The Elusive Triple Crown

[dean smith]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Let's face it, the chances for a Triple Crown in the modern era of horse racing is evolving into a bigger long shot than the Mine That Bird's D'atara's, and Giacomo's of their sport.

Even if Super Saver would have won today, do you really think he would have had a realistic chance against a well rested Ice Box among others in the Belmont? While I didn't bet Lookin AT Lucky, on paper he was the talent of the Preakness and that talent prevailed.

I know some of the older folks on here think that any comparisons of the past few years' horses don't stack up to Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed. I have tons of respect for those three and all the others that achieved the Triple Crown.

It's been 32 years since we have had a Triple Crown Winner. There is no reason to think another one will happen in the next 32 years. Maybe Smarty Jones and Big Brown really were the Superhorses of this changing era.

Respectfully, don't you think this kind of thinking might just be a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointment of another Triple Crown try-less Belmont? I mean, in the less than ten years that I've been following the sport, there have been, what, four TC chances? Three of them were competitive in the third leg (Smarty Jones was a real close call), and the fourth (Big Brown) was a mortal lock in the eyes of many people with recognized opinions. Maybe I'm too green to know any better, but I don't see how it's not going to happen eventually -- and probably sooner rather than later.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by dean smith

Respectfully, don't you think this kind of thinking might just be a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointment of another Triple Crown try-less Belmont? I mean, in the less than ten years that I've been following the sport, there have been, what, four TC chances? Three of them were competitive in the third leg (Smarty Jones was a real close call), and the fourth was a mortal lock in the eyes of many people with recognized opinions. Maybe I'm too green to know any better, but I don't see how it's not going to happen eventually -- and probably sooner rather than later.

I remember being a great doubter of Seattle Slew in 1977.

33 years ago. A fricking "one third of a century."

I attended his Preakness and his Belmont. Very happy I did.

I remember well that Secretariat's 1973 campaign was always discussed with mention of Citation.



Some nice horse will again win The Triple Crown one day.

I just hope I have the right angle wagered along the way.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

I just hope I have the right angle wagered along the way.

[SilverRP]

Until the trainers train their horses for the TP, there will not be one. 4-6 weeks between races leading up to the TP is not going to help any Kentucky Derby winner's chances. Basically the horses have been sissified, yet we expect them to run a 1 1/4, 1 3/16, and a 1 1/2 in 5 weeks.

[PeteMugg]

I can see it happening. One mediocre crop after another, it wouldn't even have to be a super horse, just one that can catch a few breaks. Then we'll be discussing how it's the worst Triple Crown winner in history.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by PeteMugg

I can see it happening. One mediocre crop after another, it wouldn't even have to be a super horse, just one that can catch a few breaks. Then we'll be discussing how it's the worst Triple Crown winner in history.

lol.. Isn't that the truth!

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by SilverRP

Until the trainers train their horses for the TP, there will not be one. 4-6 weeks between races leading up to the TP is not going to help any Kentucky Derby winner's chances. Basically the horses have been sissified, yet we expect them to run a 1 1/4, 1 3/16, and a 1 1/2 in 5 weeks.

What he said. You need a fit horse like Alex (who trained twice a day, if you recall) to run well in all three.

[slotdirt]

For my money, Afleet Alex is the closest we've had to a Triple Crown winner since 1978 - and that includes Smarty Jones.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

What he said. You need a fit horse like Alex (who trained twice a day, if you recall) to run well in all three.

That is ridiclous

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SilverRP

Until the trainers train their horses for the TP, there will not be one. 4-6 weeks between races leading up to the TP is not going to help any Kentucky Derby winner's chances. Basically the horses have been sissified, yet we expect them to run a 1 1/4, 1 3/16, and a 1 1/2 in 5 weeks.

Again did you miss the Silver Charm and Real Quiet TC trys? We almost had 2 and everyone would have been talking about it being too easy to win. There have been plenty of horses that have had legit chances that just missed.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by dean smith

Respectfully, don't you think this kind of thinking might just be a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointment of another Triple Crown try-less Belmont? I mean, in the less than ten years that I've been following the sport, there have been, what, four TC chances? Three of them were competitive in the third leg (Smarty Jones was a real close call), and the fourth (Big Brown) was a mortal lock in the eyes of many people with recognized opinions. Maybe I'm too green to know any better, but I don't see how it's not going to happen eventually -- and probably sooner rather than later.

I don't know, maybe you're right. I just feel there is more of a reason as to why it won't happen as opposed to anytime it will. Here's just a few.

1. A bad post position (Lookin At Lucky @KD)
2. A horse that just isn't feeling right on race day (since horses can't talk...)
3. A quarter crack (Big Brown)
4. A horse more bred for distance like a Birdstone (Birdstone)
5. Weather conditions (Super Saver)
6. A rested and fresh horse (Rags To Riches, maybe this year Ice Box)