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#1
04-28-2010, 12:58 PM
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[quote=tanner12oz;640873]you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?[/QUOTE
Yes, the median would be a better example here. You expect a Giac/Clos Arg exacta here? (That was what 9 grand or something) Quite a skew. 
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#2
04-28-2010, 01:32 PM
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[quote=randallscott35;640880]
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2009: Mine That Bird/Pioneerof the Nile $2,074.80 2008: Big Brown/Eight Belles $141.60 2007: Street Sense/Hard Spun $101.80 2006: Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat $587.00 2005: Giacomo/Closing Argument $9,814.80 2004: Smarty Jones/Lion Heart $65.20 2003: Funny Cide/Empire Maker $97.00 2002: War Emblem/Proud Citizen $1,300.80 2001: Monarchos/Invisible Ink $1,229.00 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus/Aptitude $66.00
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#3
04-28-2010, 01:33 PM
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I wouldn't be too happy if I bet 760 bucks and got back 150...but that's me.
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#4
04-28-2010, 01:37 PM
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#5
04-28-2010, 01:39 PM
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$84 total
never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box Jackson Bend Sidney's Candy Conveyance Line of David finished itm in slop exacta box Mission Impazible Super Saver Devil May Care Backtalk top beyer exacta box Sidney's Candy 100 Devil May Care 100 Jackson Bend 100 Conveyance 99 Ice Box 99 itm at churchill exacta box Backtalk Super Saver Mission Impazible never lost on dirt exacta box Lookin At Lucky Line of David American Lion never ran on dirt exacta box Make Music for Me Sidney's Candy never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box Paddy O'Prado Dean's Kitten Stately Victor horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box Noble's Promise Dublin Discreetly Mine Awesome Act Homeboykris
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#6
04-28-2010, 01:41 PM
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#8
04-28-2010, 01:43 PM
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Genius work. Seriously- this is a cool approach, regardless of whether it works or not.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#9
04-28-2010, 01:45 PM
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#11
04-28-2010, 01:47 PM
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#12
04-28-2010, 02:11 PM
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#13
04-28-2010, 11:55 PM
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#14
04-29-2010, 12:42 AM
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#15
04-28-2010, 02:55 PM
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Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.
I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+. [quote=tanner12oz;640901] Quote:
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#16
04-28-2010, 03:10 PM
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Outstanding
 Quote:
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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#17
04-28-2010, 03:11 PM
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"Average payout"--I don't know that the mean is the figure you want. I think the median would be more illustrative. It is $364.30.
I think you have to actively dislike two or three of the top picks to make this work at all. And until you know the projected "chalk" exactas, you are kind of in the dark. All of the "low" exactas in the past decade involved at least one chalk horse.
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#18
04-28-2010, 03:23 PM
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tector,
agreed... think the point I was trying to make was without the '05 or '09 results which had 50-1 bomber the payout it much much less... those results skew the average. if you believe the two favs finish outside the top 2 the all w/all should be profitable. I just don't have the bankroll to try it. 
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#19
04-28-2010, 09:33 PM
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[quote=wapete;640940]Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.
I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+. Very good idea for fence swinging. Better to save on the front end than cash a "loser" if its LAL and Icebox
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