Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I guess you shouldn't. Obviously the days other 6 route races mean nothing at all.

The key to everything is simply knowing that the heavily raced Yawanna Twist has had easy trips throughout his long career.

Do you honestly think either of the first two finishers rate to run figures in the 90s going long in the future?

How about Backtalk? You figure he will run a lot of figs in the mid 80s going 1 1/8 down the road? If he runs in the Derby he makes last very tough to achieve for the others. Hell, he's slow going his best distances.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Do you honestly think either of the first two finishers rate to run figures in the 90s going long in the future?

How about Backtalk? You figure he will run a lot of figs in the mid 80s going 1 1/8 down the road? If he runs in the Derby he makes last very tough to achieve for the others. Hell, he's slow going his best distances.

Since when does what they might do in the future have any bearing on what this figure should be?

Quite frankly, the Illinois Derby figures have been indefensibly high in the past few years (several of the runners never came close to repeating their number) and it's possible they took the low end of the range when they punched the 98 because of it. Not like anyone watches any other races from Hawthorne to know if the number is good in context.

And yes- I expect Yawanna Twist to run a 90 again... When he's 2-5 in the New York Derby at FL and wins by a pole in preparation for the Albany and Empire Classic.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Since when does what they might do in the future have any bearing on what this figure should be?

Quite frankly, the Illinois Derby figures have been indefensibly high in the past few years (several of the runners never came close to repeating their number) and it's possible they took the low end of the range when they punched the 98 because of it. Not like anyone watches any other races from Hawthorne to know if the number is good in context.

And yes- I expect Yawanna Twist to run a 90 again... When he's 2-5 in the New York Derby at FL and wins by a pole in preparation for the Albany and Empire Classic.

It was circular logic to annoy DrugS.

By the way, you are either poorly evaluating this year's crop of NY Bred 3YOs or not really thinking it through....or both.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It was circular logic to annoy DrugS.

By the way, you are either poorly evaluating this year's crop of NY Bred 3YOs or not really thinking it through....or both.

More of a joke than an analysis on YT- I honestly haven't been watching the NYB 3yo's like I usually do.

I blame it on living in Kentucky- like all the rest of my problems!

[blackthroatedwind]

They're way above average.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Quite frankly, the Illinois Derby figures have been indefensibly high in the past few years (several of the runners never came close to repeating their number) and it's possible they took the low end of the range when they punched the 98 because of it. Not like anyone watches any other races from Hawthorne to know if the number is good in context.

Not the last 2.

Musket Man won last year with a 98 and was 3rd in both the Derby and Preakness with 96 and 106.

Recapturetheglory took advantage of a strong inside-speed bias and won the ILLI Derby two years ago with a 102. He only ran a 92 in the KY Derby, but broke from post 18, was wide while pressing a solid pace, only a head back after a mile and gave ground late.

Denis of Cork ran a 88 Beyer in the ILLI Derby against the bias RTG took advantage of .. he ran a 97 in the Derby and 93 in the Belmont when 3rd and 2nd.

Even if you want to go back to Cowtown Cat's bias aided win and Sweetnorthernsaint's big win .. both were repeated .. Cowtown Cat was beaten only 3.5 lengths to Street Sense at Saratoga and got a slightly better number and SNS was 2nd in the Preakness to Bernardini with an identical number two races later.