Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I thought Eskenderya's Wood was slow early, fast late.

The slower you think the pace was - the more impressive you have to think Eskenderya's race was. You don't win like that over halfway respectable opposition when the pace is a true crawl.

The slower you think the pace was - the more you can entertain the idea that a likely much faster pace in the Derby will have a likely negative impact on the horse because he will have to work a lot harder early or get his face real dirty for a change in mid-pack under a wide-trip loving jockey.

They wash each other out for me.

Eskenderya is obviously the most likely winner - but I'm not a big fan. I think both Quality Road and I Want Revenge were probably better horses at this time. Esk is also from the barn of a trainer who's suspiciously on fire and not very easy to root for.

I'm a much bigger fan of Eightyfiveinafifty and Sidney's Candy as horses because they are much cooler.

If nothing changes with the way they're made - I think 15 years from now Sidney's Candy will still probably have the fastest Beyer of any 2-year-old in the history of Del Mar synthetic. It such a mind-bogglingly wide margin lead he has now.

And when you think 2yo's running huge going 5.5f .. you normally think of a speed and precious pedigree and a 2yo sprint trainer. Sidney's Candy is the total polar opposite of all that. Sire who ran a 123 Beyer going 10fs. Late developing 2nd dam who was a Graded Stakes winner at 12 furlongs and was nothing if not tough and loaded with stamina. A trainer who's numbers are mind-bogglingly better with route horses than sprinters year after year on all 3 different surfaces. That's a real unique horse to me.

It's pretty obvious that Eightyfiveinafifty is the coolest horse in this crop though. As a fan ... I will be pretty happy if Eskenderya gets beat.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If nothing changes with the way they're made - I think 15 years from now Sidney's Candy will still probably have the fastest Beyer of any 2-year-old in the history of Del Mar synthetic. It such a mind-bogglingly wide margin lead he has now.

On the one hand we (FINALLY) have most of the intelligencia, even you, admitting that Beyers aren't very good on synthetics. On the other hand, we continue to rate horses (historically) based on Beyer #'s. Certainly even you can notice the disjointedness here.