Zenyatta v. Rail Trip??

cmorioles · #1 05-10-2010, 08:32 AM

Back to the topic, are people really excited about Rail Trip? The same Rail Trip that won against stiffs while tracking a pace similar to those set in two earlier maiden claiming races on the card?

CSC · #2 05-10-2010, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Back to the topic, are people really excited about Rail Trip? The same Rail Trip that won against stiffs while tracking a pace similar to those set in two earlier maiden claiming races on the card?

Add on Ellis is usually great off long layoffs.

fpsoxfan · #3 05-10-2010, 10:10 AM

Wow..just got through this thread. Could be a top-5.

blackthroatedwind · #4 05-10-2010, 10:57 AM

I found it hilarious.

the_fat_man · #5 05-10-2010, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Back to the topic, are people really excited about Rail Trip? The same Rail Trip that won against stiffs while tracking a pace similar to those set in two earlier maiden claiming races on the card?

Consider the following: with THIS jock, Rail Trip can get that 'trip' EVERY time. This is the trip he got when he went 10F --- distance challenged that he is.

Which means that, if ridden correctly, he can basically control any race. More precisely, he can keep a race from collapsing by not moving too soon and forcing the off the pacers to do all their own running. This assumes, of course, that it'll be a reasonably small field. In a large(r) field, it's almost guaranteed that a couple of idiots will move too soon and collapse the race. This, btw, was the trip that RA could've gotten in the BC.

I certainly don't think that RT can beat Z; especially at 10F. Going shorter, however, and in a small field, with a perfect ride, he'd be a challenge.

cmorioles · #6 05-10-2010, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Consider the following: with THIS jock, Rail Trip can get that 'trip' EVERY time. This is the trip he got when he went 10F --- distance challenged that he is.

Which means that, if ridden correctly, he can basically control any race. More precisely, he can keep a race from collapsing by not moving too soon and forcing the off the pacers to do all their own running. This assumes, of course, that it'll be a reasonably small field. In a large(r) field, it's almost guaranteed that a couple of idiots will move too soon and collapse the race. This, btw, was the trip that RA could've gotten in the BC.

I certainly don't think that RT can beat Z; especially at 10F. Going shorter, however, and in a small field, with a perfect ride, he'd be a challenge.

I don't see how he can get that trip if there is other decent speed in the race. Exactly once has he been rated off the pace and farther back than second, and while he ran ok he still lost to Einstein and Richard's Kid. He is not going to get that slow pace while still sitting second in a G1 race.

He has shown in the past to be able to run faster early and still run a good race. My only point is the "great comeback" was nothing more than a workout. He only ran for the last 1/4 or so.

parsixfarms · #7 05-10-2010, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

He has shown in the past to be able to run faster early and still run a good race. My only point is the "great comeback" was nothing more than a workout. He only ran for the last 1/4 or so.

Not to resurrect an old discussion (Eskendereya's Wood), but isn't this why Rail Trip's race was pretty impressive on Saturday. Despite nearly identical fractions, his final running time was over three seconds faster than the other 8.5F races on the card, and on a (synthetic) surface that often compresses margins of victory, he drew off to win by over three lengths while in hand.

Here's a horse that has run triple-digit Beyers on a half-dozen occasions, certainly far more than any of the females that Zenyatta has been beating up on. If he's going to get 10F, it's probably at Hollywood Park (as he did last year). And while we must be careful of trainer-speak, maybe this horse is improved as a 5YO.

cmorioles · #8 05-10-2010, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Not to resurrect an old discussion (Eskendereya's Wood), but isn't this why Rail Trip's race was pretty impressive on Saturday. Despite nearly identical fractions, his final running time was over three seconds faster than the other 8.5F races on the card, and on a (synthetic) surface that often compresses margins of victory, he drew off to win by over three lengths while in hand.

Here's a horse that has run triple-digit Beyers on a half-dozen occasions, certainly far more than any of the females that Zenyatta has been beating up on. If he's going to get 10F, it's probably at Hollywood Park (as he did last year). And while we must be careful of trainer-speak, maybe this horse is improved as a 5YO.

Under no circumstances would I consider a horse sitting behind an overmatched foe in very slow time then flying home late impressive. This is especially true when said horse has never shown the ability to do this from farther back than second in his entire career.

Again, I'm not knocking the horse, it was a workout, nothing more. I would think he will have trouble being ready for the HGC off this effort alone.

the_fat_man · #9 05-10-2010, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Under no circumstances would I consider a horse sitting behind an overmatched foe in very slow time then flying home late impressive. This is especially true when said horse has never shown the ability to do this from farther back than second in his entire career.

Again, I'm not knocking the horse, it was a workout, nothing more. I would think he will have trouble being ready for the HGC off this effort alone.

These were essentially the same type of horses RT was running against with the exception of the GC and the Pacific. If the time was 'very slow' then why did Tres Borrachos not hold on better, the way he did in the Gold Cup --- was that pace 'very slow', as well? Or was that pace 'fast'?

Moreover, if the pace was 'very slow', then why did all the horses that were behind RT early ALSO get wiped out in the lane (with the exception of Slew's Tiznow)? Hadn't Dakota Phone shown that he could stay relatively close to RT in a number of their meetings? What was the problem on Saturday? I mean, he was BEHIND RT and backed up in the lane relative to him.

You've obviously developed a good model here and it works for you. But some of the things you write just don't make sense to me. It stems from the assumption that numeric pace is a larger set than setups -- moves with a race and the type of race it is-- and that your figures determine how you 'see' races. The underlying assumption is that such a system will reveal things that are not immediately obvious. While this is a good thing, what's obvious is that the way horses run, more often than not, is a good indication of who exactly the 'pace' favored and who exactly ran well and poorly.

It seems to me that 'slow' and 'fast' paces need to 'result' in the same 'type' of race, a distinct type for fast and a distinct type for slow, on a consistent basis. From the little I've been able to follow, this isn't the case.

cmorioles · #10 05-10-2010, 01:47 PM

Well, the horses aren't machines and they aren't always in the same form. Tres B is clearly not the same horse, and the rest stink. There is a reason Rail Trip was 6/5 ML coming off an eight month layoff.

As far as numeric pace, it works pretty well. Setups can work well too. Together they tell the whole story.

parsixfarms · #11 05-10-2010, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Under no circumstances would I consider a horse sitting behind an overmatched foe in very slow time then flying home late impressive. This is especially true when said horse has never shown the ability to do this from farther back than second in his entire career.

Again, I'm not knocking the horse, it was a workout, nothing more. I would think he will have trouble being ready for the HGC off this effort alone.

I believe he will be running in the Californian next, then the Gold Cup. This was good first step off a nine-month layoff.

CSC · #12 05-10-2010, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I believe he will be running in the Californian next, then the Gold Cup. This was good first step off a nine-month layoff.

My experience with Ellis is he is far better off an extended layoffs than the perverbial second off the layoff as for most Trainer's. I would be leary if one is expecting big improvement from him in his next. Depending on the field I will gladly bet against him at his projected underlay but hey that's just me.

cmorioles · #13 05-10-2010, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I believe he will be running in the Californian next, then the Gold Cup. This was good first step off a nine-month layoff.

I agree, I'm just not ready to crown him some big horse yet.

miraja2 · #14 05-10-2010, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Back to the topic, are people really excited about Rail Trip?

Am I excited? Not really.
But he is an older male horse who actually ran a pretty good route race. Given how infrequently that happens these days, a potential matchup between he and Zenyatta is (sadly) more interesting than most potential races out there right now.