Pleasant Prince - excuses?

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

If the Arkansas Derby didn't got 1-2-3 around the track, I might want to try to make a point.

If I couldn't beat a particular surface, I'd stop playing it.

Another option, of course, would be to whine about it.

Oh yeah, pick out one dirt race.
Take a look at the chart for Oaklawn and Kee last week.
It doesn't take a genius to figure out which track was playing fair and which one was not.

[the_fat_man]

4/10

2 wire jobs on POLY at KEE (2 others on turf)

4 wire jobs at OP (and another the winner was 2nd early)

Now, this doesn't really say much but it refutes your point.


I think the notion that there's a BIAS on synthetic surfaces (or that jocks intentionally restrain their horses early) is just ridiculous. It's about as ridiculous as the BOUNCE.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

4/10

2 wire jobs on POLY at KEE (2 others on turf)

4 wire jobs at OP (and another the winner was 2nd early)

Now, this doesn't really say much but it refutes your point.


I think the notion that there's a BIAS on synthetic surfaces (or that jocks intentionally restrain their horses early) is just ridiculous. It's about as ridiculous as the BOUNCE.

Synthetic surfaces, specifically Polytrack, have a temperature bias, when it is in the 50's and 60's, and especially when cloudy, it tightens up and the front end does good. When it is in the 70's and the sun is out, it softens up and closers do much much better.

You are correct that Saturday was a fair day on the polytrack

Wednesday/Thursday and somewhat Friday were a front end highway at Keeneland on the poly. The front end was great all week on the turf.

I can't comment on Oaklawn because I watched two races there all week.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Scav

Synthetic surfaces, specifically Polytrack, have a temperature bias, when it is in the 50's and 60's, and especially when cloudy, it tightens up and the front end does good. When it is in the 70's and the sun is out, it softens up and closers do much much better.

You are correct that Saturday was a fair day on the polytrack

Wednesday/Thursday and somewhat Friday were a front end highway at Keeneland on the poly. The front end was great all week on the turf.

I can't comment on Oaklawn because I watched two races there all week.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Scav

Synthetic surfaces, specifically Polytrack, have a temperature bias, when it is in the 50's and 60's, and especially when cloudy, it tightens up and the front end does good. When it is in the 70's and the sun is out, it softens up and closers do much much better.

You are correct that Saturday was a fair day on the polytrack

Wednesday/Thursday and somewhat Friday were a front end highway at Keeneland on the poly. The front end was great all week on the turf.

I can't comment on Oaklawn because I watched two races there all week.

I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt concerning KEE and took time out to do the charts for 4/07

By race, here are the positions of the top three finishers at the 1st call (for the poly races) -- this is per the charts and not Trakus, btw

1) 3-5-2
2) 2-6-7
3) 8-7-4
4) 5-2-6
6) 10-5-2
8) 1-5-7
9) 3-2-9

Yup, definitely looks like there was a SPEED bias at KEE on Wednesday.

You guys actually bet or keep records? I don't particularly keep many records but this stuff is OBVIOUS.

[Gaining Ground]

if you look at thursday and friday at keeneland the bias is more noticeable.

thursday there were 7 main track races. races 1,2,3 and 8 were won wire to wire. race 4 the winner was on the pace early then dropped into a good spot and race 5 the winner dueled inside on the pace with the runnerup. so, 4 of 7 wire to wire and 2 more on the pace. thats 6 of 7.

friday there were 7 main track races. races 2,3,6,8,10 were won wire to wire. race 1 was a baby race and race 4 the winner was tucked in, close to the pace. 5 of 7 winners wire to wire. 6 of 7 were on or near the lead.

it didnt hurt being on the pace thursday and friday, thats for sure.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt concerning KEE and took time out to do the charts for 4/07

By race, here are the positions of the top three finishers at the 1st call (for the poly races) -- this is per the charts and not Trakus, btw

1) 3-5-2
2) 2-6-7
3) 8-7-4
4) 5-2-6
6) 10-5-2
8) 1-5-7
9) 3-2-9

Yup, definitely looks like there was a SPEED bias at KEE on Wednesday.

You guys actually bet or keep records? I don't particularly keep many records but this stuff is OBVIOUS.

I am not trying to argue with you at all so don't get all fired up, but speed was good both days.

Wednesday
1) Winner was 1/2 length off the front, first call
2) 1.5 length off
3) 2 lengths off (not confirmed because I don't have time to watch replay)
4) 3.5 lengths off
6) Dead closer
8) Gate to wire
9) 2 lengths off

You had to be close Wednesday.
Thursday
1) Gate to wire
2) Gate to wire (not really because Ward's horse took the lead for a while but the chart doesn't show it)
3) Gate to wire
4) Weird race, but was on the front end
5) 1/2 length off
6) Dead last closer
8) Gate to wire