3/36-28 (CD): Derby Future Pool 3

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I'm saying throw out the races that took place at Anita on March 6th. You see that little rat trying to hold on from the 1 hole against Zenyata? They couldn't run that hog down for place. I know that was a fkd up inside speed biased track. Look at the huge move from Interactif on the turn. That's an inside move. Caracortado wasn't getting his moneysworth out there. He ran his same race, but he was running on a much heavier surface than the top 2 were running on. The horse who won the 5th? Never been able to hold on before at Anita. No matter how slow the pace. He'd always been caught. March 6th he found something he really liked. Tap It Light couldn't get to him with the wide move (same as Caracortado couldn't make up ground out there.) Tap It just came back to win the Grade 3 feature on Saturday. You should excuse horses that tried to make outside moves on March 6th. No matter what this guy does next, excuse anybody trying to make a wide move on March 6th.

I really wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt here and took a look at a single race to see if there was a bias against outside runs. The race I looked at was the 7th, where Alphie's Bet was wide throughout, was in the 4th path on the turn, entered in the 4 path (which, btw, is where Coracortado was) and blew them away in the stretch. Now, this was a multi-move race and AB got a decent setup but this kind of works against your theory. You'd be better served to try to understand race types and the timing of moves.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I really wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt here and took a look at a single race to see if there was a bias against outside runs. The race I looked at was the 7th, where Alphie's Bet was wide throughout, was in the 4th path on the turn, entered in the 4 path (which, btw, is where Coracortado was) and blew them away in the stretch. Now, this was a multi-move race and AB got a decent setup but this kind of works against your theory. You'd be better served to try to understand race types and the timing of moves.

You actually wasted your invaluable time to see if there was any validity to his opinion?

Haven't you seen his posts in the past? He's never right.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You actually wasted your invaluable time to see if there was any validity to his opinion?

Haven't you seen his posts in the past? He's never right.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...871#post620871

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I really wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt here and took a look at a single race to see if there was a bias against outside runs. The race I looked at was the 7th, where Alphie's Bet was wide throughout, was in the 4th path on the turn, entered in the 4 path (which, btw, is where Coracortado was) and blew them away in the stretch. Now, this was a multi-move race and AB got a decent setup but this kind of works against your theory. You'd be better served to try to understand race types and the timing of moves.

LOL.......March 13th....

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

LOL.......March 13th....

Wait, was that the day where three winners came at least five wide to win down the stretch? Quinonez rode one, Bejarano, then Espinoza in the nightcap at 36-1. Yeah, it was the track that did Caracortado in.

NT

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Wait, was that the day where three winners came at least five wide to win down the stretch? Quinonez rode one, Bejarano, then Espinoza in the nightcap at 36-1. Yeah, it was the track that did Caracortado in.

NT

March 13th


1) 7 gets to the rail. The 2 and 3 both come off the rail to go by. The 7 also floats out. The 7 looks beat, but is guided back towards the rail. Then, voila, it takes off again.
2) 1 horse was taken off the rail..please note the particularly good effort by the #2 pig called Daniella Roth. She hugged the rail the whole way.
3) the #1 horse was taken outside by Smith, and failed out there. It's probably why he stayed inside with Zenyata later on.
4) turf
5)1 wins... Tap It Light struggles to make up ground with the outside stretch move. Then, he returns to easily win a Grade 3 this last Saturday.
6)1
7)1 horse(a little pig runt) ran 2nd to Zenyata(who was also kept inside.)
8) turf
9) Interactif has a big inside move(against a soft pace leader) after breaking from the 2 hole
10) 21.53, 44.38 pace ..resulted in a 75-1 shot getting up late

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

March 13th


1) 7 gets to the rail. The 2 and 3 both come off the rail to go by. The 7 also floats out. The 7 looks beat, but is guided back towards the rail. Then, voila, it takes off again.
2) 1 horse was taken off the rail..please note the particularly good effort by the #2 pig called Daniella Roth. She hugged the rail the whole way.
3) the #1 horse was taken outside by Smith, and failed out there. It's probably why he stayed inside with Zenyata later on.
4) turf
5)1
6)1
7)1 horse(a little pig runt) ran 2nd to Zenyata(who was also kept inside.)
8) turf
9) Interactif has a big inside move(against a soft pace leader) after breaking from the 2 hole
10) 21.53, 44.38 pace ..resulted in a 75-1 shot getting up late

You are clearly the type of person that screams bias when you cherry-pick certain aspects of the results.

A bias exists when horses who seemingly are incapable of doing something, do it with relative ease. The fact that the 50-1 shot for a notoriously good trainer held on for second (by a nose) after setting moderate fractions is not emblematic of a bias. Let's look at the races run on the Pro-Ride.

Race 1- The 3-1 winner races 2-3 paths off the rail the entire way. If this gold rail/speed bias existed then why didn't Swiss Emperor mop him up, he hugged the rail the whole way?

Race 2- The 3/2 winner again races 2-3 wide to the top of the stretch before holding on over a horse who switches to the wrong lead for the final 100 yards! How come this speed favoring track didn't help Daniella Roth, the pacesetter?

Race 3- This one is absolutely hilarious. The winner is never anywhere near the inside and in fact, the 2nd place finisher has one of the all-time perfect trips and still can't hang on. There's absolutely no way a person could watch this race and believe that this was a biased track. None. If you believe this track was biased then you need to contact the Little Red Feather people and let them know they have a stakes horse on their hands in Valkyrie Missile.

Race 5- A one-way speed horse (who was lone speed on paper) gets away with MURDER on the front end and holds on to win by a diminishing margin. The eventual 4th place finisher sits a perfect trip just behind the lead and has nothing in the stretch drive.

Race 6- The 13-10 favorite wins and despite breaking from the rail he races at least 3-4 wide from the half-mile pole in. How did leading rider Rafael Bejarano not get the memo that this track had a gold rail? Surely he wouldn't have taken his horse that wide if that was the case.

Races 7 and 9- I've watched both of these stakes races enough to know that they played true to form based on race flow. Dance to My Tune was given an uncontested lead and was able to set moderate fractions and narrowly held on for second over a slew of very average horses. Sidney's Candy waltzed along and Caracortado miraculously didn't have the same punch when he attempted to race against a poor setup.

Race 10- The one you conveniently dismiss because of the pace. Right, the pace completely collapsed. The $75 winner is never near the rail yet is still able to win.

If you think Caracortado is still a good horse then that's OK. Plenty of people have varying opinions right now. Just don't use something flimsy to back it up and try to turn something that you've made so clearly subjective into something objective.

NT

[SCUDSBROTHER]

OMG...Fine..Whatever...There is no effort strong enough to convince those who want to believe otherwise......... Have to write a check out to the Israeli Dude remodeling the kitchen (no lie.) Hate him so much I'm giving him 20k. It was more than a slow pace. It was much better inside. That's why the tiny rat is able to hold 2nd behind Zenyata. The rest of them just couldn't quite catch that happy lil pig down inside that day.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Race 2- The 3/2 winner again races 2-3 wide to the top of the stretch before holding on over a horse who switches to the wrong lead for the final 100 yards! How come this speed favoring track didn't help Daniella Roth, the pacesetter?

It did help her. She is a member of Roger Stein's pig collection. She was 25-1. 4th is great for that pig. Look at the winner. Announcer thought they had her beat. She "comes back" when she gets closer to the rail in deep stretch. It was better there.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

It did help her. She is a member of Roger Stein's pig collection. She was 25-1. 4th is great for that pig. Look at the winner. Announcer thought they had her beat. She "comes back" when she gets closer to the rail in deep stretch. It was better there.

So you're clinging to this desperate notion by pointing out that this horse hung on for 4th and that a 50-1 held onto second behind Zenyatta. I'm glad I at least completely spelled out what happened throughout the day so that no one here would actually believe your blanket generalizatin on what happened that day.

NT

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Race 10- The one you conveniently dismiss because of the pace. Right, the pace completely collapsed. The $75 winner is never near the rail yet is still able to win.
NT

In the 10th race, a horse on the lead ran 21.53, and 44.38. Bias, or no bias, that's a horse running the fastest splits of the day (and for a 13k purse.) Considering she went way too fast, I think she held for quite a bit longer than one has a right to expect. A bias is an advantage, but cheap horses are still gunna tire if they run the fastest splits of the day.