lord in the 5th. He is one of my partnership horses. He bounces back quickly, and if Channing can keep him close to the pace and not drop to last, and the pace is quick, he may close up for a piece. I do know our trainer has been putting some extra effort in getting him to break better out of the gate, so we'll see!!

jeff.

Jeff,

That's so great.. Best of luck today! Royal Lord seems poised for a good effort.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

BEL #4 $2 Pick-6 3,4,5,​WT,6,​WT,1,4,​WT,2,3,8,​WT,2,6,​WT,11 none $ 72.00 - -
BEL #6 $1 Pick-4 1,4,8,​WT,2,3,8,10,​WT,2,6,​WT,7,9,11 none $ 72.00 - -

my cheap shot gl hooves

[FATPIANO]

1. 7
2. 1 2 6
3. 1
4. 2 9
5. 1 2
6. 7 11

[FATPIANO]

That hurt....

[ateamstupid]

Belmont Race 6
$1 PK4 1,3,4,7 / 1,2,6,8,9 / 2,6 / 11
$3 PK4 1,4 / 2,9 / 2 / 11
$52
GL

[NTamm1215]

You have to love races like this where Shug McGaughey horses are entered and create so much residual value. Boisterous should be nowhere near 3-1.

NT

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You have to love races like this where Shug McGaughey horses are entered and create so much residual value. Boisterous should be nowhere near 3-1.

NT

Boisterous or no, I could never have bet Hunter's Bay at 9-2. Sigh.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Boisterous or no, I could never have bet Hunter's Bay at 9-2. Sigh.

Me either, I didn't like him at all. Todd's stuff is really, really good right now.

NT

[the_fat_man]

And Al Muhasib should've been 2:1? I mean, Dominguez and all. And the ****er, who quit like a dog going 6F is trying to close going a route? Right...............

That's some vintage Kiaran ****.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

fn hunters bay..burp....

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

And Al Muhasib should've been 2:1? I mean, Dominguez and all. And the ****er, who quit like a dog going 6F is trying to close going a route? Right...............

That's some vintage Kiaran ****.

I actually thought Loquacious should have been around 4/5 there and was obviously not expecting Hunter's Bay to do what he did.

Boisterous being 4-1 is a product of Shug, the Phipps silks, good works, and a sexy pedigree. That horse had been dreadful in his prior two starts and with all due respect to the local crowd, the Lloydobler MSW on Wood day was nowhere near the calibe rof MSW that today's race was.

NT

[the_fat_man]

While we're on the topic of the Juicer Kiaran:

the 2 is clearly the horse to beat in the 7th but I think the 10 has good shot --- and he's a price. The winner last out sat a perfect trip and even though the race pretty much collapsed, this guy ran ok --- and he wasn't exactly straight in the lane. 14:1, however, maybe he didn't get the GOOD elixir.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the 3 is going to run big march

[the_fat_man]

WOW

after a BRUTAL 2 weeks in terms of photo finishes, I finally got one, at CRC.

[CSC]

Wow American Cruiser just went up a point to 2/5, I think this is a go. Seriously if this horse doesn't win Anthony must have mixed up the feed. I think this will be his 4 straight win in 3 days or something close to that.