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#1
03-15-2010, 04:59 PM
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Did RA run 130 BSFs all last year and all of the sudden run a 75 last Saturday? I don't think so. Did she run back to her top numbers in her first back? No, but she ran well enough and fast enough that it seems perfectly reasonable to expect that she might be close to where she was last year in her next start. People (including the connections apparently) make it sound as if she went from being Citation last year to being a $5K claimer in her first race this year. Neither is the case. 
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#2
03-15-2010, 05:06 PM
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again here are the facts: 1 horse off from sept to late jan , 1 horse working regurlaly even though she was supposed to be retired since oct they both race sat and will go again in 3 weeks - who has the fitness edge ?? are we to believe that Z has no fitness edge? are we to believe that if the roles were reversed moss and sheriffs would acclerate Z's training from late jan to get her ready to run against a horse that hasn't missed a beat since oct in the AB?
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#3
03-15-2010, 05:21 PM
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Would we be questioning RA's fitness if Zardana wasn't in that race? She would have posted a nice Beyer in a win by open lengths. A lot of folks would be handing her the AB victory already. On the flip side, Zenyatta's number was much lower on that crap surface in her home state. And she only beat a bunch of mules. This is true, I read it on a forum somewhere. Sounds like Zenyatta is the one who should be backing down. Guess she doesn't read Derby Trail.
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#4
03-15-2010, 05:22 PM
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#5
03-15-2010, 05:28 PM
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yes -( Assmussen had no inital say in my opinion , you can put up all the quotes about what he said , they are all just sound bites to the media, in my opinion it was the owners decision ) would you care now to answer my questions since i answered yours ?
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#6
03-15-2010, 05:35 PM
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I have no earthly idea. All I do know is that both horses ran pretty well on Saturday, although both ran considerably slower than they did at the end of their respective campaigns last year. Personally, I know of no reason why both couldn't run better in a race four weeks down the road. What did Rachel run on saturday in terms of BSFs? A 100? Is it really imposible to think that she could run considerably better four weeks later, and that that might be good enough to win the race? I don't think so. I realize BSFs certainly aren't the only way to judge the quality of a performance, but it would seem possible - and perhaps even probable - for her to run a 105+ in four weeks. That could very easily be good enough to win.
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#7
03-15-2010, 05:43 PM
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if you and another similar human being were going to run a race , let's say a distance race , last year you both ran a lot were in shape were both winning races and were working out reguarly now you take off in sept and totally shut down until late jan , you start up training again , you have to change up your regiemen to get ready for a race in april your oppoent let's say danzig, ran his last race in oct, told you he was going to call it quits and retire , but, you see him out there doing his daily work and not missing a beat all throughout the winter would you really want to take him on with only 2 1/2 months of training , while he hasn't missed a beat since oct - who do you think would be better fit to run the race???? .................it's the same with horses , these are animals these are not machines with keys in them
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#8
03-15-2010, 05:53 PM
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If it is Danzig the horse....I'm pretty sure I'd lose. If it is Danzig the DT member....I'm not sure. I've met her before and although she looked like she keeps in pretty good shape, I'd have the advantage of a longer stride......so.....it could go either way. Listen, based on her race Saturday, I just don't think RA's fitness looked as dismal as you and others seem to believe. The reason I don't think that is becasue she ran a fast race. Was she short? Yeah probably, but not ridiculously so, and I don't see how that ensures that she won't be "ready" for the next start.
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