Derby futures

[The Bid]

Scav he wont win a race of merit as an older horse. I doubt he ever wins another graded stake, and he will never win a graded stake 1000000 percent past 7/8ths. That includes G3

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Scav he wont win a race of merit as an older horse. I doubt he ever wins another graded stake, and he will never win a graded stake 1000000 percent past 7/8ths. That includes G3

Dublin or Super Saver?

[The Bid]

Dublin

SS would at least get a look

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Dublin

SS would at least get a look

I don't disagree with you on Dublin, I am shocked that he has held up this long after getting grinded on.

From a TG perspective, SS has a really really good pattern, this last race worries me though, he shoud have rolled Line of David and galloped out fairly strong with that type of trip but looked unfit. I guess the plus side is that he isn't gutted and Derby is third race off the layoff. I am wondering if he has distance limitations, he shouldn't, but who knows.

[The Bid]

Nothing that came out of that race will factor. That was a terrible race. The only horse in there I would consider using is Nobles Promise and that would be underneath. Hes at least genuine, can run the distance, and has shown that hes just as good as a 3 as he was as a juvy. To me hes the only horse of consequence out of that last Arky race. The top 3, total garbage.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Nothing that came out of that race will factor. That was a terrible race. The only horse in there I would consider using is Nobles Promise and that would be underneath. Hes at least genuine, can run the distance, and has shown that hes just as good as a 3 as he was as a juvy. To me hes the only horse of consequence out of that last Arky race. The top 3, total garbage.

See, I can't stand Noble's Promise....Not a fan at all with him, if he runs in the top two I am in alot of trouble on Derby Day.

[The Bid]

Im not a fan,but if you made me take one out of that race hes the only logical horse you can take. He had a ton of trouble in there and still really didn't get licked to bad on a surface that was pretty front end. I think hes the only one worth a look moving forward.

Thats if he even runs on to the Derby. Mcpeek sounded like he was gonna skip

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Nothing that came out of that race will factor. That was a terrible race. The only horse in there I would consider using is Nobles Promise and that would be underneath. Hes at least genuine, can run the distance, and has shown that hes just as good as a 3 as he was as a juvy. To me hes the only horse of consequence out of that last Arky race. The top 3, total garbage.

Not a chance I bet a Cuvee-Clever Trick going 10F. I'm not a big pedigree guy- but eventually breeding like that catches up to him. Noble's Promise is his only stakes winner going 2 turns. He's a nice horse, but the Derby isn't the right spot for him, especially with McPeek saying he's banged up.

I can't find a race in this prep season I actually liked, PERIOD. Obviously Esken's Wood ranks high- but I have a very strong feeling they are holding this one together with string and tape, Pletcher putting wraps on is a HUGE negative. And besides him... they all pretty much suck.

[JerseyJ]

While I like Wayne and I don't think Dublin can win I'll back up the point that he can easily be used underneath...what's likely to happen is he's going to have to revert to his Southwest run where he's going to be 10+ lengths off what is going to be a torrid pace as before I even pick any horses, although I am leaning towards Awesome Act right now, is that he can absolutely hit the board because right away any horse who wants the lead is an automatic toss, and a reason I favor a horse like Dublin over Super Saver is that Super Saver is going to be totally out of his element because he's going to be 5-10+ lengths off the early lead whereas a horse like Dublin has shown he can settle way back and make one late run if the scenario would set it up...while horses like Eskendereya, Awesome Act, et al are higher on my list, I will use Dublin a bit underneath as he's one of about 6 or 7 horses that have a shot to get into the number whereas the other 13 are hopeless.

[The Bid]

Im not sure that horse is real banged up. I think Mcpeek probably agrees with you and would rather try the preakness after the others are softened up a little. I would have the same reservations about him carrying that run on 1 1/4, hes already well beyond his scope. That being said the really good ones do things they aren't supposed to do. Unfortunately Dublin isn't a really good one.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Not a chance I bet a Cuvee-Clever Trick going 10F. I'm not a big pedigree guy- but eventually breeding like that catches up to him. Noble's Promise is his only stakes winner going 2 turns. He's a nice horse, but the Derby isn't the right spot for him, especially with McPeek saying he's banged up.

I can't find a race in this prep season I actually liked, PERIOD. Obviously Esken's Wood ranks high- but I have a very strong feeling they are holding this one together with string and tape, Pletcher putting wraps on is a HUGE negative. And besides him... they all pretty much suck.

His 2 turn win was on Poly also, if it was on dirt it would be a different story.

I agree about Esky, I can care less what they are saying about another horse run down earlier in the day. What is he gonna say, "He's a race away from being dead lame but we can get one more out of him"