Zenyatta sure to be wronged by vindictive number nerds

[smuthg]

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

[northeastbound123]

Originally Posted by smuthg

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

I'm shocked, never thought she would break 100

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by smuthg

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

That's a downright horrible figure .. but I love it when we're off by that much.

Basically ... if you believe that Zenyatta ran a 102 today .. you believe that every single horse she beat ran by far the best race of their lives. You also have to believe that soundly beaten horses (behind a slow pace no less) in the San Felipe surged to career best numbers.

If Zenyatta gets a 102 ...

* 2nd place Dance to My Tune runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths in career start #30. She gets a 100

* 3rd place Floating Heart runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths.

* 4th place Striking Dancer runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths. And 7 full lengths better than her 2nd best prior race.

* 5th place Pretty Unusual runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths.

* 6th place Made For Magic - in career start #30 - runs the best race of her life

* 7th place Pretty Kathrine - while only managing to beat a single horse - ran the best race of her life by 4.5 lengths.

* 8th and last place finisher Gripsholm Castle - despite taking up sharply - runs the same figure while last at 9/1 odds today that she did while a dream trip 2nd at 18/1 odds in the Grade 2 La Canada last time out.

I think the figure maker did a wonderful job of not showing an Anti West Coast Bias or anti synthetic bias. It's very important to not make hopelessly stupid people think you might be biased in some way.

I just feel sorry for any bettors who will take the figures of the horses Zenyatta beat at face value when these horses run back. They'll all be "dropping in class" out of a "Grade 1" with "big figures" .. nice collection of future bet againsts.

[smuthg]

don't shoot the messenger... Even if I did quote a "tweet".

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by smuthg

don't shoot the messenger... Even if I did quote a "tweet".

Are you kidding!? It's the best news I've heard all morning. I'd rather be way off than dead on their number.

I really need to get a life. I'm trying to watch the OBS March under-tack show live on my comp .. and somethings not working.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Are you kidding!? It's the best news I've heard all morning. I'd rather be way off than dead on their number.

I really need to get a life. I'm trying to watch the OBS March under-tack show live on my comp .. and somethings not working.

All works yesterday/today were wind aided or hampered

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

All works yesterday/today were wind aided or hampered

Huge head wind Yesterday and Today But I think Yesterday Was Worse.
I was one of the Faithful THat was sitting there CLocking all the Gallop outs

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Huge head wind Yesterday and Today But I think Yesterday Was Worse.
I was one of the Faithful THat was sitting there CLocking all the Gallop outs

At least there was no rain

[10 pnt move up]

I came up with 92 give or take a point and thats was just based on the track and not looking at pp's.

so the winner of the third race, a career mdn, got around a 105?

The figures are meaningless, pretty much they are made up. Best is to use the last furlong come home time and then just old fashioned trip handicapping.

I have heard many references to RA was not geared for yesterday....and Shirreffs had Zenyatta cranked for the santa margarita?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think the figure maker did a wonderful job of not showing an Anti West Coast Bias or anti synthetic bias. It's very important to not make hopelessly stupid people think you might be biased in some way.

It may also have something to do with trying to preserve devotees' faith in their figures. If a speed figure is supposed to represent an accurate reflection of a horse's performance, I think they'd be hard pressed to have Rachel Alexandra come in with a figure higher than Zenyatta. This is especially the case when a Fair Grounds allowance race yesterday produced an identical time to the New Orleans Ladies, off a 49.1 half.

[cmorioles]

Whoever is making Beyers for SoCal routes is completely clueless, and has been for a long time.

[randallscott35]

Helps the price on Rachel.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

It may also have something to do with trying to preserve devotees' faith in their figures. If a speed figure is supposed to represent an accurate reflection of a horse's performance, I think they'd be hard pressed to have Rachel Alexandra come in with a figure higher than Zenyatta. This is especially the case when a Fair Grounds allowance race yesterday produced an identical time to the New Orleans Ladies, off a 49.1 half.

Nonsense. The Zardana-RA figure is rock solid.

The winner of the allowance race freaked and ran huge.

He ran multiple triple digit Beyers at Fair Grounds last year .. and was 2nd beaten just a length to Macho Again in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap.

They have the 2nd place horse in that alw race pairing up - the 3rd place horse going slightly backwards - and the 4th place horse going way backwards. It was a 7 horse field.

And in the days other route race .. they have a perfect trip 4/5 favorite winner in an 11 horse field winning with a 37.

People can pretend that Zardana isn't a real horse on dirt all they want. She's now 4-for-4 on the surface with her 4 wins coming by a combined 40 lengths.

[freddymo]

So what's the big deal that Rachel was 4 or 5 lengths slower then she will be 4 weeks? She ran ok, wasn't 100% fit, and needs some more work to get back to herself. Running a 100 fig off the bench and being at 90% is far from worrisome? I also think that she could have won yesterday if Borel would have sent her earlier...so if she was 1length faster all would be well in horsey land?

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So what's the big deal that Rachel was 4 or 5 lengths slower then she will be 4 weeks? She ran ok, wasn't 100% fit, and needs some more work to get back to herself. Running a 100 fig off the bench and being at 90% is far from worrisome? I also think that she could have won yesterday if Borel would have sent her earlier...so if she was 1length faster all would be well in horsey land?

.....i agree, i thought he strangled her.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So what's the big deal that Rachel was 4 or 5 lengths slower then she will be 4 weeks? She ran ok, wasn't 100% fit, and needs some more work to get back to herself. Running a 100 fig off the bench and being at 90% is far from worrisome? I also think that she could have won yesterday if Borel would have sent her earlier...so if she was 1length faster all would be well in horsey land?

Per DRF in the story by Marcus Hersh:

"Borel said he rode to instructions, and would have preferred to have let Rachel take the lead earlier.

'I wanted to go on past the speed horse early,' Borel said. 'I'd have got by her anytime and my filly could have gone on, but they wanted me to wait and not get into her until the sixteenth pole.'"

Have to wonder if Assman will be happy with Borel throwing him under the bus.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pointman

Per DRF in the story by Marcus Hersh:

"Borel said he rode to instructions, and would have preferred to have let Rachel take the lead earlier.

'I wanted to go on past the speed horse early,' Borel said. 'I'd have got by her anytime and my filly could have gone on, but they wanted me to wait and not get into her until the sixteenth pole.'"

Have to wonder if Assman will be happy with Borel throwing him under the bus.

That is exactly what I thought. Hopefully he gets a pass because he gets pulled and people will go apeshit!

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by pointman

Per DRF in the story by Marcus Hersh:

"Borel said he rode to instructions, and would have preferred to have let Rachel take the lead earlier.

'I wanted to go on past the speed horse early,' Borel said. 'I'd have got by her anytime and my filly could have gone on, but they wanted me to wait and not get into her until the sixteenth pole.'"

Have to wonder if Assman will be happy with Borel throwing him under the bus.

Originally Posted by Danzig

from bloodhorse:

There was some doubt from Rachel Alexandra’s camp after the race as to whether she would still be pointed toward the Apple Blossom.
"We'll have to be cautious. We want to do what's right for the mare," Asmussen said. "The filly's lacking fitness. It was my job to have her there, and I didn't do it.
“How tired she is off of that will be established in the coming days. She’s not where I thought she was and if I had thought she’d get beat she wouldn’t run. You take her back, you evaluate her, you see how her mood is, her diet, how she goes back to the racetrack, how she breezes. No crystal ball could see that far ahead."

I don't think anyone was questioning the ride. So I don't know either why Borel chimed in and insisted on rubbing it in futher on Assman. According to the quote from the Bloodhorse originally posted by Dani, Ass was accepting the blame for her being short. I wonder if Borel's personal feelings for the horse will now end up costing him the mount on her.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So what's the big deal that Rachel was 4 or 5 lengths slower then she will be 4 weeks? She ran ok, wasn't 100% fit, and needs some more work to get back to herself. Running a 100 fig off the bench and being at 90% is far from worrisome? I also think that she could have won yesterday if Borel would have sent her earlier...so if she was 1length faster all would be well in horsey land?

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Zenyatta is probably more Ironhead Heyward than Barry Sanders .. but yeah, Smith looked vintage Ramon Dominguez-esque with that ride.

I would be a lot more critical of Smith's ride ... if only I hadn't seen Dominguez win like hundreds of Delaware races on short priced horses just like that. Almost never getting stopped and weaving to victory while winning handily instead of just looping around.

I'll tell you this much ... let's say Zardana never ran in New Orleans. What happens?

1.) Rachel Alexandra wins by 12 lengths under a lazy hand ride from Borel.

2.) The final time comes back less than stellar. She gets the same 100 Beyer but a lot of people foolishly assume she would have run a lot faster "if asked" She runs hard to the wire regardless of urging.

3.) Everyone would be falling over themselves to mock that pathetic horse who finished 2nd to Zenyatta. The horse had been 4th or worse in like 10 of her last 11 races.

4.) The line wouldn't be Zenyatta (-170) VS RA (+150) .. RA would certainly be at least a slight favorite.

5.) DrugS would become alarmingly unopinionated on this match-up. Probably just mumbling up something about how good a trainer Shirreffs is when pointing...and how cool the race will be to watch.

Damn good analysis from you both. Quoted for truth.

I thought the NO Ladies figure was a bit high but it actually does fit well when considering the quality of the allowance field and what Rachel had done at FG in the past. Also, clearly Zardana is a very good dirt filly- better than any of us had predicted (except for perhaps Drugs who gave her a 95 "Brasil Figura".)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

(except for perhaps Drugs who gave her a 95 "Brasil Figura".)

I wish I gave her a 95.

Looking at when she was foaled and when those races took place .. it was basically a 2yo filly going 7 furlongs.

Afleet Alex won the Grade 1 Hopeful at 7fs with a 90. Ashado won the Grade 1 Spinaway at 7fs with a 84. Vineyard Haven won the Hopeful with a 84.

I think there was pretty strong proof that her numbers could be as high as 85 in those races... which would place her on par with our Grade 1 caliber 2yo's.

On top of that .. she was a monumental flop when she first came over here. She beat a grand total of just 3 horses in her first four races in the country.

Yet, she slowly got better and better to the point of winning a Grade 2 on cushion track two starts back. She looked like a true turf/synthetic hater who was very slow to adjust and develop.