Zayat Will Be Selling

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont think the $16 million this year is that big of a stretch considering that Eskendereya could bring $12 million right now. I would love to know where they are coming up with $15 million next year though.

So you think Esky stands for $40k at a 3X multiplier? I was projecting more like $30k at a 2X multiplier in this market. Maybe $8mm if they are lucky and someone is willing to overpay.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by philcski

So you think Esky stands for $40k at a 3X multiplier? I was projecting more like $30k at a 2X multiplier in this market. Maybe $8mm if they are lucky and someone is willing to overpay.

He has to win the KD and Travers for this whacky math to potentially be ok

[Riot]

The plan projects four starts per horse for 80 percent of the stable's juveniles and six starts for older runners. "Purse income winnings assume 20 percent placing 1st and 30 percent placing either 2nd or 3rd, the documents stipulate. "The average purse size is assumed to be $38,500 (2010), with 3 percent annual increases thereafter. ... In addition, 2010 assumes large purse wins of $2M and 2011-2014 assumes large purse winnings of $2.5M annually."

Always good to count those Graded wins before they hatch

The Zayat Plan is a great model, though ... I just wrote myself a business plan where I invest $100,000 from my retirement fund in four runners. I assume an average expense of $100/day/horse for about $146,000 per year (I doubt any of them will colic, chip, etc). I figure two of them will win once a month for $10,000 each, so I project purse income winnings of $240,000 a year, for an easy profit of $94,000/year - meaning I break even in just 12 1/2 months. And rest is pure gravy!

I can't understand why people say the horse biz is just an "expensive hobby"?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by freddymo

He has to win the KD and Travers for this whacky math to potentially be ok

Actually not. Best comp in the market right now is First Samurai, and he stands for $30k (down from $40k). The typical price paid is 300 X stud fee, so $9 million. I think the market will no longer support a 300X multiplier, and will adjust down to 200X going forward, so $6 million.

If he wins the Derby and Travers he'd be standing for $50k so a potential price of $10MM-$15MM.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by philcski

Actually not. Best comp in the market right now is First Samurai, and he stands for $30k (down from $40k). The typical price paid is 300 X stud fee, so $9 million. I think the market will no longer support a 300X multiplier, and will adjust down to 200X going forward, so $6 million.

If he wins the Derby and Travers he'd be standing for $50k so a potential price of $10MM-$15MM.

FS gets 30k? OMG

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think its a bargin.

You would. Excellent spelling by the way.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You would. Excellent spelling by the way.

Elitist liberal snob.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by philcski

So you think Esky stands for $40k at a 3X multiplier? I was projecting more like $30k at a 2X multiplier in this market. Maybe $8mm if they are lucky and someone is willing to overpay.

His stud value has to be added to the fact he is an overwhelming fav for the KY Derby. He turned down a legit offer in the neighborhood of 8m prior to the Wood. Since then everything that has happened has made him an even stronger fav for the Derby. The only thing that keeps him from being a $20 million dollar horse is being by Giants Causeway. Remember that RA was sold in the 8-10 million dollar range last year. Prior to her becoming all legendary and stuff...

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

His stud value has to be added to the fact he is an overwhelming fav for the KY Derby. He turned down a legit offer in the neighborhood of 8m prior to the Wood. Since then everything that has happened has made him an even stronger fav for the Derby. The only thing that keeps him from being a $20 million dollar horse is being by Giants Causeway. Remember that RA was sold in the 8-10 million dollar range last year. Prior to her becoming all legendary and stuff...

She was sold after the Oaks effort. Not too shabby an effort

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

She was sold after the Oaks effort. Not too shabby an effort

She could have won by 100...and she still wouldnt have nuts...

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

His stud value has to be added to the fact he is an overwhelming fav for the KY Derby. He turned down a legit offer in the neighborhood of 8m prior to the Wood. Since then everything that has happened has made him an even stronger fav for the Derby. The only thing that keeps him from being a $20 million dollar horse is being by Giants Causeway. Remember that RA was sold in the 8-10 million dollar range last year. Prior to her becoming all legendary and stuff...

I thought that being the only fast dirt GCauseway was a plus not a negative. While I get the majority if not all of the GC's have been turfers. I figured that he was "good" on dirt made he an overchiever and different and Hence, more commercial?

Wouldn't being the only (so far) GCauseway dirt "champion" be a draw?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I thought that being the only fast dirt GCauseway was a plus not a negative. While I get the majority if not all of the GC's have been turfers. I figured that he was "good" on dirt made he an overchiever and different and Hence, more commercial?

Wouldn't being the only (so far) GCauseway dirt "champion" be a draw?

Being by Giants Causeway means the biggest fish (Sheikh Mo) isnt a player for him. I dont think it is a negative as a stallion at all. But like the Yankees driving the market in baseball free agency, if SM isnt bidding, the price will be a whole lot less.