3/5-7 (CD): Derby Future Wager - Pool 2

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Probably the single most disappointing performance by any horse this year was Amen Hallelujah's first dirt race last weekend.

This is a horse that won on synthetic for Asmussen with a good figure - Asmussen's as brutal as it gets on synthetic.

This is a horse that won on synthetic for Dutrow with a good figure - Dutrow's 3-for-44 with a $0.39 ROI lifetime on synthetic.

I think - statistically speaking - going 1st dirt for Dutrow and having shown early speed in those prior syn races ... anything short of a 186 Beyer would have been a let down.

In all seriousness ... I think Amen Hall is clearly the MLW of the Oaks.

Tidal Pool has the one incredible race that came from nowhere and her trainer is surprisingly talking like Frankel would ... quoting ragozin sheet figures and skipping her next race to give her "more rest" ... at 20/1 .. she's a little interesting.

Blind Luck is better than Stardom Bound .. has a good dirt race as well .. but will be severly overbet because of her decorated resume. Christine Daae still has to improve a lot to justify the hype. Forget the rest.

I might play Streaker.

[VOL JACK]

Both of you have yet to hit on the horse I plan to make my coup.
Thanks!

[Dunbar]

TheGreek has odds up on all the individual Derby entries in Pool 2. Unlike the Derby Future Wager, these are static (you get whatever the odds are when you bet)

Horse, Odds-to-1
Aikenite 65.5
American Lion 35.5
Buddys Saint 16.15
Caracortado 20.5
Connemara 25.5
Conveyance 16.15
D'Funnybone 30.5
Dave in Dixie 22.5
Discreetly Mine 25.5
Dublin 20.5
Eskendereya 9.25
Jackson Bend 25.5
Lookin at Lucky 14.15
Nextdoorneighbor 40.5
Nobles Promise 30.5
Odysseus 35.5
Radiohead (GB) 30.5
Rule 25.5
Setsuko 52.5
Sidneys Candy 20.5
Super Saver 16.15
Tempted to Tapit 52.5
Vale of York (Ire) 30.5

TheGreek is not offering the "All Others" bet. If you think fair odds for "All Others" should be 4-1, then TheGreek's odds constitute an 11.5% takeout. Different "All Others" assumptions lead to different vig conclusions. If you think 6-1 is fair for "All Others", then the vig on TheGreek's odds is 7%.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

TheGreek has odds up on all the individual Derby entries in Pool 2. Unlike the Derby Future Wager, these are static (you get whatever the odds are when you bet)

Horse, Odds-to-1
Aikenite 65.5
American Lion 35.5
Buddys Saint 16.15
Caracortado 20.5
Connemara 25.5
Conveyance 16.15
D'Funnybone 30.5
Dave in Dixie 22.5
Discreetly Mine 25.5
Dublin 20.5
Eskendereya 9.25
Jackson Bend 25.5
Lookin at Lucky 14.15
Nextdoorneighbor 40.5
Nobles Promise 30.5
Odysseus 35.5
Radiohead (GB) 30.5
Rule 25.5
Setsuko 52.5
Sidneys Candy 20.5
Super Saver 16.15
Tempted to Tapit 52.5
Vale of York (Ire) 30.5

TheGreek is not offering the "All Others" bet. If you think fair odds for "All Others" should be 4-1, then TheGreek's odds constitute an 11.5% takeout. Different "All Others" assumptions lead to different vig conclusions. If you think 6-1 is fair for "All Others", then the vig on TheGreek's odds is 7%.

Several of those odds can be beaten at World Sports Exchange (wsex.com):
Caracortado 25-1
Conveyance 30-1
D'Funnybone 40-1
Dave In Dixie 30-1
Super Saver 30-1

World Sports Exch is no longer "A" rated at SportsbookReview, however. (Some slow-pay problems.)

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

I wouldn't take 400-1 on D'Funnybone

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I wouldn't take 400-1 on D'Funnybone

Sure you would. Or should. If you take 400-1, you can give me 200-1, which I'd gladly take. Then you can guarantee yourself a profit either way.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Both of you have yet to hit on the horse I plan to make my coup.
Thanks!

Biofuel or Beautician?

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Biofuel or Beautician?

No...those where my two key horses in the BC Juvy Fillies.

I like Devil May Care for the Oaks.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

No...those where my two key horses in the BC Juvy Fillies.

I like Devil May Care for the Oaks.

Shes ok, her trip at Fairgrounds was horrendous but she did no running.
STREAKER IS THE GOODS.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Shes ok, her trip at Fairgrounds was horrendous but she did no running.
STREAKER IS THE GOODS.

Good Luck. She is OK...but no way she wins the Oaks 7 weeks from now.

Just think if they ever breed her dam to a decent stallion.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Good Luck. She is OK...but no way she wins the Oaks 7 weeks from now.

Just think if they ever breed her dam to a decent stallion.

I like your horse, but if they faced off tomorrow, going 9f at Gulf I would bet Streaker.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

No...those where my two key horses in the BC Juvy Fillies.

I like Devil May Care for the Oaks.

I'm throwing a few dollars her way because the FG race was too bad to believe. She ran her race before they even reached the gate.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm throwing a few dollars her way because the FG race was too bad to believe. She ran her race before they even reached the gate.

NT

WHat about my horse?