Class Handicapping

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is exactly why everyone here makes fun of you and brushes you aside as a useless piece of trash. I answered your question with my thoughts, and instead of actually discussing what I said, right or wrong, you attack me and others. I poke fun at your bike analyses because HORSES ARE NOT BIKES AND RACETRACKS ARE NOT VELODROMES. If you actually got on the back of a horse and rode it you would realize they don't operate like a piece of human operated machinery where you can pick and choose when or how fast they go.

Analyzing Keeneland this meet has nothing to do with one specific winner. That was the first one to run back. It has plenty to do with being able to refer back to my notes on how the track was playing- because if you haven't noticed your precious polytrack has a significant bias which changes daily. You still haven't responded to what you said was an incorrect analysis of a race a couple weeks ago- well guess what, one of the horses I suggested might be a good play against is the 5/2 favorite in tomorrow's 5th. Perhaps you could do everyone a favor and explain why she's a great play or not because clearly I'm not smart enough in your mind to do it.

I completely but respectfully disagree that your charts can determine what happened inside of a race because at the core they're no different than looking at a raw running line.

Rather than fighting change and trying to get a reaction out of me, you might want to consider a suggestion:

Watching replays intently at KEE is pretty much a waste of valuable time. This is because with TRAKUS you get a more precise sense of how the race was run. The idea, is to GENERALIZE. I'm not so much concerned as to what happened in a particular race to a particular horse as much as I'm interested in how a particular angle/situation generalizes. Once I'm at this point, i.e., have formulated a method of identifying 'mismatches', I can then play multiple tracks. The idea behind winning today is to find these prime plays, and as many of them as you possibly can. It allows you to not force plays.

If I have an automated pace/speed system in place, I can easily spot mismatches at multiple tracks. Why in the world would I want to spend hours watching races when I can see from a chart who ran against the grain and who didn't?

As for how a track is playing, the charts instantly show this. I don't buy into all the modeling of tracks BS; if this was of any value, then all the Sartinistas would be counting their winnings rather than spending even more money on yet another program.

The idea, broadly, is to model in a way that allows you to play ANY track, without preparation, without specific modeling, without figures, etc. If I'm spending more than 5 minutes to handicap a race, then I'm wasting valuable time.