DERBY 136: Jocks nearly finalized; Bejarano gets Line of David..

[philcski]

Approximate current mid-market from Betfair (note the takeout is much lower than what is available stateside, but market is a bit thin right now and we should have a better idea of off odds this time next week):
Eskendereya 11/5
Lookin At Lucky 6/1
Sidneys Candy 12/1
Awesome Act 18/1 (offer 15/1, no bids)
Endorsement 19/1
Dublin 30/1
Ice Box 30/1
Super Saver 30/1
American Lion 35/1
Stately Victor 35/1 (offer 27/1, no bids)
Line of David 35/1
Noble's Promise 40/1 (offer 30/1, no bids)
Interactif 50/1 (offer 40/1, no bids)
Rule 50/1 (offer 35/1, no bids)
Homeboykris 100/1 (offer 65/1, no bids)
Aikenite 150/1 (offer 100/1, no bids)
Backtalk 150/1 (offer 100/1, no bids)
Conveyance 60/1 (offer 40/1, no bids)
Mission Impazible 30/1
Deans Kitten 75/1 (offer 50/1, no bids)

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by philcski

Approximate current mid-market from Betfair (note the takeout is much lower than what is available stateside, but market is a bit thin right now and we should have a better idea of off odds this time next week):
Eskendereya 11/5
Lookin At Lucky 6/1
Sidneys Candy 12/1
Awesome Act 18/1 (offer 15/1, no bids)
Endorsement 19/1
Dublin 30/1
Ice Box 30/1
Super Saver 30/1
American Lion 35/1
Stately Victor 35/1 (offer 27/1, no bids)
Line of David 35/1
Noble's Promise 40/1 (offer 30/1, no bids)
Interactif 50/1 (offer 40/1, no bids)
Rule 50/1 (offer 35/1, no bids)
Homeboykris 100/1 (offer 65/1, no bids)
Aikenite 150/1 (offer 100/1, no bids)
Backtalk 150/1 (offer 100/1, no bids)
Conveyance 60/1 (offer 40/1, no bids)
Mission Impazible 30/1
Deans Kitten 75/1 (offer 50/1, no bids)

Awesome Act looks to be playing the part of the wise guy horse with those odds. I was probably going to take a shot, depending on post-position, but no way at 15-1. I was thinking more like 25 or 30-1. I guess there's so many horses with absolutely no shot, that even horses with marginal talent are going to get bet.

[ninetoone]

I can't see Lookin' at Lucky going off at 6-1. My guess is 4-1 or 9-2. Sidney's Candy I see as 8 or 9 to one.

[slotdirt]

Illman pegs Endorsement as his wise guy horse on his blog, for whatever that is worth.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Illman pegs Endorsement as his wise guy horse on his blog, for whatever that is worth.

makes sense

as far as value goes:

lookin at lucky @ 6-1
Ice box @ 30-1
mission impazzible @ 30-1

all seem like solid value plays....


-bt-

[slotdirt]

Absolutely. Not a Mission Impazible fan (as I said last year with Musket Man, the day a half to Forest Camp wins the Derby, American breeders need to hang it up), but Ice Box should run huge, and Lookin at Lucky will be a great play at 6-1.

[NTamm1215]

Lookin at Lucky has as much chance of being 6-1 as Chuck Simon and I do of riding the Derby.

NT