Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Watch the replays of the years you are quoting guys... the horses who win this race take the lead at the very end of the turn or after the final turn, not on the turn.

When I have time I'll check it out. I looked back at the pps of the derby winners since '92 and only three had taken the lead coming from behind at the quarter pole. Big Brown,Barbaro and Real Quiet. Quite a few had closed ground to within less than a length during the same point in the race.

It wouldn't surprise me that NP was in front at some point in between calls or earlier than Big Brown or Barbaro. (Although my recollection of Barbaro's race was that he had the lead midway on the turn.)

In any event if you watch BB's and Barbaro's derbys I would guess that they were moving away from the others behind them when they made those moves. This was not the case with Nobles Promise. He was separated from SS by the same distance throughout the run down the backstretch and around the turn. If NP made a premature move then so did Super Saver.

What really was happening was the two leaders were backing up to the field. On the pan shot from NBC you can only see three horses when NP inherited the lead. That gave the appearance that he was moving swiftly and perhaps prematurely but only from the skycam can you see that SS was moving just as quickly as NP.

If there was any move that hurt NP's chances it was the one going into the clubhouse turn.