3/5-7 (CD): Derby Future Wager - Pool 2

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In all seriousness ... I think Amen Hall is clearly the MLW of the Oaks.

I do have doubts that horses sired by Montbrook can win Grade 1 races at 9 furlongs. Her 4 wins ranged from 6 to 8 furlongs (one turn). Her two 8.5 furlongs (two turns)/Grade 1 starts resulted in third place finishes.

Per DRF article after the Santa Ynez victory:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do...2&subs=0&arc=1

"Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stables said the cut-back in distance for Amen Hallelujah in the Santa Ynez was the difference on Saturday. He said she may be kept in one-turn races in 2010."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It's thinking like this ^ that leads to horses like Hotep to be severly overrated ... because they're by A. P. Indy.

You're putting way too much emphasis in pedigrees with your distance projections. The horse just disputed a lively pace with Bickersons ... put her away with ease .. and drew off in the stretch to win by 6+ lengths going a mile.

You're really worried that she'll struggle with an extra furlong because of Ivarone quotes, a pedigree, and the fact that she finished 3rd in her only two two-turn races ... both in Grade 1 races ... and for trainers who have horrendous synthetic stats?

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's thinking like this ^ that leads to horses like Hotep to be severly overrated ... because they're by A. P. Indy.

You're putting way too much emphasis in pedigrees with your distance projections. The horse just disputed a lively pace with Bickersons ... put her away with ease .. and drew off in the stretch to win by 6+ lengths going a mile.

You're really worried that she'll struggle with an extra furlong because of Ivarone quotes, a pedigree, and the fact that she finished 3rd in her only two two-turn races ... both in Grade 1 races ... and for trainers who have horrendous synthetic stats?

I do like your Asmussen/Dutrow synthetic winner moving to dirt angle. Wish I would have thought of that before betting on the Davona Dale while the horse was still an overlay. She won't be an overlay in the Oaks future pool. I didn't think the pace in the Davona Dale was that fast but I know the fractional times at Gulfstream can be funky.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yeah - there's no run-up going a 1-turn mile at GP. That's why the opening quarter always comes back impossibly slow in those races.

The pace was lively enough early - and Amen and Bickersons ran a spectacular 3rd quarter together. Both of them had a right to fold in the stretch .. Bickerson did - and Amen Hall drew off and won in final time faster than Graded Stakes older females went 30 minutes prior.

I understand her pedigree is sprint speed oriented .. but I doubt an extra furlong will do her in.

I'm not betting her in the Oaks futures - but I would rate her more likely than any other filly to win it.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You're really worried that she'll struggle with an extra furlong because of Ivarone quotes, a pedigree, and the fact that she finished 3rd in her only two two-turn races ... both in Grade 1 races ... and for trainers who have horrendous synthetic stats?

Wouldn't the Ivarone quote be concerning for those thinking about playing the filly in the future pool because it indicates that they might not even be pointing her toward the Oaks? Your analysis of why the horse could get 9f seems solid, but if the connections don't share those thoughts she might not be a smart play here.

As for the filly's chances to be a good 2-turn horse, I actually don't think the pedigree is a complete negative for 8.5+. Overall it certainly seems geared toward one-turn, but the dam was a stakes winner going 9f.