Eskendereya: 109 BSF for Wood

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Very slow horses. More than a reason, are you serious?

Am I serious? Eskendereya ran almost 1.5 seconds faster than them. How low do you want to make the Excelsior figure? As bad as the field was, the top three finishers were still running 95-100s coming into the race.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Am I serious? Eskendereya ran almost 1.5 seconds faster than them. How low do you want to make the Excelsior figure? As bad as the field was, the top three finishers were still running 95-100s coming into the race.

Beyers are for clowns. 88

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Beyers are for clowns. 88

Who are those numbers (the ones you totally pull out of your ass) for?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Who are those numbers (the ones you totally pull out of your ass) for?

Excell

[MisterB]

I would think that performance was just what the doctor ordered 4 weeks out from the Derby. What will he run when asked? Looked like a Sunday morning work out.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by MisterB

I would think that performance was just what the doctor ordered 4 weeks out from the Derby. What will he run when asked? Looked like a Sunday morning work out.

....it was

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Beyers are for clowns. 88

i agree. Eskendereya loped around three wide behind a pace where no pressure was felt what so ever. the rider could of had the lead at any time. only one horse made a move (awesome act) and he came up with absolutely nothing at the end. they can give him a 109 , a 115 or a 120 for that matter. the horse might as well of been working out. this horse has not had to run hard yet this year. put him in there with 19 other horses with a couple that have nothing to lose when they go 46 to the half and it could be a whole new ball game. break out the bandwagon because i smell 8 to 5 coming....lol. i wish they gave him a 120 as if these numbers ever prove a thing. 24, 49, 1:13.5 and 1:37.7...oh yeah, he was flying...give me a break.

[Travis Stone]

Everyone also loves to dangle Pletcher's record but how many of those horses were hopeless? Keyed Entry, Join In the Dance (who ran okay considering), Wild Horses etc. And he's outperformed with a lot of them as well based on odds (Limehouse, Bluegrass Cat)... it just takes the right horse at the right time, and is not a reflection of his abilities as a trainer.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Everyone also loves to dangle Pletcher's record but how many of those horses were hopeless? Keyed Entry, Join In the Dance (who ran okay considering), Wild Horses etc. And he's outperformed with a lot of them as well based on odds (Limehouse, Bluegrass Cat)... it just takes the right horse at the right time, and is not a reflection of his abilities as a trainer.

There were also a lot that weren't considered "hopeless" going in to the Derby and underperformed expectations. When you have a stable the size of Pletcher's, during most of the year, you have the luxury of picking your spots with your horses. For the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup, you don't get that luxury. Given that fact, I think it's hard to say that his rather dismal record on the big days does not reflect on his operation's performance, especially when he seems to have almost all of the well-heeled owners who are specifically looking for success on those days.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

There were also a lot that weren't considered "hopeless" going in to the Derby and underperformed expectations. When you have a stable the size of Pletcher's, during most of the year, you have the luxury of picking your spots with your horses. For the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup, you don't get that luxury. Given that fact, I think it's hard to say that his rather dismal record on the big days does not reflect on his operation's performance, especially when he seems to have almost all of the well-heeled owners who are specifically looking for success on those days.

There is one winner, and nineteen losers every year. Nobody should have an expectation of victory in the race. Furthermore, do you really think Pletcher would have wanted to start Keyed Entry, if it were up to him? Doubtful. And the same could be said for plenty of his other starters.

I don't consider a trainer "jinxed" when hopeless speed horses, or synthetic specialists (Monba, Advice), fail to win the race. It's a hard race to win! Even Pletcher said yesterday he's never had a horse who he felt could truly prosper at 10f.

A trainer who can beat Curlin in the Belmont with a filly, is a trainer who will eventually get the Derby.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i agree. Eskendereya loped around three wide behind a pace where no pressure was felt what so ever. the rider could of had the lead at any time. only one horse made a move (awesome act) and he came up with absolutely nothing at the end. they can give him a 109 , a 115 or a 120 for that matter. the horse might as well of been working out. this horse has not had to run hard yet this year. put him in there with 19 other horses with a couple that have nothing to lose when they go 46 to the half and it could be a whole new ball game. break out the bandwagon because i smell 8 to 5 coming....lol. i wish they gave him a 120 as if these numbers ever prove a thing. 24, 49, 1:13.5 and 1:37.7...oh yeah, he was flying...give me a break.

What more did you want him to do yesterday? The horse rated perfectly, exploded when asked and destroyed his competition yesterday. Regardless of price, he proved that as of right now he is the most likely winner of the Derby. Maybe he hasn't had to run hard because of his tactical speed and he is just that much better than what he has faced. Right now, I don't see anything that appears to be better than him. Of course, there are still four weeks until the Derby and a lot can change between now and then, but it is hard to argue that there is a better 3 year old out there than him at the moment.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by pointman

What more did you want him to do yesterday? The horse rated perfectly, exploded when asked and destroyed his competition yesterday. Regardless of price, he proved that as of right now he is the most likely winner of the Derby. Maybe he hasn't had to run hard because of his tactical speed and he is just that much better than what he has faced. Right now, I don't see anything that appears to be better than him. Of course, there are still four weeks until the Derby and a lot can change between now and then, but it is hard to argue that there is a better 3 year old out there than him at the moment.

There isn't. No one has come close to the two performances he's posted. Now, the best horse doesn't always win the Derby (see Point Given in a long list), but no other 3-year-old has shown what Eskendereya has shown in his FOY win and Wood score.

[tector]

You can only run in the race you are in--and all of the other horses in the Wood had the same pace scenario. What did they do with it?

If people are saying the Derby could be a race that falls apart, well no sh*t. That seems to happen every third year or so (like last year). If that is your betting strategy, I can't knock it, because those races pay great. Unfortunately you still have the task of determining who will pick the pieces under that scenario. Given the prices on horses like Giacomo and MTB, obviously that is a pretty tough game to beat.

FWIW, if Esky makes the gate in one piece, I DO intend to bet some "fall apart" tickets since I already have him very well covered by my future book ticket. I don't need to put another penny on him, which will be a luxury.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by tector

You can only run in the race you are in--and all of the other horses in the Wood had the same pace scenario. What did they do with it?

If people are saying the Derby could be a race that falls apart, well no sh*t. That seems to happen every third year or so (like last year). If that is your betting strategy, I can't knock it, because those races pay great. Unfortunately you still have the task of determining who will pick the pieces under that scenario. Given the prices on horses like Giacomo and MTB, obviously that is a pretty tough game to beat.

FWIW, if Esky makes the gate in one piece, I DO intend to bet some "fall apart" tickets since I already have him very well covered by my future book ticket. I don't need to put another penny on him, which will be a luxury.

The derby fell apart last year?

[dylbert]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Beyers are for clowns. 88

Are you suffering from Dale Earnhart Jr. withdrawal on this NASCAR-less Sunday? Hence, the "88"...

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by dylbert

Are you suffering from Dale Earnhart Jr. withdrawal on this NASCAR-less Sunday? Hence, the "88"...

Haha. I don't understand the Nascar appeal. Unless you are actually in the race, I can't see being a spectator.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Am I serious? Eskendereya ran almost 1.5 seconds faster than them. How low do you want to make the Excelsior figure? As bad as the field was, the top three finishers were still running 95-100s coming into the race.

Isn't the explanation here the slow paces in both the Excelsior and the Wood? The final time of both races seemed a little slow for how the track was overall playing yesterday.

Eskendereya was very impressive, especially in comparison to the slow come home time for the Excelsior, but both of these races were contested in the manner that we often see in turf/synthetic races and result in final figures slower than the actual performance may warrant.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Isn't the explanation here the slow paces in both the Excelsior and the Wood? The final time of both races seemed a little slow for how the track was overall playing yesterday.

Eskendereya was very impressive, especially in comparison to the slow come home time for the Excelsior, but both of these races were contested in the manner that we often see in turf/synthetic races and result in final figures slower than the actual performance may warrant.

It seems like there was a number of slow paced prep races. Horses like Sidneys Candy, American Lion, Discreetly Mine and others who were aided by slow paces are going to find the going much more difficult at Churchill. Not to take anything away from Eskendereya but in that GP stake, he clearly was aided by a slow pace, and he was close to another slow pace again yesterday. He might win at CD but will probably be overbet.

[Travis Stone]

Don't get too hung-up on this number. Regardless of whether or not it's 101, 109 or 119, Eskendereya posted an effort out there that no one in this crop has come close to.

[packerbacker7964]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Don't get too hung-up on this number. Regardless of whether or not it's 101, 109 or 119, Eskendereya posted an effort out there that no one in this crop has come close to.

see post #25