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#1
10-01-2006, 12:03 AM
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What is this " he can run on any surface " nonsense? Based on what? His breeding? You're being silly. The likelihood that Discreet Cat can transfer his dirt ability to the turf is very small.
I realize your unfounded BC predictions for him are an internet free roll. There is no indication whatsoever that he will run in any BC race and it is certainly not like Godolphin to deviate from their well mapped out plans to simply take a shot. The reason Discreet Cat missed races earlier this summer is because he is basically a laimo. They never intended on running in the Dwyer, regardless of what was printed, and that was due to his sore going nature. In fact, it was just that situation that allowed him to pay 5-1 in his debut. It was widely know that he was very talented but just as widely known that he had serious soreness issues. This is specifically why he is lightly raced. 
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#4
10-01-2006, 09:47 PM
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No doubt on raceday Discreet Cat puts those issues behind him. I would say, however, that they have a lot to do with his light campaign. After seeing him today I hope we get to see a lot more of him. He may not have beaten much but that was a scary display. It's not as though Valid Notebook is a total bum. Four of his last five races have produced Beyer figures in the high 90s and Discreet Cat laughed at him like he was a 10 claimer. Anybody that doesn't think Discreet Cat is capable of monsterous performances is kidding themselves. The only question left, and it's a legitimate one, is how he will do when challenged by a relative equal. I say relative because it isn't entirely clear he has an equal.
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#5
10-01-2006, 09:55 PM
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I think the only equal rival for him would be Bernardini, and I wouldnt be quick to say Bernardini is even his equal.
The good ones run through their problems, they all get sore. You know how they go, sometimes the feel good, sometimes they dont. However, the real special ones will go on and show up every race. DC trounced a pretty decent field today, that field wasnt as weak as many think. He didnt break all that sharp, he pulled a little, and he still smoked them. He is a very special horse. 
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#6
10-01-2006, 10:03 PM
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Is Discreet Cat's light campaign because of numerous physical setbacks and out of necessity to give him time to recover from his races? Do u think that the presence of Bernardini in the family has allowed them to take a much more conservative approach with him than they might have taken, or needed to take, if he was the only star in a one-star stable? Hope this makes sense.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#7
10-01-2006, 10:10 PM
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I'm not a trainer and don't know anything about the physical care of racehorses so I could only make fairly uneducated guesses but I would say it is highly likely that his physical issues have a great deal to do with his relatively light schedule. I guess when you have those concerns, especially with a supremely talented horse, you would tend to err on the side of caution.
I also agree that having Bernardini in the barn makes it easier to pass a race like the Classic. When you likely already have the favorite it certainly lessens the temptation to " take a shot " with another horse, so to speak. One thing I will say is that in my experience even good horses tend not to perform up to their potential when they are placed, or sometimes rushed, into major races that they were originally planning on passing.
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#8
10-01-2006, 10:16 PM
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#9
10-01-2006, 10:25 PM
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As for your claims about the BC Mile....this honestly makes little to no sense. Horses basically go to the turf when dirt isn't really an option and a horse like Discreet Cat isn't making a brief excursion to the turf until he's proven he can't compete at the highest level on the dirt. Winning the BC Mile would NOT help Discreet Cat's breeding potential based on where he stands right now. He has to go out and prove himself on the dirt, in Grade 1 races, one way or the other before they would ever entertain thoughts of throwing him on the turf ( which they are realistically unlikely to ever do ). I hear all your " thinking outside the box " comments, and I understand where you're coming from, but I also don't think Godolphin would agree with you at all and nothing about their past suggests they do.
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#10
10-01-2006, 10:19 PM
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Yes. Do u think that the presence of Bernardini in the family has allowed them to take a much more conservative approach with him than they might have taken, or needed to take, if he was the only star in a one-star stable? No, this horse has some really smart connections that don't push their horses and do right by their horses. Not saying that this is not the case but my question is how does anyone know how he would respond to a tougher schedule? We don't know, and we won't ever know if DC can handle a tough campaign. The connections won't push him and they don't have to. I expect DC is going to need a similar campaign to GZ. When he runs, I can see that his galloping style would make him prone to soundness issues. To me, he runs like an unsound horse. He really hits the ground hard with his front end, but he is as fast as they come, which enhances his problems. But how did he know that? So my question then was did they give him the long breaks because he was coming out of his races showing that he needed it (physically spent or sore perhaps?) or were they giving him the breaks just because they THOUGHT it was what was best for him in the long run? The reason that connections know how much a horse can take is mostly a guess, but there are indicators. For instance, I think that Barbaro lost weight after a race. Barbaro could also have come out of races puffy or it may have taken him longer to recover from a race. He also may have had some underlying soundness issues. These are all of my opinions and I hope it helps. There are probably some others on this board that are a little more qualified and knowledgeable in this subject area than I am though...
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#11
10-01-2006, 10:42 PM
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A horse as talented as this one can run on anything. Of course there is a chance that he might not like the turf but i think the chances of him being successful on it are more than just "small". Horses going dirt to turf are more likely to be successful than the other way around.
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#12
10-01-2006, 10:47 PM
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Well, that's a statement of the obvious, as for the most part horses are only run on the turf when they have demonstrated a general dislike for the dirt or inability to run effectively on that surface. There is a lot more money, and many more opportunities, for dirt horses in North America. What I should have said is that few horses transfer brilliance on one surface to brilliance on another. And, from a breeding standpoint, switching him to the turf may detract from his desirability, especially before he has genuinely proven himself in Grade 1 dirt races.
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