zito must feel good

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Sounds like this was a mystery that only the racing intelligencia could possibly be aware of. On the other hand, it could also be the case that the horse's trip in the FoY was obvious to even the uninitiated. Stranger things have happened.

And, then again, it could also be the case that IB got lucky with the absolutely perfect setup in the FD. Not like it's the 1st time that Zito has stepped in a stall full of ****. His ass must be even bigger than mine.

The mysterious made simple by the Fat Man.

Ice Box's poor trip in the FoY was the product of making a visually eye catching 5-wide move on the far turn in a race shape that featured a slow pace and very fast come home time.

He was the one horse you would point to from the FoY as running the best race in relation to how his naked running line would look on paper.

In other words, he ran much better than his 86 Beyer indicated. How much better?

Assuming he was capable of running 5 lengths better with a more reasonable pace in front of him and not having to go so wide the entire way around the far turn .. those 5 lengths would inflate his number all the way to a 94.

A 94 wins most 2nd level alw races at Belmont and makes you very competitive for underneath slots in weaker Derby Prep exotics .. it does not however win you the Fla Derby (unless your name is Bullintheheather)

[the_fat_man]

That the horse tried to run against the grain in the FoY is OBVIOUS. That the FD was crying out for a CLOSER is also obvious. Everything else is mumbo jumbo. You can't quantify this type of ****, DrugS. How many SLOW longshots need to win before this sinks in? For every slow horse you don't bet you miss out on some bomb you also didn't bet. The speed model is just not the right/best one for this type of event.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That the horse tried to run against the grain in the FoY is OBVIOUS. That the FD was crying out for a CLOSER is also obvious. Everything else is mumbo jumbo. You can't quantify this type of ****, DrugS. How many SLOW longshots need to win before this sinks in? For every slow horse you don't bet you miss out on some bomb you also didn't bet. The speed model is just not the right/best one for this type of event.

You're making a very incorrect assumption if you think I don't bet slow horses like Ice Box who exit races with trips like he did.

I bet them FAR more often than you think... and more often than most people who aren't certified hopelessly bad bettors. People who post here like Indian Charlie and Tector know quite well that I'm not affraid to bet horses who's recent numbers are too slow to compete.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You're making a very incorrect assumption if you think I don't bet slow horses like Ice Box who exit races with trips like he did.

I bet them FAR more often than you think... and more often than most people who aren't certified hopelessly bad bettors. People who post here like Indian Charlie and Tector know quite well that I'm not affraid to bet horses who's recent numbers are too slow to compete.

I thought it was evident he has been 2 turns a couple of times which out weighed any number, or suped up number based on reviewing the last trip itself. Numbers can be an asset with historical data, but not with new faces. Depending on a pace collapse to win a race doesn't make great horses.