Rachel Alexandra-Zenyatta set for Apple Blossom confrontation

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

“Her gallops have been very strong,’’ Asmussen said. “She’s not 100 percent fit for this race. We’re aware of that. She’s had six works in six months. But she’s a very physical horse. She is Rachel. I am very concerned about her fitness level.’’

Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff horses since 2004:

96-for-643 (14.9% wins) $1.22 ROI - basically you lose 2.5 times more than the takeout - or 39% on every dollar bet.. and 643 races is a big sample.


Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff routers since 2004:

17-for-159 (10.7% wins) $0.65 ROI - you're losing 67.5% on every dollar bet. An unbelievable amount.


It's pretty obvious that Asmussen has very little talent with getting horses ready off of a layoff ... I guess just look at the silly choice of workmate he choose for RA's last work - and the curious comment he made about expecting her to go 1:12 .. she'd have needed like a 21 flat final quarter to do that.

The real bright spot for RA though - is that I believe these Asmussen layoff stats become undermined in her case because Asmussen is also downright terrible 2nd off the layoff and downright terrible 3rd off of the layoff.

He's an ultimate 'strike while the irons hot' kind of trainer .. but when his horses get hurt or go sour and need time .. you can almost forget them. In RA's case - there was no injury and was no going sour.

One of the most talented and special 2yo's I've ever seen was Tiz Wonderful. The piss poor job Asmussen did with him when he brought him back from injury the following year was the stuff of legend.

[Sightseek]

Really? I thought Discreet Cat left them all in the dust?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff horses since 2004:

96-for-643 (14.9% wins) $1.22 ROI - basically you lose 2.5 times more than the takeout - or 39% on every dollar bet.. and 643 races is a big sample.


Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff routers since 2004:

17-for-159 (10.7% wins) $0.65 ROI - you're losing 67.5% on every dollar bet. An unbelievable amount.


It's pretty obvious that Asmussen has very little talent with getting horses ready off of a layoff ... I guess just look at the silly choice of workmate he choose for RA's last work - and the curious comment he made about expecting her to go 1:12 .. she'd have needed like a 21 flat final quarter to do that.

The real bright spot for RA though - is that I believe these Asmussen layoff stats become undermined in her case because Asmussen is also downright terrible 2nd off the layoff and downright terrible 3rd off of the layoff.

He's an ultimate 'strike while the irons hot' kind of trainer .. but when his horses get hurt or go sour and need time .. you can almost forget them. In RA's case - there was no injury and was no going sour.

One of the most talented and special 2yo's I've ever seen was Tiz Wonderful. The piss poor job Asmussen did with him when he brought him back from injury the following year was the stuff of legend.

Looking at these type of stats is meaningless.. For it to have meaning refine it to look at stakes calibur types. Out of the sample of 643 how many were animals that had won or placed in Graded stakes? Do I really care how Asmussen does getting laimos that suck back to the races?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Looking at these type of stats is meaningless.. For it to have meaning refine it to look at stakes calibur types. Out of the sample of 643 how many were animals that had won or placed in Graded stakes? Do I really care how Asmussen does getting laimos that suck back to the races?

0-for-14 when they return in Graded Stakes.

8-for-95 with a $0.72 ROI when they return in all stakes.

3-for-34 with a $0.44 ROI in 2010 with all 4+ month layoffs.

0-for-11 with layoffs returning in route races in 2010.

Terrible every way you slice it.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

0-for-14 when they return in Graded Stakes.

8-for-95 with a $0.72 ROI when they return in all stakes.

3-for-34 with a $0.44 ROI in 2010 with all 4+ month layoffs.

0-for-11 with layoffs returning in route races in 2010.

Terrible every way you slice it.

That's strong data right there.

[Smooth Operator]

Go all-in against RA and try to score the mother lode???

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

One of the most talented and special 2yo's I've ever seen was Tiz Wonderful. The piss poor job Asmussen did with him when he brought him back from injury the following year was the stuff of legend.

Ugh, don't get me started on that again.

That was beyond being a piss poor job. That was criminal.

On the bright side, you can breed to him now for pretty reasonable, something I feel you probably won't be able to do in five years.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Ugh, don't get me started on that again.

That was beyond being a piss poor job. That was criminal.

On the bright side, you can breed to him now for pretty reasonable, something I feel you probably won't be able to do in five years.

I strongly AGREE.

[Thunder Gulch]

The real question is Asmussen's record with 2nd off a layoff?????????????

[South Beach Luv]

wife got her Rachel/Zenyatta cards in the mail today, I was pretty confused about why she was getting mail from herself

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff horses since 2004:

96-for-643 (14.9% wins) $1.22 ROI - basically you lose 2.5 times more than the takeout - or 39% on every dollar bet.. and 643 races is a big sample.


Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff routers since 2004:

17-for-159 (10.7% wins) $0.65 ROI - you're losing 67.5% on every dollar bet. An unbelievable amount.


It's pretty obvious that Asmussen has very little talent with getting horses ready off of a layoff ... I guess just look at the silly choice of workmate he choose for RA's last work - and the curious comment he made about expecting her to go 1:12 .. she'd have needed like a 21 flat final quarter to do that.

The real bright spot for RA though - is that I believe these Asmussen layoff stats become undermined in her case because Asmussen is also downright terrible 2nd off the layoff and downright terrible 3rd off of the layoff.

He's an ultimate 'strike while the irons hot' kind of trainer .. but when his horses get hurt or go sour and need time .. you can almost forget them. In RA's case - there was no injury and was no going sour.

One of the most talented and special 2yo's I've ever seen was Tiz Wonderful. The piss poor job Asmussen did with him when he brought him back from injury the following year was the stuff of legend.

These baffle me considering how good the guy is with first-timers.