How a horse improves by 20+ lengths in a month...

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me try this again ....

Post 6: 19 for 251
Post 7: 20 for 225
Post 8: 12 for 171
Post 9: 7 for 120
Post 10: 7 for 87
Post 11: 1 for 53

That's a combined 66 wins.

Post 1 is 62 for 265.

Post position #1 has won 62 of 265 FG dirt routes this meet. That's 23.4% wins. Post positions 8 and out are a combined 66 for 907

Now it makes sense and your point is well taken.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

Try again.

I went on memory and should have said 6 instead of 8.

The point is this that 62 for 265 is 23.4%

66 for 907 is 7.3%

23.4% is huge - 7.3% is surprisingly low.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I went on memory and should have said 6 instead of 8.

The point is this that 62 for 265 is 23.4%

66 for 907 is 7.3%

23.4% is huge - 7.3% is surprisingly low.

No problem I would do it different as I see it as 265 events not 907 starts but it is your money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

No problem I would do it different as I see it as 265 events not 907 starts but it is your money.

If I posted stats for 20 tracks - and both sprints and routes.. you'll have 40 sets of data.

You'll notice that 39 of the 40 sets look similar - and one FG's dirt routes .. sticks out like a sore thumb with wildly skewed numbers in relation to everywhere else.

In the dirt sprints at FG - post 1 wins 16% - which is only 3 percentage points better than the next best post at 13%.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If I posted stats for 20 tracks - and both sprints and routes.. you'll have 40 sets of data.

You'll notice that 39 of the 40 sets look similar - and one FG's dirt routes .. sticks out like a sore thumb with wildly skewed numbers in relation to everywhere else.

The quy earlier in this thread pointed out that the numbers are much more skewed for the quirky Mile 40...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

The quy earlier in this thread pointed out that the numbers are much more skewed for the quirky Mile 40...

That's all the more telling that saving ground into the first turn is key at FG in dirt routes because 8f and 40 yards is the shortest distance they run in dirt routes.

The further away you start from the first turn - the longer your run into it is - and the more chance you have to move closer to the rail.

Here are the stats for 8f 40y races at FG this meet:

Post 1: 51-for-181 (28.2% wins)

Posts 2 through 5: a combined 81-for-724 (11.2% wins)

Posts 6 and outward: a combined 52-for-704 (7.4% wins)

It looks more dramatic if I don't combine them .. but it also takes more time to type that sh!t up.