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  #1  
Old 04-28-2010, 12:58 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
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[quote=tanner12oz;640873]you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?[/QUOTE

Yes, the median would be a better example here. You expect a Giac/Clos Arg exacta here? (That was what 9 grand or something) Quite a skew.
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  #2  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:32 PM
tanner12oz tanner12oz is offline
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[quote=randallscott35;640880]
Quote:
Originally Posted by tanner12oz View Post
you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?[/QUOTE

Yes, the median would be a better example here. You expect a Giac/Clos Arg exacta here? (That was what 9 grand or something) Quite a skew.
yeah obviously that is an extreme example and i dont think there is a high probability of that happening...i also think there is a high probability of both lookin at lucky and sidneys candy running out... something in the 10/1-20/1 over a 10/1-20/1 is what im expecting (average win price is $29 bucks past 10 years)

2009: Mine That Bird/Pioneerof the Nile $2,074.80
2008: Big Brown/Eight Belles $141.60
2007: Street Sense/Hard Spun $101.80
2006: Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat $587.00
2005: Giacomo/Closing Argument $9,814.80
2004: Smarty Jones/Lion Heart $65.20
2003: Funny Cide/Empire Maker $97.00
2002: War Emblem/Proud Citizen $1,300.80
2001: Monarchos/Invisible Ink $1,229.00
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus/Aptitude $66.00
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  #3  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:33 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
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Location: USA
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I wouldn't be too happy if I bet 760 bucks and got back 150...but that's me.
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  #4  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:37 PM
johnny pinwheel johnny pinwheel is offline
Woodbine
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: saratoga ny
Posts: 986
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35 View Post
I wouldn't be too happy if I bet 760 bucks and got back 150...but that's me.
c'mon you get to say you hit the exacta in the derby....it only cost you $610...lol
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  #5  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:39 PM
Port Conway Lane Port Conway Lane is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,463
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$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris
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  #6  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:41 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris
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  #7  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:42 PM
tector's Avatar
tector tector is offline
Sheepshead Bay
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35 View Post
I agree!
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  #8  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:43 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris
Genius work. Seriously- this is a cool approach, regardless of whether it works or not.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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  #9  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:45 PM
Sightseek's Avatar
Sightseek Sightseek is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 11,024
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris
Don't forget the "Legends" box and first time trainers box!
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  #10  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:45 PM
ninetoone's Avatar
ninetoone ninetoone is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: VA, USA
Posts: 2,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek View Post
Don't forget the "Legends" box and first time trainers box!
and the TP box!
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  #11  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:47 PM
mclem0822 mclem0822 is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
Posts: 5,093
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris
Awesome work.
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  #12  
Old 04-28-2010, 02:11 PM
Port Conway Lane Port Conway Lane is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor
Noble's Promise (removed from list below)

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris
reduces total cost by $2
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  #13  
Old 04-28-2010, 11:55 PM
chucklestheclown chucklestheclown is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,562
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane View Post
$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris
My days of betting like this are over. Take a stand and make your picks. Missing a huge exacta (or tri or super) because of a January MSW sucks.
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  #14  
Old 04-29-2010, 12:42 AM
Port Conway Lane Port Conway Lane is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chucklestheclown View Post
My days of betting like this are over. Take a stand and make your picks. Missing a huge exacta (or tri or super) because of a January MSW sucks.
This is my stand. The way I figure it once the first horse crosses the line I have roughly a 15% chance that the second horse will be in one of the categories listed. GOOD LUCK !
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  #15  
Old 04-28-2010, 02:55 PM
wapete wapete is offline
Les Bois
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 43
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Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.

I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+.

[quote=tanner12oz;640901]
Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35 View Post

yeah obviously that is an extreme example and i dont think there is a high probability of that happening...i also think there is a high probability of both lookin at lucky and sidneys candy running out... something in the 10/1-20/1 over a 10/1-20/1 is what im expecting (average win price is $29 bucks past 10 years)

2009: Mine That Bird/Pioneerof the Nile $2,074.80
2008: Big Brown/Eight Belles $141.60
2007: Street Sense/Hard Spun $101.80
2006: Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat $587.00
2005: Giacomo/Closing Argument $9,814.80
2004: Smarty Jones/Lion Heart $65.20
2003: Funny Cide/Empire Maker $97.00
2002: War Emblem/Proud Citizen $1,300.80
2001: Monarchos/Invisible Ink $1,229.00
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus/Aptitude $66.00
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  #16  
Old 04-28-2010, 03:10 PM
Riot's Avatar
Riot Riot is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,153
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Outstanding

Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane
$84 total
__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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  #17  
Old 04-28-2010, 03:11 PM
tector's Avatar
tector tector is offline
Sheepshead Bay
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: South Florida
Posts: 1,053
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"Average payout"--I don't know that the mean is the figure you want. I think the median would be more illustrative. It is $364.30.

I think you have to actively dislike two or three of the top picks to make this work at all. And until you know the projected "chalk" exactas, you are kind of in the dark. All of the "low" exactas in the past decade involved at least one chalk horse.
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  #18  
Old 04-28-2010, 03:23 PM
wapete wapete is offline
Les Bois
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 43
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tector,

agreed... think the point I was trying to make was without the '05 or '09 results which had 50-1 bomber the payout it much much less... those results skew the average.

if you believe the two favs finish outside the top 2 the all w/all should be profitable.

I just don't have the bankroll to try it.
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  #19  
Old 04-28-2010, 09:33 PM
cloud_break cloud_break is offline
Sunshine Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 92
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[quote=wapete;640940]Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.

I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+.



Very good idea for fence swinging. Better to save on the front end than cash a "loser" if its LAL and Icebox
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