![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
#1
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
In this case with Blind Luck, you just really see the quantum difference in dirt racing and synthetic racing and how the synthetic oval mutes raw speed. Blind Luck has done fine out west because her style particularly suits the surface and how races on synthetic have come to be run.. Zenyatta is another that fits the surface/style scenario. That isn't to say that Blind Luck still couldn't be bested by dawdling pace as she was in the SA Oaks and almost was in the Las Virgenes.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 04-04-2010 at 05:58 PM. |
#2
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
All I want is some consistency. I want the Beyers to be able to show that this is a good horse, whether on synthetics or dirt --- as she now has proven. Clearly, there are horses that are better on one surface over another but is this really the case here? Did this filly suddenly get good by running a respectable number or was she always good? (note: I don't know what she's run in the past and have made the assumption that her peak was around 90). |
#3
|
||||
|
||||
![]() If the numbers are not comparable to each other, something I completely agree with, then why were they being throw around last year in Eclipse discussions? If they are that important then they should be on the same scale.
I highly doubt that Ventana, what looks like the west coasts best sprinter, is 15 points behind the best sprinters out east.
__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Oh yeah, speed figures are often used in Eclipse decisions.
You used to be much smarter. Have you been eating peyote?
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#5
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Are you high, even Beyer used it as an argument last year if memory serves.
__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Obviously Beyer looks at them....but what percentage of voters do...and even if they do how much would it possibly affect the outcomes?
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#7
|
||||
|
||||
![]() I think Crist used them as well in his arguments...so yea some people do, and my point was if the best in the business do to influence the public with their reasoning than they should be at least somewhat accurate.
__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
![]() ....the better question is,where can one find peyote?
|
#9
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
She is absolutely a good horse, and the one to beat on April 30th. Synthetics make her "not as good" a horse as she is on dirt like it does to a lot of horses. Others have about equal ability on both surfaces. A third group move way up on synthetics. The same phenomenon occurs on turf- plenty of turfers can't run a lick on dirt, and excellent dirt horses just look like they're running in place over turf. It's been proven time and again over the last 4 years that synthetics are NOT a replacement for dirt, but rather a 3rd surface, and must be treated as such in both handicapping through speed figures or visual/trip/charting assessments.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#10
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
Now, if you want Beyer figures to measure something other than final time, maybe they could be made more accurate, but it is still very hard to do. In racing, the goal isn't to run as fast as possible, it is to win the race. On dirt, these often amount to the same thing. On turf and rubber, that simply is not the case. So again, I'm not sure what you want Beyer to do. His figures have never purported to do anything but measure final time. On rubber, final time is a very small part of determining how good a horse happens to be. |
#11
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
1) less confusing/comical situations for those who have a gauge as to the ability of a given horse 2) the Beyer camp relaxing their (equally comical) campaign against synthetic horses This is not to say that there's a way to reconcile these numbers, however. It's just an intractable situation if only speed is involved. |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
![]() The agenda is yours Fat Man....not Beyer's.
It is every person's responsibility to learn and understand these things. I won't argue that " racing " hasn't done a good job over the years explaining these things to the masses, and too many people continue to lead others in the absolute wrong direction, but ultimately these concepts that CJ laid out aren't that complicated. There are two factors...one is a better job needs to be done to educate....but the bigger one is that people need to be willing to listen....really listen. Simply falling on the misplaced Beyer hatred is specifically NOT listening.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#13
|
||||
|
||||
![]() [quote=blackthroatedwind;632714]The agenda is yours Fat Man....not Beyer's.
Simply falling on the misplaced Beyer hatred is specifically NOT listening.[quote] Exactly. It's all on me. I mean, I was bashing Beyer(s) way before Beyerites were bashing synthetics. I have an agenda: 1) crush the BEYERITE paradigm 2) crush the Pick(3)4(6) paradigm Come on, Bro. The game is beatable without having to steer all the neophytes in the wrong direction. |
#14
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
"Racing in England and France, in particular is utterly foreign to an American; horses gallop along in a tight pack in virtual slow motion during the early stages of a race and don't accelerate in earnest until they turn into the stretch. As a result, their final times are unimportant, and speed figures would be useless as a handicapping tool." The answer is.....Andrew Beyer (Beyer on Speed, p 149). You make it sound as if by making speed figures for horses that run on synthetic or turf Beyer and other figure makers are engaged in some kind of deceitful fraud. I don't think that's the case. As the quotation above illustrates, Beyer has always been very open about what figures are, and - just as importantly - what they are not. If other people use speed figures as some sort of gospel truth when it comes to synthetic and turf horses, then that is on them, not him. As CJ pointed out, since the figures merely involve the final time, it strikes me that it is up to the individual horseplayer to determine if the final time (and therefore a speed figure) is important or not in a given race. |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
Eskendereya was very impressive, especially in comparison to the slow come home time for the Excelsior, but both of these races were contested in the manner that we often see in turf/synthetic races and typically result in final figures slower than the actual performance may warrant. |
#16
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
|
#17
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
There were two 7F races that were run in 1:21 and change, and NY-bred MSW horses cut a 44 and change half, so the track was not slow. The final time of the Wood was the third slowest in the past 14 years; that's largely a function of the early pace. Still, it gets a higher figure than either the Carter or Bay Shore, which were run in pretty representative time. Maybe, we'll have to agree to disagree but I don't think the figures for the two-turn races make sense. |
#18
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
On raw times, the Excelsior had a raw pace figure (Beyer Scale) of 92 and a raw speed figure of 92. The Wood had a raw pace figure of 95 and a speed figure of 105. I'm using the 6f time for the pace calls. |
#19
|
||||
|
||||
![]() The Excelsior was one FUNKY race. This was the, at least, 3rd time on Saturday that a horse made a late run on the inside to get 2nd, when it appeared hopelessly beaten earlier, and the outside horse appeared to be running on quick sand.
|