Handicapping The Turf!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

The single most important factor in handicapping a race on turf is ignored by most handicappers. The turf rail.

In a nutshell, track superintendents use the turf rail to protect the grass. After a dozen or so races, over a couple of days, they erect the temporary rail moving the race outward from the hedge. At Churchill for instance, the settings are; zero (hedge), 15 feet and 22 feet. How does the movement effect the race?

4 rank outsider, virtually wire to wire, $71 ( I saw a poster pick this horse (on Saturday) but this was the proverbial blind squirrel finding an acorn, if the race was on the hedge this horse had no chance)

BBB,

Turf rail awareness was covered brilliantly by Dick Powell this past winter on Brisnet in a piece about the movement of it at Gulfstream the first three weeks. I imagine it's still available and I suggest everyone look at it in advance of this year's GP meet... Your points are well taken! Keeping track of portable rail placement helps find bet-backs and bet-againsts...

As for Embossed, Gus Alonso sang his praises on ATRAB Friday on our Preview Show, and backed it up lucratively on the Tuesday running at KD. I liked him as well, but as an underneath use.. At 12-1 on the ML he was intrigiung.. Aty 35-1 at post time, he was a RIDICULOUS overlay and super playable.

[Pedigree Ann]

Odd that you used Kentucky Downs for your example, because this is a track that runs maybe 7 days a year and doesn't normally need to use a temporary rail to save the turf course for the rest of the meet. As it was, 4 inches of rain in 3 hours on Saturday morning, followed by more rain on Sunday made the turf 'bottomless' and necessitated the postponement. The four stakes races from Saturday were 'tacked on' to the front of the Monday card - couldn't have been tacked onto the end of the day because of daylight problems. Then the Monday card was moved to Tuesday. My guess as to why they used a rail is that the inside part of the turf course was so waterlogged that it would have been dangerous for horses to run on it.

Cardus: I too like Niall and I have heard from more than a few people who bet the horse blindly. If they ran the race Saturday from the hedge; Embossed had no chance.

P. Ann: I have been writing about the turf rail, here and there for over two decades, and most people think I am a crackpot, this was just the latest. You can see how it alters the race, completely. Check out the Delmar forum and do a search (bellsbendboy) you will be amazed at the naysayers.

Kasept: I read Powells article but do not play Gulfstream and am not familiar with the new turf course there. I own over 100 books on handicapping and only a few mention the turf rail.

As far as Embossed, and a guy named Gus "singing his praises", I must admit to being out of tune. At a glance:

Embossed:

Has not raced in two months.

Has never been the distance.

His FASTEST Beyer, is not as fast, as several of the other contenders SLOWEST Beyer!

He is 3 for 17 in his career and has been beaten by at least ten claimers in his career.

He is a non stakes winner facing a field of multiple stakeswinners, most graded.

His last race against similar he was in a six horse field at 20-1 and was trounced.

The positives: a decent half at the training center and good connections.
I would be interested in what "praises" Mr. Alonso sung?

In conclusion; the movement of the rail gave this ridgling a chance. He won because of the misfortune of ALL of the others. His twelve furlongs were just a half second faster than career maidens (fillies) later on the card. BBB

[SentToStud]

Along the same lines....

In addition to where the portable rail is set, I think it's real important WHERE the start of a grass race is.

I play a lot of Calder (though I'd expect any 7/8 turf course to play somewhat the same) and the 7.5F and 8.0F races are started on the straight while the 8.5 and 9.0F races are started in the chute.

In short, the chute races, though longer, favor speed types FAR more than the races started on the straight.

Just a bit of insight I've gained over the decades.

#3 Embossed (Ire) - Draw a line through his Arlington Hanicap performance because of the soft going and wide trip. Two races back, he was trapped throughout and finally found a hole to dart his way through. He's a bit of a tricky read, but I expect a real nice effort from the Irish bred.


BBB


As you will get to know as you experience the forum Gus or "Bogey" on the forum almost always gives a reason why he is betting a horse and even though I tell him he should embellish his wins sometimes he refuses and says he will bet according to what he posts. (extreme changes in track conditions, etc may warrant different strategies) Many times he evens starts with a bankroll amount and gives a running account. He doesn't need my backslapping but as I read your recent pick four pick at Kentucky Downs I was impressed with your analysis and willingness to actually propose a bet with your horse selections. Regardless of the result, your style is appreciated by me but to seemingly just ignore Bogey's anlysis may have been perhaps a little harsh as setting of the fences sometimes may be overcome when one picks up something by other factors. In this case it seemed like Gus saw something by trip analysis and packed it away saying this might be a bombshot in the near future.

Look forward to your further insights.

Miller

[timmgirvan]

God!! I Love This Site

Stud: Chutes wreck havoc and add extreme volatility to our tenet, but still when rails are out speed is flattered, and vice versa. I think Calder is H, 10ft, 15ft.

Miller: For the last few years, I play a pick 4 once or twice a week and always post my exact bet on a forum somewhere, averaging about $20 per play. I then offer a critique a day or two later on the outcome.

On Tuesdays 4, I was awful, but assumed the races would be on the hedge, and when they were not, chaos ensued.

I certainly have no animosity towards Bogie/Gus or anyone else, but do try to be objective in my analysis. Citing that Embossed did not care for the Arlington surface while wide is acceptable, but what changes here in this race?

And two back, in the 2X at Churchill, I singled Embossed in my pick 4. My recollection of his trip would be: "well placed while saving ground, got thru inside when the 70-1 shot drifted out, inherited the advantage at the pole and held sway under steady pressure". Anotherwords he had a dream trip and barely won. How tough of a 2X was it? I do not believe a winner has come out of it, and 1X fillies came home much, much faster a few races earlier.

Again this is not an indictment of anyone's handicapping, but merely another example of how the turf rail affects outcomes. Clearly the "Saturday" selection of Embossed was a shot in the dark fired blindly, but when the rail went up Tuesday all of the closers were severly compromised and did not have any chance. BBB