March Madness picks thread

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

-10 2-2-2

I guess the Richmond game could have been worse. Nice call on the Cats game coach.

If Temple wasn't trying to run the clock out with 6:00 to go they would've covered easily. Gahhh.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

If Temple wasn't trying to run the clock out with 6:00 to go they would've covered easily. Gahhh.

It was an interesting strategy to say the least. Players got tentative and thats when Richmond made their run. Richmond is a solid team though. A shame they won't make the tourney.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

It was an interesting strategy to say the least. Players got tentative and thats when Richmond made their run. Richmond is a solid team though. A shame they won't make the tourney.

What? They're going to be wearing white jerseys in the first round. 6 or 7 seed.

I've changed my mind... Mississippi State gets my last spot, win or lose. When it comes down to it their neutral court performance outweighs Virginia Tech. Full bracket shortly.

Mississippi State doesn't deserve to go. To foul with 8 seconds left up 3 with UK having to go full court was ****ing retarded.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

It was an interesting strategy to say the least. Players got tentative and thats when Richmond made their run. Richmond is a solid team though. A shame they won't make the tourney.

Huh???

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

What? They're going to be wearing white jerseys in the first round. 6 or 7 seed.

I've changed my mind... Mississippi State gets my last spot, win or lose. When it comes down to it their neutral court performance outweighs Virginia Tech. Full bracket shortly.

Thanks Phil. You guys are the bracketologists. You really think they will be that high?

Ky got really lucky today.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Thanks Phil. You guys are the bracketologists. You really think they will be that high?

Ky got really lucky today.

They have an RPI of 21, went 5-3 against the RPI top 50, 12-6 in road/neutral games and were 13-3 in the 7th best conference. They'll be an 8 at worst.

Temple's really dangerous, they just played with their heads up their asses the last six minutes.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Huh???

I will be the first to tell you that i don't know much about bracketology although i love watching basketball. I am anxiously awaiting your blog this week when the pairings are set.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Georgia Tech +9
110/100

Temple -4
110/100

12-10-1
+5

Some good, some bad, clean slate for the tournament. My goodness the ACC blows. Dogs finished 10-0-1 in Greensboro.

[philcski]

Final bracket.
Last 4 in: Mississippi State, Cal, Minnesota, Utah State
Last 4 out: Virginia Tech, William & Mary, Florida, Illinois
Note * Clemson swapped with UNLV to avoid matchup with Wake Forest

REGION	S-CURVE	SEED	TEAM	POD	Times	REGIONAL	Times
MIDWEST	1	1	Kansas	Oklahoma City	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	63	16	Lehigh	Oklahoma City	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	32	8	San Diego State	Oklahoma City	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	33	9	Notre Dame	Oklahoma City	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	17	5	Texas A&M	New Orleans	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	48	12	Murray State	New Orleans	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	16	4	Wisconsin	New Orleans	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	49	13	Mississippi State	New Orleans	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	8	2	Georgetown	Providence	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	57	15	Vermont	Providence	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	25	7	Xavier	Providence	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	40	10	Oklahoma State	Providence	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	9	3	Villanova	Providence	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	56	14	UC Santa Barbara	Providence	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	24	6	Michigan State	Providence	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
	41	11	Utah State	Providence	Thu/Sat	St Louis	Fri/Sun
WEST	4	1	West Virginia	Buffalo	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	61	16	Robert Morris	Buffalo	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	29	8	Clemson	Buffalo	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	36	9	Old Dominion	Buffalo	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	20	5	Maryland	Spokane	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	45	12	Siena	Spokane	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	13	4	Temple	Spokane	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	52	13	Wofford	Spokane	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	5	2	Duke	Jacksonville	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	60	15	North Texas	Jacksonville	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	28	7	Texas	Jacksonville	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	37	10	Louisville	Jacksonville	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	12	3	New Mexico	Spokane	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	53	14	Sam Houston State	Spokane	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	21	6	Northern Iowa	Spokane	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
	44	11	Missouri	Spokane	Fri/Sun	Salt Lake	Thu/Sat
SOUTH	3	1	Syracuse	Buffalo	Fri/Sun	Houston	Fri/Sun
	62	16	East Tennessee State	Buffalo	Fri/Sun	Houston	Fri/Sun
	30	8	Marquette	Buffalo	Fri/Sun	Houston	Fri/Sun
	35	9	Georgia Tech	Buffalo	Fri/Sun	Houston	Fri/Sun
	19	5	Vanderbilt	San Jose	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	46	12	Minnesota	San Jose	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	14	4	Tennessee	San Jose	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	51	13	Oakland	San Jose	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	6	2	Kansas State	New Orleans	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	59	15	Ohio	New Orleans	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	27	7	UNLV	New Orleans	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	38	10	Wake Forest	New Orleans	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	11	3	Pittsburgh	San Jose	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	54	14	Houston	San Jose	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	22	6	Richmond	San Jose	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
	43	11	Cornell	San Jose	Thu/Sat	Houston	Fri/Sun
EAST	2	1	Kentucky	Milwaukee	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	64	16	Winthrop	Milwaukee (PIG vs #65 ARK-PINE BLUFF)	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	31	8	Florida State	Milwaukee	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	34	9	UTEP	Milwaukee	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	18	5	Butler	Jacksonville	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	47	12	California	Jacksonville	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	15	4	Purdue	Jacksonville	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	50	13	New Mexico State	Jacksonville	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	7	2	Ohio State	Milwaukee	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	58	15	Morgan State	Milwaukee	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	26	7	Gonzaga	Milwaukee	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	39	10	Washington	Milwaukee	Fri/Sun	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	10	3	Baylor	Oklahoma City	Thu/Sat	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	55	14	Montana	Oklahoma City	Thu/Sat	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	23	6	BYU	Oklahoma City	Thu/Sat	Syracuse	Thu/Sat
	42	11	Saint Mary's College	Oklahoma City	Thu/Sat	Syracuse	Thu/Sat

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Forget my rant...I just dislike college basketball, not hate, but I really think they should be compensated with more than a scholarship..anyone else agree at all?

Uhh...some of them are... kinda on the dow low...you know?

[ateamstupid]

My final prediction for the field:

So here we are, college basketball's version of Election Night. the dust has all but settled after 4+ months of college basketball, and we enter the final two hours before the brackets are revealed with most of the field set. But as always, there's a group of teams that will be fighting for the final 2 or 3 bids. This was one of the weaker bubbles in recent memory, so all of these teams will have fatal flaws, and the picture is a little blurrier than I allowed last night. But let's start with what we know. Here are your final consensus at-large locks:

Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, New Mexico, BYU, UNLV

If you're going by what most people are saying, that leaves 5 bids for this contingent: Utah State, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Florida, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Mississippi

Well I, for one, refuse to believe that UTEP is a lock and Utah State isn't. Let's compare the two.

• UTEP, 39 RPI, 111 SOS, 26-6 (15-1), 2-1 v RPI TOP 50, 8-4 v RPI TOP 100, 18-2 v RPI 101+, 11-4 R/N, 167 AVG RPI WIN, 73 AVG RPI LOSS
• UTAH STATE, 31 RPI, 100 SOS, 26-7 (14-2), 2-1 v RPI TOP 50, 10-5 v RPI TOP 100, 16-2 v RPI 101+, 10-6 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 168, 80 AVG RPI LOSS

Again, I'd love to hear the difference between those two teams. Conventional wisdom says Conference USA is better than the WAC. Conventional wisdom is dumb. The RPI ranks the WAC (10th) AHEAD of C-USA (11th). So if Utah State's name isn't on a line tonight, I don't expect UTEP's to be either. 4 bids.

Cal is in. I know, the Bears are only 1-6 against the RPI top 50, but there's no way they're getting left out. They've looked very strong since losing at Oregon State on 2/18 and their computer profile is stellar relative to other bubble teams. They'll be wearing road jerseys, but they'll be playing on Thursday or Friday. 3 bids.

Minnesota's getting in. The Gophers are hurt by only going 9-9 in the Big Ten and took a lopsided loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten final, but their run in the conference tourney, plus their absolute obliteration of Purdue on Saturday was enough to convince the committee that they're good enough to win games in the tournament. 2 bids.

Now it gets less clear cut. 2 bids are left for 8 pretty evenly matched teams. These are the teams that'll be sweating it out for the next hour or so. Here's their respective at-large credentials on paper:

• ILLINOIS, 75 RPI, 35 SOS, 19-14 (10-8), 5-9 v RPI TOP 50, 6-10 v RPI TOP 100, 13-4 v RPI 101+, 7-10 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 158, AVG RPI LOSS 56
• WAKE FOREST, 37 RPI, 29 SOS, 19-10 (9-7), 6-5 v RPI TOP 50, 9-10 v RPI TOP 100, 10-0 v RPI 101+, 6-8 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 131, AVG RPI LOSS 60
• VIRGINIA TECH, 60 RPI, 133 SOS, 23-8 (10-6), 3-4 v RPI TOP 50, 8-7 v RPI TOP 100, 15-1 v RPI 101+, 8-7 R/N, AVG RPI WIN AVG RPI WIN 170, AVG RPI LOSS 61
• MISSISSIPPI STATE, 56 RPI, 97 SOS, 23-11 (11-5), 2-5 v RPI TOP 50, 7-7 v RPI TOP 100, 16-4 v RPI 101+, 10-8 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 158, AVG RPI LOSS 73
• FLORIDA, 54 RPI, 33 SOS, 21-12 (9-7), 3-8 v RPI TOP 50, 8-10 v RPI TOP 100, 13-2 v RPI 101+, 8-8 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 155, AVG RPI LOSS 48
• SETON HALL, 61 RPI, 31 SOS, 19-12 (9-9), 4-9 v RPI TOP 50, 6-12 v RPI TOP 100, 13-0 v RPI 101+, 6-8 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 153, AVG RPI LOSS 29
• RHODE ISLAND, 40 RPI, 73 SOS, 23-9 (9-7), 1-5 v RPI TOP 50, 7-7 v RPI TOP 100, 16-2 v RPI 101+, 11-6 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 152, AVG RPI LOSS 61
• MISSISSIPPI, 62 RPI, 69 SOS, 21-10 (9-7), 2-6 v RPI TOP 50, 4-9 v RPI TOP 100, 18-2 v RPI 101+, 9-6 R/N, AVG RPI WIN 151, AVG RPI LOSS 40

I think we can cross out the last three teams in this group. Seton Hall had a good year against a tough schedule, but in the end, 6-12 against the top 100 isn't going to get it done. Rhode Island's one win against the top 50 won't cut it either, nor will Ole Miss' four wins against the top 100. So it's down to 5 teams for 2 bids.

Wake looks like it doesn't belong on the list with the other four, but the Demon Deacons were simply awful down the stretch, punctuated by an embarrassing blowout at the hands of 12-seed Miami (FL) in the ACC tournament's first round. Illinois got a much needed win against Wisconsin and took Ohio State to double overtime, but the Illini lost six of eight games to close the season. Virginia Tech went 10-6 in the ACC, but has nothing to show for its nonconference slate, and has an embarrassing average RPI win of 170. Mississippi State has a lot of bad losses, but put itself back into the discussion with a strong SEC tourney run capped by a brutal overtime loss against Kentucky. So who makes it?

It's an extremely tough call and I wouldn't really have any complaints about any pair from those five teams making it, but in the end I'll go with Florida and Wake Forest. The Gators had a decent nonconference output, played a tough schedule and split with Mississippi State in the head-to-head matchup. As difficult as it is to open the door for the Deacs with how bad they've been down the stretch, they simply have accomplished too much this season to banish them to the NIT.

As for the ones I left out, Illinois was the toughest not to include, since, as you'll recall, I had the Illini in the tournament yesterday. But they just had a few too many headscratching losses that nullified their big wins. Mississippi State has nobody to blame but itself if the Bulldogs don't get in. Losing to Rider, Western Kentucky, Arkansas and Auburn just outweighs their two quality wins and today's strong performance against Kentucky. And Virginia Tech, to me, is this year's Penn State. The Hokies' 10-6 record in conference is big, but their schedule was just too weak to justify putting them in over Florida or Wake.

There it is! Less than a half-hour to go. I'll be back later, of course, with first reactions to the brackets. Enjoy the show everybody, we made it!

65-team field prediction
AQs: Cornell, Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Murray State, Northern Iowa, Old Dominion, Siena, St. Mary's (CA), Wofford, North Texas, Butler, Oakland, Robert Morris, Montana, Lehigh, Houston, Vermont, Morgan State, Sam Houston State, Kansas, Ohio, Washington, San Diego State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, UC Santa Barbara, West Virginia, New Mexico State, Temple, Kentucky, Duke, Ohio State

At-larges: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, Utah State, California, Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest

[ateamstupid]

I think the last bid is between Florida and Illinois. I took the Gators, but wouldn't be surprised if the Illini get it.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

My final prediction for the field:

Good stuff

[ateamstupid]

32 out of 32 so far. Going into the last half of the bracket, things are looking good for Illinois/Mississippi State/Virginia Tech, bad for Utah State. Florida gets a 10, Minnesota an 11 and UTEP only a 12. Wake gets a 9.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

32 out of 32 so far. Going into the last half of the bracket, things are looking good for Illinois/Mississippi State/Virginia Tech, bad for Utah State. Florida gets a 10, Minnesota an 11 and UTEP only a 12. Wake gets a 9.

Guess they let Wake off the hook for the bad finish. I'm OK with that. Not sure I love the Florida 10 seed. I can buy them getting in but ahead of 5-6 bubble teams seems wrong. They have one good win since November.

[ateamstupid]

65 outta 65 baby. I'm coming for that ass Lunardi.

[philcski]

I got 64 out of 65. Swap Florida for Mississippi State. I have no problem with that selection by the committee whatsoever, but again I think Mississippi State deserved it head to head against Florida based on the win just this week.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

65 outta 65 baby. I'm coming for that ass Lunardi.

Sweet ****in job Joey. I thought the committee did a great job overall other than a few wacky seeds (which might have reasoning) and their new era of matching mid-major with mid-major.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

I got 64 out of 65. Swap Florida for Mississippi State. I have no problem with that selection by the committee whatsoever, but again I think Mississippi State deserved it head to head against Florida based on the win just this week.

I don't think there's any way in hell Florida deserved a 10, but their overall resume beats Mississippi State's by a good margin, which was enough to offset the head-to-head loss on Friday.